Category: Politics

New Hampshire almost went for Trump in 2016, it swung decisively away from him four years later, where will it fall in 2024?

So much for “as goes Ohio, so goes the nation.”

Republican gains have been offset by an electoral system that favors moderates.

It's hard to imagine a world where Trump wins the Old Dominion unless he manifests a clear popular vote victory.

How vice presidential candidates boost the margin in their home state and how tickets can maximize the electoral impact of this effect.

Did Democrats somehow stumble into an enviable position in the 2024 election?

Because who said The Postrider couldn't do rapid response?

We’re about 100 days out from a presidential election, and the Democrats have to build almost an entirely new ticket from scratch. We didn’t think we’d be here either, but luckily we’re never ones to shy away from discussion of ...

Back in February, I wrote a piece titled “Democrats Do Not, In Fact, Have a Better Option Than Biden,” a fairly direct response to arguments made by Nate Silver and Ezra Klein that President Joe Biden should abandon his reelection ...

Well, this is awkward.  We’ve spent months of our time building out a model of the grand electoral rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Now that Biden has dropped out at the last minute, where does that leave us, ...

If Biden's stature is so weak that they are actually pointing to a debunked model to justify staying in, it should cause immediate concern.

When in doubt, run to the truth.

On Wednesday, we published a piece concerning Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys” model and the 2016 election. In the spirit of open discussion, we’ve decided to publish a response Professor Lichtman sent to us shortly after our piece was published: Thank ...

The history professor is one of the few credited with predicting Trump's 2016 win. There's just one problem: he's rewritten history to obfuscate that his model only predicted the popular vote, which Trump lost.

You can read Professor Lichtman’s response here.

Recently, we dove into something of a political obsession of ours: the “crossover” between the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt – and tried to figure out at what point Democrats would have an easier time winning the Sun Belt ...

“The Rust Belt or bust” is the mantra of conventional political wisdom that just will not die out... does it still hold water?

Trump would be wise to wait until the week before the convention, just like most campaigns do.

Our 2024 Presidential Election Model is live! The Postrider‘s Politics Editor and Editor-in-Chief unpack the basics, talk about their philosophy, why they’ve beaten the heavy-hitting models the last three cycles, and have some fun explaining how you can use the map too. ...

We're back and excited to cover this cycle. Use our tool to make your own assumptions and happy electioneering!

A primer on the basics.

How we combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to beat other election models, and how you can too.

The Republican primary comes to an end not with a bang, but with a whimper, as all major candidates but former President Donald Trump have dropped out and he has accumulated the delegates necessary to receive the nomination. After it ...