Category: Politics
One Week Out: Some Factor Updates
The presidential and Senate races are coming down to the wire – the generic ballot is below a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control of both the White House and ...
The Postrider Roundup: Trailer
Running Mates: Episode 17 – 2024 – Vance v. Walz
Like a phoenix rising from the ashes four years later, Running Mates is back to talk about the 2024 vice presidential picks!
Three Weeks Out: Some Factor Updates
With a little under three weeks to Election Day, we have some factor updates and adjustments to add to our comprehensive election model.
Our Full Election Model is Out: What It Says and How We Got Here
Now that all of the states are live and the generic ballot has tightened, let's talk about what our model says about the election.
Ohio Could Be Democrats’ Saving Grace in the Senate. Or It Could Be Sherrod Brown’s Last Stand.
In 2019, I wrote a piece about Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown’s decision to not seek the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. In the piece, I argue that Brown was uniquely well-suited to run the kind of campaign Democrats would have to ...
Is This the End of the Road for Jon Tester?
There was a time when it seemed like the Montana Senate race could have been the undercard in control for the Senate. Before West Virginia’s Democratic (now independent) Senator Joe Manchin announced he would not run for reelection this year, ...
Nevada’s Senate Race Isn’t Quite as Competitive as 2022, But It’s Still Closer Than You Think
Democrat Jacky Rosen has an almost unbelievable lead in polls, why?
The Smallest Swing State is Also the Most Complicated
Nevada no longer clearly favors Democrats at the presidential level, but it is a shining example of how effort, issues, and relationships still matter.
New Jersey Isn’t a Swing State, But It Could Shift Toward Trump in 2024
The Garden State could use some more polling!
Probability Updates for Our Models
We've incorporated probability and odds of winning on our models.
No Swing State Has Rebuked the GOP as Clearly as Arizona in the Trump Era. Will This Hold?
We’ve put a lot of thought into Arizona and landed with this: any tiny shift could change the outcome.
The Keystone State is Key to 2024
The three most common words you read and hear between now and Election Day will be “Pennsylvania,” “Pennsylvania,” and “Pennsylvania.”
In Michigan, Democrats Face One of Their Biggest Obstacles to Keeping the Senate: A Generic Republican
In 2022, one of the reasons why the Republicans struggled in so many competitive Senate races is that they simply did not run good candidates. Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania, Blake Masters of Arizona, and Herschel Walker of Georgia all had ...
Texas is Democrats’ Best Shot to Pick Up a Seat This Cycle. No, We’re Not Kidding.
If our headline caught you off guard, then strap in. We’ve got a lot to catch you up on! At the time we’re putting this out, the race for control of the Senate clearly favors Republicans. Working with 49 seats ...
Scandal and Democratic Infighting Have Made New Jersey’s Senate Race Surprisingly Competitive
The prelude to the New Jersey race was dramatic, but the state hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972. Does the GOP have an opening?
In Arizona, Republicans Had a Chance to Learn from Their 2022 Mistakes. Instead, They Nominated Kari Lake for the Senate
Arizona Republicans keep running bad candidates in otherwise winnable races, 2024 is no exception.
One Electoral Vote in Nebraska Could Make or Break a Harris Victory
Could one electoral vote really be that important?
Rick Scott is Famous for Eking Out Wins—2024 Could Be Different
For one, Rick Scott's last narrow margin was in a cycle that clearly favored Democrats. 2024 ain't that.
North Carolina Offers Harris Her Best Opportunity to Expand the Map
The Tar Heel State has been something of a white whale for national Democrats this century. It's still Harris' lowest hanging fruit if she wants to expand the 2020 map.
Larry Hogan Might Be Maryland Democrats’ Favorite Republican, but Even That Might Not Help Him Become a Senator
Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980. Could 2024 change that?
Being “Boring” Helps Democrats Win Nationwide—in Wisconsin, Not So Much
Republicans seem to do better in Wisconsin when turnout increases, this creates risk for Tammy Baldwin