We’ll have lots to say in the weeks to come about the incredibly strange midterm that continues to unfold.1We, like you, are still waiting to see where the House, two Senate races, and the Arizona governor election comes down). But with Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto’s successful reelection in Nevada, we can confidently say that control of the Senate will remain – narrowly – in Democratic hands.

The incumbent Democrat, who took over Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid’s seat after his retirement in 2016, overcame a polling disadvantage, a strong (at least compared to many GOP candidates this cycle) opponent, and a Republican-leaning electoral environment. Her opponent, former Attorney General Adam Laxalt, may not have lacked controversy, but he coalesced support from Republicans early on and was able to walk a thin line ideologically, both appealing to the Trump wing of the party and hedging on the abortion issue that may have dragged many of his compatriots down. Contrary to the unsuccessful playbook of Republican candidates like Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and (pending a runoff election) Herschel Walker in Georgia, Laxalt overperformed compared to recent Republican efforts in Nevada. Cortez Masto’s narrow victory is not something to be discounted for its significance, nor ignored for its decisiveness: it’s both a big deal and a warning to Democrats.

We stuck to our guns all year pointing to the Nevada Senate race as the most important and most competitive Senate race this cycle. Cortez Masto’s victory secures control of the upper chamber of Congress for Democrats, keeps a competitive seat with a strong incumbent in the party’s hands for six more years, and gives them an opportunity to confront the longstanding challenges they face in Nevada in going forward.

On the same ballots that Cortez Masto narrowly won, the state’s incumbent Democratic governor, Steve Sisolak, lost reelection. His underperformance relative to the slate of Las Vegas-area congressional Democrats and many of the other statewide positions should raise some eyebrows. Though Democrats carried the treasurer, attorney general, and secretary of state races, Republicans picked up control of the lieutenant governor’s office, with Stavros Anthony defeating incumbent Lisa Cano Burkhead, and the state controller’s office with Andy Matthews defeating Ellen Spiegel. Unseating Sisolak is the big win for Nevada Republicans, though – an incumbent governor has not lost a general reelection there since 1982.2Incumbent Republican Governor Jim Gibbons was primaried out of office by Brian Sandoval after a number of controversies in 2010, and thus did not run in the general election – but the Republican Party retained control of the seat when Sandoval won that November. 

The new Republican governor-elect, Joe Lombardo, is the sheriff of Clark County (home to Las Vegas). His campaign focused on crime, policing, gun rights, election integrity, and eventually moderated into a check against Sisolak’s more stringent pandemic policies and Democrats’ state government trifecta. Lombardo will have to work with a state legislature that is controlled by Democrats, so it’s plausible he’ll astutely shift into a position similar to that of newly reelected Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers, a Democrat who faces a Republican dominated legislature and who just surprised many by winning reelection in the Badger State. He, like Evers, may be constrained from a policy standpoint and forced to the table on state budget issues – albeit by a less rabid legislature.

Democrats’ retention of the other state level offices speaks more to the utter distaste many voters had for the alternatives who were an array of incoherent, unqualified, and dangerous election deniers. Nevada suffered disproportionately during the pandemic and its COVID-19 policies remained more stringent longer than in other Democrat-controlled states. The state, like much of the Mountain West, was hammered by high gas prices and higher inflation. Cortez Masto may have had a large cache of funds, but Nevada was primed to punish Democrats for governing over this era of economic and societal tumult, and it delivered Republicans their only gubernatorial gain of this election cycle.

So how did Cortez Masto come to narrowly survive what seems to best be characterized as a neutral environment in Nevada? The dust will need to settle a bit more to have a complete picture but I think it’s fair to say that Cortez Masto’s relative moderation, credibility on environmental and women’s issues, and her ability to bring home positive returns for a desert state that punches far above its weight made her the more practical choice for voters who wanted a change in direction at the state level but felt better represented in the federal government by someone with a stable track record. 

Even though Cortez Masto was easier to connect to President Biden, who is unpopular in Nevada, and the abortion issue she stressed was at times overshadowed by the state’s  economic woes, she and her congressional counterparts in Clark County avoided the COVID-19 backlash that Sisolak faced as the state’s executive, and his metaphorical sacrifice may have kept them all standing. Cortez Masto failed to excite many with her campaign, but she did stick to her message and stay on focus, while Laxalt veered between the crazy wing of the party and giving off Mini-Me Blake Masters vibes. Cortez Masto’s competitiveness in Washoe County (home to Reno), which she did not carry in 2016, but she will in this election, also helped add to the stark urban-rural divide she needed to win reelection.

But perhaps most underrated is her keen ability to know and understand her state. This is part of the reason we at The Postrider like to incorporate a personality and story-driven approach into our race ratings as opposed to models focusing only on polls, funding, partisan lean, or fundamentals that many other outlets favor. 

The reason we never moved Nevada’s Senate race into the Lean Republican category was because the truth is that personalities matter, especially in smaller states like Nevada. Born and raised in Las Vegas, Cortez Masto has spent her professional life serving the Nevada, and developed strong relationships with the powerful players like unions, diverse coalitions of voters, interest groups, local business, big business, and more. An underreported and representative anecdote to this point’s credit is that while the Nevada Police Union declared “no confidence” in Governor Sisolak, they endorsed Cortez Masto.

Cortez Masto’s victory concludes a yearlong effort to cover the Nevada Senate race as accurately as we could: telling you how competitive it would be, trying to show you why it was so important to the Democratic Party’s future, and hinting it could very well determine the fate of the Senate. We hope you’ve appreciated this specific coverage, especially as it proved particularly astute in the last few days and weeks, and we look forward to talking more about the 2022 midterms in the weeks to come.