Lars Emerson
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The Postrider Roundup: Trump’s Nominees, Biden’s Big Pardon, and Reflecting on January 6
The Postrider‘s Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito discuss Trump’s controversial nominees, checking in on Pete Hegseth and digging into FBI nominee Kash Patel, then discuss Biden’s controversial pardon of his son and what meaning January 6 holds nearly four years ...
The Postrider Roundup: Trump’s Second Cabinet
The Postrider‘s Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito discuss Donald Trump’s picks for his second cabinet, breaking down who they’re cautiously optimistic about and who they’re scared/angry are even being considered at all.
Allan Lichtman Says He Changed What the 13 Keys Predicted for 2016—The Timeline Says Otherwise
Lichtman says that he made the decision to start predicting the electoral vote “on the fly,” and didn’t have time to update his October 2016 prediction paper. But Social Education told us the paper was submitted and edited after he publicly announced his prediction.
The Postrider Roundup: After the 2024 Election
The Postrider‘s Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito debrief the 2024 election, its aftermath, and its consequences. They reflect on the media ecosystem’s coverage of the election and its results, the impact of Donald Trump in the grand scheme of American ...
Why The Postrider Matters
In the aftermath of the 2024 election, we offer a reflection on the modern media environment, what we try to bring to the table, and why grounded analysis from the team next door matters more than ever.
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Our Final Factor Updates
After many months of twists and turns, we’re almost at the end of the line – the generic ballot is back to about a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control ...
The Postrider Roundup: 2024 Election Preview Extravaganza
In The Postrider Roundup‘s inaugural episode, Michael Lovito and Lars Emerson discuss the impending elections for president, Senate, the House of Representatives, and a handful of governor’s mansions. They discuss what an odd last few weeks of the campaign it’s ...
One Week Out: Some Factor Updates
The presidential and Senate races are coming down to the wire – the generic ballot is below a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control of both the White House and ...
The Postrider Roundup: Trailer
Running Mates: Episode 17 – 2024 – Vance v. Walz
Like a phoenix rising from the ashes four years later, Running Mates is back to talk about the 2024 vice presidential picks!
Three Weeks Out: Some Factor Updates
With a little under three weeks to Election Day, we have some factor updates and adjustments to add to our comprehensive election model.
Our Full Election Model is Out: What It Says and How We Got Here
Now that all of the states are live and the generic ballot has tightened, let's talk about what our model says about the election.
Is This the End of the Road for Jon Tester?
There was a time when it seemed like the Montana Senate race could have been the undercard in control for the Senate. Before West Virginia’s Democratic (now independent) Senator Joe Manchin announced he would not run for reelection this year, ...
Nevada’s Senate Race Isn’t Quite as Competitive as 2022, But It’s Still Closer Than You Think
Democrat Jacky Rosen has an almost unbelievable lead in polls, why?
The Smallest Swing State is Also the Most Complicated
Nevada no longer clearly favors Democrats at the presidential level, but it is a shining example of how effort, issues, and relationships still matter.
Probability Updates for Our Models
We've incorporated probability and odds of winning on our models.
No Swing State Has Rebuked the GOP as Clearly as Arizona in the Trump Era. Will This Hold?
We’ve put a lot of thought into Arizona and landed with this: any tiny shift could change the outcome.
Texas is Democrats’ Best Shot to Pick Up a Seat This Cycle. No, We’re Not Kidding.
If our headline caught you off guard, then strap in. We’ve got a lot to catch you up on! At the time we’re putting this out, the race for control of the Senate clearly favors Republicans. Working with 49 seats ...
One Electoral Vote in Nebraska Could Make or Break a Harris Victory
Could one electoral vote really be that important?
Rick Scott is Famous for Eking Out Wins—2024 Could Be Different
For one, Rick Scott's last narrow margin was in a cycle that clearly favored Democrats. 2024 ain't that.
Being “Boring” Helps Democrats Win Nationwide—in Wisconsin, Not So Much
Republicans seem to do better in Wisconsin when turnout increases, this creates risk for Tammy Baldwin