Category: Politics

Which Avenger is Each 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidate?

Image Credit: Marvel

There are now 23 major candidates running for the Democratic nomination for president, and one or two more that seem likely to run or have expressed interest in doing so. That’s a lot of people to keep track of. Some are big names who have been around a while, and some are small names you probably will never hear from again. But they all got me thinking: in this, the year of 2019, there is really only one other newsmaking phenomenon that has the same star power, intrigue, cultural ubiquity, and overwhelmingly-large cast of characters: the Avengers.

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What if Pence Was Dropped from the Ticket in 2020?

In the summer of 2016, Indiana governor Mike Pence was selected as Donald Trump’s running mate. This choice was not to be made lightly, but reporting in June highlighted the struggles then-candidate Trump was facing in selecting a vice presidential candidate. Mainstream moderate Republicans had still refused to endorse him, a simmering consensus emerged that it was not an election Republicans were likely to win in November, and with the 2016 Senate race still in play, pulling candidates away from other key races was potential political suicide. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions (all early backers of Trump compared to most members of the party) were among the last names left on the shortlist, and the aim of the Trump campaign was clear. It would need someone who would “balance his brash populist persona with a political profile that includes deep experience in Washington or ties to the party establishment”, according to The Washington Post. We don’t really know whether Christie or Gingrich were ever made an offer to be on the ticket, or if they outright declined because they thought he would lose, or even whether Tom Cotton or eventually-to-be-sentenced Michael Flynn were ready to go on as vice president until Trump changed his mind at the last minute. However it played out, Mike Pence was selected, Donald Trump was elected, and we now live in a world where Pence is a heartbeat away from the presidency.

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How Game Theory Dooms the Challenger in Presidential Elections

Assuming the incumbent president runs for reelection, roughly every eight years there is an election in the United States that pits an incumbent president against the other party. In the upcoming 2020 election, that other party will be the Democrats, who are seeking to unseat President Donald Trump. Donald Trump is a historically unpopular president and the economy may be lessthanstellar come 2020, two factors that should indicate a competitive race. But there’s a problem – there could be around 15-20 candidates competing for the Democratic nomination to run against the incumbent president.1For the sake of this exercise, we are ignoring Bill Weld’s Republican primary challenge against Donald Trump, which seems unlikely to turn into much. An incumbent president has not lost renomination since Chester A. Arthur lost to James G. Blaine in 1884, but incumbent presidents have faced significant primary challenges that may have lead to their downfall, which I’ll discuss later.

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Sherrod Brown Could’ve Been the Perfect Democrat for 2020, But He Waited Too Long to Make a Move

(Photo Credit: Tony Dejak / AP)

Sherrod Brown will not be running for president. The Ohio Senator announced yesterday through surrogates that he was content with his role in the Senate and lacks the “consuming drive” to seek the highest office in the land. This announcement came as a shock on a number of levels. Brown hadn’t formally launched an exploratory committee, but he was engaged on a listening tour that took him through the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, where he extolled his trademark “dignity of work” concept, a New Deal-esque mantra that sounds more like a slogan that would be taped to the side of Woody Guthrie’s guitar than headlining the campaign of a legislator with over forty years of government experience. But Brown was considered a serious 2020 contender even before he embarked on this journey, and many observers viewed his status as a Midwestern Democrat with labor union bona fides as the perfect antidote to Donald Trump’s populist appeal.

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Locations of the Party Conventions Don’t (Really) Matter

Headlines broke last week about Midwestern Democrats doubling down on their push for the 2020 Democratic National Convention (DNC) to be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Milwaukee is one of three finalists under consideration by the Democrats along with Houston and Miami, and is the only city among the three to have never held a party convention before. Meanwhile, the Republicans landed on Charlotte, North Carolina as the host city of the 2020 Republican National Convention (RNC) back in 2018 after briefly considering Las Vegas (which also bid for the DNC but withdrew).

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How We Did On Our 2018 Senate Projections

Though the election was over a month ago, several close races have been forced into overtime. Additional ballots were counted, recounts were triggered in Florida, and Mississippi held the final round of its special election for the Senate at the end of November (not to mention tight House races across the country that weren’t settled until well after election).1And even still we may not be completely out of the woods… the North Carolina 9th District election may not be settled until well into the new Congress, possibly require an entirely new election in the district, or the House of Representatives to decide for itself. But with all of the dust finally settled, let’s unpack what we got wrong, what we can be proud of, and what we learned for the next go around.

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