Archive
Texas is Democrats’ Best Shot to Pick Up a Seat This Cycle. No, We’re Not Kidding.
If our headline caught you off guard, then strap in. We’ve got a lot to catch you up on! At the time we’re putting this out, the race for control of the Senate clearly favors Republicans. Working with 49 seats ...
Scandal and Democratic Infighting Have Made New Jersey’s Senate Race Surprisingly Competitive
The prelude to the New Jersey race was dramatic, but the state hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972. Does the GOP have an opening?
In Arizona, Republicans Had a Chance to Learn from Their 2022 Mistakes. Instead, They Nominated Kari Lake for the Senate
Arizona Republicans keep running bad candidates in otherwise winnable races, 2024 is no exception.
One Electoral Vote in Nebraska Could Make or Break a Harris Victory
Could one electoral vote really be that important?
Rick Scott is Famous for Eking Out Wins—2024 Could Be Different
For one, Rick Scott's last narrow margin was in a cycle that clearly favored Democrats. 2024 ain't that.
North Carolina Offers Harris Her Best Opportunity to Expand the Map
The Tar Heel State has been something of a white whale for national Democrats this century. It's still Harris' lowest hanging fruit if she wants to expand the 2020 map.
Larry Hogan Might Be Maryland Democrats’ Favorite Republican, but Even That Might Not Help Him Become a Senator
Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980. Could 2024 change that?
My Musings on Week 1 of the 2024 NFL Season
Being “Boring” Helps Democrats Win Nationwide—in Wisconsin, Not So Much
Republicans seem to do better in Wisconsin when turnout increases, this creates risk for Tammy Baldwin
In Pennsylvania’s Senate Race, the GOP Finally Got Their Man. It May Not Be Enough Against Bob Casey.
It’s not very often that you get a do-over in electoral politics, but Republicans will be getting something close to that in Pennsylvania in 2024. In the state’s last Senate election, in 2022, the party went through an ugly primary ...
2024 Senate Election Model
We're back and excited to cover this Senate election. Use our tool to make your own assumptions and happy electioneering!
How Our 2024 Senate Model Works—And How You Can Use It Too
A primer on the basics.
2024 Senate Model: Comprehensive Methodology and Approach
How we combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to beat other election models, and how you can too.
Republican Feuds, a Criminal Trial, and Shifting Demographics Keep Georgia in Play for Harris
Georgia epitomises how Democrats have expanded the map in the Trump era. That doesn't mean it's easy to win.
Wisconsin’s Lost Some Electoral Relevance, but It’s Still a Bellwether
In a high turnout presidential election, expect Wisconsin to be close
Texas is Unlikely to Go to Harris—It’s Still Worth Keeping an Eye On
The trend towards Democrats in the Lone Star state is undeniable, but it still favors Republicans
Michigan Presents Both Harris and Trump with Unique Risks and Opportunities
Demographic trends and a fraying coalition pose risks for Harris in Michigan, though Republican missteps provide an opening
Our 2024 Presidential Election Model is Back!
Biden dropping out caused a lot of modeling chaos but our coconut-adjusted presidential election model is now back up and running!
A Clash of Factors Bely an Increasingly Republican Florida
The Sunshine State generates a lot of noise, let's distinguish between what matters and what doesn’t.
Maine’s Second Congressional District is a Ruby Red Drop in a Sea of New England Blue
Trump will triumph in this rebellious district, but an underperformance could make for an interesting race for second place.
Minnesota Democrats Are Working with a High Floor. Will It Hold Up in 2024?
Harris has the advantage in Minnesota so long as she can stay above water nationally. In a cycle like this, that’s not a sure thing.
Colorado is a Blue State Now
Gone are the days of presidential candidates traversing the Centennial State to win its electoral votes.