Lars Emerson
contact@thepostrider.com
2024 Senate Election Model
We're back and excited to cover this Senate election. Use our tool to make your own assumptions and happy electioneering!
How Our 2024 Senate Model Works—And How You Can Use It Too
A primer on the basics.
2024 Senate Model: Comprehensive Methodology and Approach
How we combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to beat other election models, and how you can too.
Wisconsin’s Lost Some Electoral Relevance, but It’s Still a Bellwether
In a high turnout presidential election, expect Wisconsin to be close
Texas is Unlikely to Go to Harris—It’s Still Worth Keeping an Eye On
The trend towards Democrats in the Lone Star state is undeniable, but it still favors Republicans
Our 2024 Presidential Election Model is Back!
Biden dropping out caused a lot of modeling chaos but our coconut-adjusted presidential election model is now back up and running!
A Clash of Factors Bely an Increasingly Republican Florida
The Sunshine State generates a lot of noise, let's distinguish between what matters and what doesn’t.
Colorado is a Blue State Now
Gone are the days of presidential candidates traversing the Centennial State to win its electoral votes.
Republicans are Favored, but Vulnerable, in Alaska
Ranked-choice voting eliminates the effect of third party spoilers, but uncertainty cuts both ways.
The Path to Putting Utah in Play is Palpable, but Unlikely
Exciting things are afoot in the Beehive State.
In New Mexico, Demographic Mirages Give Way to a State that Favors Democrats
On the surface, the Land of Enchantment looks like a Trump pickup opportunity, but a closer look reveals unusual demographics which clearly favor Biden.
Veepmaxxing for Electoral Advantage
How vice presidential candidates boost the margin in their home state and how tickets can maximize the electoral impact of this effect.
Was This—Somehow—the Best Play?
Did Democrats somehow stumble into an enviable position in the 2024 election?
The 2024 (Emergency) Democratic Vice Presidential Power Index
Because who said The Postrider couldn't do rapid response?
How Our (Emergency) 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Power Index Works
We’re about 100 days out from a presidential election, and the Democrats have to build almost an entirely new ticket from scratch. We didn’t think we’d be here either, but luckily we’re never ones to shy away from discussion of ...
What Happens to Our 2024 Presidential Election Model Now?
Well, this is awkward. We’ve spent months of our time building out a model of the grand electoral rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Now that Biden has dropped out at the last minute, where does that leave us, ...
Is the Biden Campaign Really Relying on the Debunked 13 Keys to Make This Decision?
If Biden's stature is so weak that they are actually pointing to a debunked model to justify staying in, it should cause immediate concern.
Biden’s Path Forward: It’s Time to Address Age Head On
When in doubt, run to the truth.
Letter: Allan Lichtman’s Response
On Wednesday, we published a piece concerning Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys” model and the 2016 election. In the spirit of open discussion, we’ve decided to publish a response Professor Lichtman sent to us shortly after our piece was published: Thank ...
Allan Lichtman is Famous for Correctly Predicting the 2016 Election. The Problem? He Didn’t
The history professor is one of the few credited with predicting Trump's 2016 win. There's just one problem: he's rewritten history to obfuscate that his model only predicted the popular vote, which Trump lost.
You can read Professor Lichtman’s response here.
When Will the Rust Belt’s Electoral Supremacy End?
Recently, we dove into something of a political obsession of ours: the “crossover” between the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt – and tried to figure out at what point Democrats would have an easier time winning the Sun Belt ...
Is the Rust Belt Still the Lowest Hanging Fruit for Biden?
“The Rust Belt or bust” is the mantra of conventional political wisdom that just will not die out... does it still hold water?