Archive
Nevada’s Senate Race Isn’t Quite as Competitive as 2022, But It’s Still Closer Than You Think
Democrat Jacky Rosen has an almost unbelievable lead in polls, why?
The Smallest Swing State is Also the Most Complicated
Nevada no longer clearly favors Democrats at the presidential level, but it is a shining example of how effort, issues, and relationships still matter.
New Jersey Isn’t a Swing State, But It Could Shift Toward Trump in 2024
The Garden State could use some more polling!
Probability Updates for Our Models
We've incorporated probability and odds of winning on our models.
No Swing State Has Rebuked the GOP as Clearly as Arizona in the Trump Era. Will This Hold?
We’ve put a lot of thought into Arizona and landed with this: any tiny shift could change the outcome.
My Musings on Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2024 NFL Season
The Keystone State is Key to 2024
The three most common words you read and hear between now and Election Day will be “Pennsylvania,” “Pennsylvania,” and “Pennsylvania.”
In Michigan, Democrats Face One of Their Biggest Obstacles to Keeping the Senate: A Generic Republican
In 2022, one of the reasons why the Republicans struggled in so many competitive Senate races is that they simply did not run good candidates. Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania, Blake Masters of Arizona, and Herschel Walker of Georgia all had ...
Texas is Democrats’ Best Shot to Pick Up a Seat This Cycle. No, We’re Not Kidding.
If our headline caught you off guard, then strap in. We’ve got a lot to catch you up on! At the time we’re putting this out, the race for control of the Senate clearly favors Republicans. Working with 49 seats ...
Scandal and Democratic Infighting Have Made New Jersey’s Senate Race Surprisingly Competitive
The prelude to the New Jersey race was dramatic, but the state hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972. Does the GOP have an opening?
In Arizona, Republicans Had a Chance to Learn from Their 2022 Mistakes. Instead, They Nominated Kari Lake for the Senate
Arizona Republicans keep running bad candidates in otherwise winnable races, 2024 is no exception.
One Electoral Vote in Nebraska Could Make or Break a Harris Victory
Could one electoral vote really be that important?
Rick Scott is Famous for Eking Out Wins—2024 Could Be Different
For one, Rick Scott's last narrow margin was in a cycle that clearly favored Democrats. 2024 ain't that.
North Carolina Offers Harris Her Best Opportunity to Expand the Map
The Tar Heel State has been something of a white whale for national Democrats this century. It's still Harris' lowest hanging fruit if she wants to expand the 2020 map.
Larry Hogan Might Be Maryland Democrats’ Favorite Republican, but Even That Might Not Help Him Become a Senator
Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980. Could 2024 change that?
My Musings on Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season
Being “Boring” Helps Democrats Win Nationwide—in Wisconsin, Not So Much
Republicans seem to do better in Wisconsin when turnout increases, this creates risk for Tammy Baldwin
In Pennsylvania’s Senate Race, the GOP Finally Got Their Man. It May Not Be Enough Against Bob Casey.
It’s not very often that you get a do-over in electoral politics, but Republicans will be getting something close to that in Pennsylvania in 2024. In the state’s last Senate election, in 2022, the party went through an ugly primary ...
2024 Senate Election Model
We're back and excited to cover this Senate election. Use our tool to make your own assumptions and happy electioneering!
How Our 2024 Senate Model Works—And How You Can Use It Too
A primer on the basics.
2024 Senate Model: Comprehensive Methodology and Approach
How we combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to beat other election models, and how you can too.
Republican Feuds, a Criminal Trial, and Shifting Demographics Keep Georgia in Play for Harris
Georgia epitomises how Democrats have expanded the map in the Trump era. That doesn't mean it's easy to win.