State of the Union addresses in the modern era are – at best – relatively innocuous exercises in American political ritual that occasionally generate memeable moments. At worst, they are useless fulfilments of a “from time to time” constitutional requirement1From “time to time” could be every two years… or once a term, for that matter. Also, nothing says it has to be an address before the entire Congress! Thomas Jefferson and most of the presidents after him just sent copies of what they wanted to say to both chambers. Woodrow Wilson was the president who turned it into a spectacle but he also just didn’t give it for a couple years, and a couple presidents after him just sent written ones too. As the method of communication went from newspaper to radio to television, presidents like Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson really injected the made-for-audience flare into it, eventually culminating in the routine primetime television program we get every year, and simultaneously turning it from an administrative chore to a quasi-campaign speech. that result in little actual legislative change and contribute absolutely nothing to our national political discourse other than what the major outlets deem are “the top takeaways.” Pro tip: they’re stretching it for a headline!

We lean on reality here at The Postrider and we really try to eschew the “what if” headlines of modern reporting, but we are also cognizant of the fact that the State of the Union is a political event, and we try to cover those when we can as a matter of form. Acknowledging both these things, we have some ground-up analysis about President Joe Biden’s second State of the Union address, the first since Republicans took control of the House of Representatives. Consider it a reminder of how little it ultimately will mean (no matter how many promises were made) and a medium to glean what’s already happening behind the scenes of the speech, even if it’s now a bit more public.

As expected, bipartisanship was frequently invoked. Congratulations went out to Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell for their achievements at the top of the speech and the president emphasized his bipartisan legislative achievements like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. However, this was met for most of the speech with Kevin McCarthy’s resting frown face. At a particularly heated moment, McCarthy eventually capitulated into muttering “that’s not true” and smirking while shaking his head. There was chatter going into the speech that Republicans were counseled to keep their cool and avoid spectacle, in contrast to embarrassing utterances from their caucus in years prior — which Biden staffers secretly wished to see a repeat of (and arguably got). Also of note, McCarthy peacefully shaking his head and “shh”ing his caucus when he clearly wanted them to behave at instances in the speech.

Biden announced a new requirement that all products used in federal infrastructure projects should be sourced from supplies “made in America.” This sounds good coming from an American president, but is an objectively weak and onerous policy from a foreign relations, budgetary, and economic standpoint. The fact of the matter is that America cannot produce many core components cost efficiently, nor should we – and this ultimately costs jobs in the long run. Suggesting we shouldn’t be allowed to import them from Canada or Mexico is xenophobic nonsense masquerading as patriotism.

This ties in to perhaps the most notable throughline of the speech: retail issues were pervasive and increasingly hard to ignore as he weaved them across most planks as the address went on. The speech was rife with detailed and personal appeals regarding prescription drug affordability, healthcare premiums, and the economy. Unlike the existential speeches of George W. Bush and the high minded idealism of Barack Obama, Biden made the astute political calculation to define the speech largely on individual issues that have a clear impact on Americans’ lives. The speech’s most powerful moments came from Biden’s palpable empathy, something that has been a cornerstone of his political career. He related to his guests’ personal confrontations with gun violence, political violence, and pediatric cancer and described in unsettling starkness “the talk” that people of color have to have with their children about interacting with law enforcement. There seems to be a consensus emerging from the people around the president (both as a candidate and as a leader) that this unique ability to grieve and rise with people is part of what made him the man for the moment in 2020, and has the potential to – if not heal the nation from division – win over the public.

Notably, Biden did not pivot to foreign policy to the degree one might have expected for someone leading a now-divided federal government. Ukraine got a couple sentences, China a few more, but it was genuinely interesting how little the president’s plenary foreign policy domain came up. In a speech geared less at convincing members of Congress and more at appealing to the American people compared to the other party ahead of the president’s likely reelection campaign, Biden’s understated political calculus here is not to be underestimated. 

But this focus on the nitty gritty facing America did make for some weird moments… junk fees received a stunning amount of time. This seemingly minute issue arguably received more focus in the speech than Ukraine as the president railed against “resort fees” at hotels that “aren’t even resorts” (a chuckle from McCarthy here), service fees at concerts (do you hear that, Millennials?!), airline fees, and more. The economic case for this is a bit murkier, given that the costs will likely just be accounted for in higher prices, but it was notable that such a specific issue made it into the biggest speech of the year at the expense of major international concerns.

Perhaps seeking to reconcile the retail with the highfalutin reality of governing, Biden evoked the debt ceiling and attempted awkwardly to connect the issues at the heart of the pedantic federal debt impasse to the ways a default would affect average Americans. The president poked Republicans on the wrangling amongst their members as to whether entitlements like Medicare and Social Security should be on the table in the debt ceiling negotiations. Over the course of a brouhaha in which the chamber seemed to veer out of order, Biden engaged in an impromptu live negotiation with the Republican caucus on whether they’d really be willing to do that and a high stakes game of chicken left the president with the impression that Social Security and Medicare were off the table going forward. This allowed the president to wrap himself around popular domestic programs, take credit for what Republicans would have capitulated to anyway (yes, some Republicans want to cut those entitlements, but they are a clear minority in their party), and claim a win from what was a moment of chaos in the speech, all while framing the debt ceiling issue (which most Americans probably don’t care much about – though they should) in a way relatable to voters.

But, given this speech will probably be the last major address from the president before he announces his reelection campaign, and his emphasis on retail and everyday issues as opposed to national ideology seems to be a hint of what is to come, it was notable who was absent. There was no mention of Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, the prospective frontrunners in the Republican presidential nomination – nor was there much focus on the unpopular or polarizing aspects of their candidacies. A subtle nod towards supporting transgender Americans here, and a brief dig about the level of the debt brought on by his predecessor there, but truly not much more than that. By ignoring them and instead focusing on the practical, the president effectively triangulated his message towards the median voter while appeasing the base. It’s hard to overstate this particular advantage of incumbency. Likely facing no primary, and with 20 months to drive the point home, all Biden has to do is broadly appeal to the American public without antagonizing his base and rise above the partisan fray as the nation’s leader rather than spend his waking hours obsessing over his opponents. This State of the Union was a taste of how that starts.