Category: Politics
Larry Hogan Might Be Maryland Democrats’ Favorite Republican, but Even That Might Not Help Him Become a Senator
Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980. Could 2024 change that?
Being “Boring” Helps Democrats Win Nationwide—in Wisconsin, Not So Much
Republicans seem to do better in Wisconsin when turnout increases, this creates risk for Tammy Baldwin
In Pennsylvania’s Senate Race, the GOP Finally Got Their Man. It May Not Be Enough Against Bob Casey.
It’s not very often that you get a do-over in electoral politics, but Republicans will be getting something close to that in Pennsylvania in 2024. In the state’s last Senate election, in 2022, the party went through an ugly primary ...
2024 Senate Election Model
We're back and excited to cover this Senate election. Use our tool to make your own assumptions and happy electioneering!
How Our 2024 Senate Model Works—And How You Can Use It Too
A primer on the basics.
2024 Senate Model: Comprehensive Methodology and Approach
How we combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to beat other election models, and how you can too.
Republican Feuds, a Criminal Trial, and Shifting Demographics Keep Georgia in Play for Harris
Georgia epitomises how Democrats have expanded the map in the Trump era. That doesn't mean it's easy to win.
Wisconsin’s Lost Some Electoral Relevance, but It’s Still a Bellwether
In a high turnout presidential election, expect Wisconsin to be close
Texas is Unlikely to Go to Harris—It’s Still Worth Keeping an Eye On
The trend towards Democrats in the Lone Star state is undeniable, but it still favors Republicans
Michigan Presents Both Harris and Trump with Unique Risks and Opportunities
Demographic trends and a fraying coalition pose risks for Harris in Michigan, though Republican missteps provide an opening
Our 2024 Presidential Election Model is Back!
Biden dropping out caused a lot of modeling chaos but our coconut-adjusted presidential election model is now back up and running!
A Clash of Factors Bely an Increasingly Republican Florida
The Sunshine State generates a lot of noise, let's distinguish between what matters and what doesn’t.
Maine’s Second Congressional District is a Ruby Red Drop in a Sea of New England Blue
Trump will triumph in this rebellious district, but an underperformance could make for an interesting race for second place.
Minnesota Democrats Are Working with a High Floor. Will It Hold Up in 2024?
Harris has the advantage in Minnesota so long as she can stay above water nationally. In a cycle like this, that’s not a sure thing.
Colorado is a Blue State Now
Gone are the days of presidential candidates traversing the Centennial State to win its electoral votes.
Republicans are Favored, but Vulnerable, in Alaska
Ranked-choice voting eliminates the effect of third party spoilers, but uncertainty cuts both ways.
The Path to Putting Utah in Play is Palpable, but Unlikely
Exciting things are afoot in the Beehive State.
In New Mexico, Demographic Mirages Give Way to a State that Favors Democrats
On the surface, the Land of Enchantment looks like a Trump pickup opportunity, but a closer look reveals unusual demographics which clearly favor Biden.
New Hampshire is New England’s Most Purple State, but It Seems to Be Getting Bluer
New Hampshire almost went for Trump in 2016, it swung decisively away from him four years later, where will it fall in 2024?
Ohio is the Face of Democrats’ White Working Class Voter Problems
So much for “as goes Ohio, so goes the nation.”
Maine is Old, White, and Rural, but Ranked-Choice Voting Makes it Harris’ to Lose
Republican gains have been offset by an electoral system that favors moderates.
Suburbanites and Govvies Give Democrats an Advantage in Virginia
It's hard to imagine a world where Trump wins the Old Dominion unless he manifests a clear popular vote victory.