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Politics

Initial Rating: Indiana Senate Race

Thomas McDermott Jr. v. Todd Young Safe Republican Look at a map of Indiana’s congressional districts and you’ll probably be surprised to see a little patch of blue, far away from Indianapolis, in the far Northwest corner of the state. ...
Politics

Initial Rating: Iowa Senate Race

We were perhaps too generous to Iowa in our 2020 forecasts, rating both its Senate race and presidential race as toss-ups due to an array of competitive polls and an assumption that it would revert to the mean.
Politics

Initial Rating: Kansas Senate Race

Mark Holland v. Jerry Moran Safe Republican As incumbent Republican Senator Jerry Moran vies for his third term, many readers may wonder whether the landslide defeat of the anti-abortion amendment on Kansas’ early-August primary ballot is a sign of Republican ...
Politics

Initial Rating: Idaho Senate Race

David Roth v. Mike Crapo Safe Republican Among the least interesting Senate races this cycle is the one in Idaho. (What an intriguing lead that inspires you to continue reading, right?) Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo is seeking his fifth ...
Politics

Initial Rating: Nevada Senate Race

For a year we’ve said this would be the most competitive this cycle, and then gone farther to argue that the Nevada Senate race is actually the most important race in the entire 2022 election. That hasn’t changed.
Politics

Initial Rating: Arizona Senate Race

There’s good news for Democrats in the Grand Canyon State where their incumbent (and favorite) senator, former astronaut Mark Kelly, is up for election to a full term after his special election victory a couple years ago.
Politics

Initial Rating: North Dakota Senate Race

Katrina Christiansen v. John Hoeven Safe Republican It wasn’t that long ago – 2010, in fact – when North Dakota had two Democratic senators (and a Democratic Congressman to boot) despite having not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since ...
Politics

Initial Rating: Illinois Senate Race

Kathy Salvi v. Tammy Duckworth Safe Democrat Up for the first time since she defeated incumbent Republican Senator Mark Kirk in 2016, Democrat Tammy Duckworth has had quite a stint in office. A veteran who lost both legs as a ...
Politics

Initial Rating: New York Senate Race

As late as last year, there was some chatter that Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has emerged as the face of the Democratic Party’s left-wing, would challenge Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in New York’s Democratic Senate primary.
Politics

Initial Rating: Alabama Senate Race

In 2020, we rated Alabama's Senate election, which pit incumbent Democrat Doug Jones against former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville, as “likely R” because of Jones’ possible incumbent advantage and the peculiarities of college football loyalty.
Politics

Initial Rating: Arkansas Senate Race

Last cycle, we profiled the Arkansas Senate race between Republican incumbent Tom Cotton and Libertarian candidate Ricky Harrington Jr. – a blowout in favor of Cotton thanks to the fact the Democratic nominee, John Mahony, dropped out after the filing deadline and could not be replaced.
Politics

Initial Rating: California Senate Race

Oftentimes when a governor appoints a senator due to a vacancy, it can lead to a fierce primary fight within the incumbent party or the elevation of a weak candidate that can lead to some strange results, like a Democrat winning in Alabama or a Republican winning in Massachusetts.