Barring any shocking developments, deaths, or party-switches, Republicans will hold 222 seats in the House of Representatives when the 118th Congress convenes in January. A caucus of 222 is notable for two reasons: first, it gives Republicans only four members more than the smallest possible majority in a chamber of 435; second, it is exactly the same number Democrats had at the beginning of the 117th Congress. 

If you’ve followed politics over the last couple years, you may have kept up with the incessant drama in the Senate, where Democratic swing votes like Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema and West Virginia’s Joe Manchin often left Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer in a bind as he tried to wrangle support for President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda. What you may not have noticed is House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s stunning ability to corral her own slim majority on the other side of the building. Despite having to deal with a much more diverse bench of Democrats ranging from moderates like Maine’s Jared Golden and Alaska’s Mary Peltola to self-identified socialists like New York’s Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Michigan’s Rashida Tlaib, Pelosi’s control over the Democratic House caucus produced remarkably little drama compared to that on the other side of the Capitol.

Pelosi’s knowledge of her caucus and the precision with which she controlled it is the stuff of legend. The first woman to be elected speaker, and the first person since the legendary Sam Rayburn to serve two nonconsecutive stints in the role, Pelosi never lost a floor vote while she was in the role. As Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich once conceded, “You could argue she’s been the strongest speaker in history… she has shown more capacity to organize and muscle, with really narrow margins, which I would’ve thought impossible.” Her successor as the leader of the Democratic caucus, New York’s Hakeem Jeffries, will undeniably recognize her as a tough act to follow. But it leaves her successor as speaker of the House – whoever Republicans settle on to lead their caucus – in a nearly impossible and unenviable position. That is, if they can even settle on a speaker to begin with.

Enter California Republican and current House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, the presumptive (and self-described) speaker-elect. As the leader of the party that enters the majority, in any other year, his campaign for Speaker would be a mere formality. And yet, McCarthy’s actually been skipped over before. In 2015, when then-Republican Speaker John Boehner announced he’d resign over his conflict with the further-right “Freedom Caucus,” eyes turned to then-House Majority Leader McCarthy. McCarthy sought the position but the Freedom Caucus refused to back him, prompting him to withdraw from the race and Republicans coalesced around Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan, their vice presidential candidate in the last election. So goes one story. Another, which remains unconfirmed and unsubstantiated (but nonetheless useful to mention because rumors matter in politics – just ask Hillary Clinton) was an alleged affair between McCarthy and another member of the Republican caucus, which was used to scare McCarthy out of the race, or at least hold over him for concessions. The real kicker is that at this time Republicans held 247 seats in the House, a margin of 30 over what they needed at the time, and a multiple higher than the margin of five they’ll have to navigate in 2023. So, whether one reason for McCarthy’s 2015 stumble, both, or neither reason is true – it points to the same question today: can Kevin McCarthy succeed now?

The Whip Count

Let’s start with what we know today. McCarthy needs 218 votes to secure the speakership – or rather, a majority of those voting for speaker. Assuming all members vote (and accounting for the death of reelected Virginia Democrat Donald McEachin at the end of November), the magic number is still 218. If Democrats or Republicans miss the vote, abstain, or vote “present,” this number will change, but it remains the best baseline we currently have given what we know. This means, with a caucus of 222, he can afford four defections from his party. Unluckily for him, he’s already got exactly that many…  

1. Andy Biggs (Arizona): Former Freedom Caucus chair Andy Biggs ran against McCarthy when the Republicans held their internal vote to select their leader in the upcoming Congress and got 31 votes (McCarthy received 188). He also penned a letter noting that “I cannot vote for the gentleman from California, Mr. McCarthy” in American Greatness so…
   
   Watch: Biggs is a hard no and indicated he won’t vote present or miss the vote. The last update on this was that Biggs plans to run for speaker himself anyway.
   
   
2. Matt Gaetz (Florida): Gaetz is pretty insistent he won’t support McCarthy. The far-right congressman is no ally of McCarthy, even though McCarthy left him with his judiciary committee assignment despite Gaetz actively being under federal criminal investigation, and doesn’t look like he’ll waver from that.
   
   Watch: Gaetz is also a hard no, but has not indicated if he’d vote “present” on the floor.
   
   
3. Bob Good (Virginia): Never a good sign when I have to start an explanation with “in a recent interview with Steve Bannon” but alas, in a recent interview with Steve Bannon, Good – another far-right member of the Republican caucus – said he would not be supporting Kevin McCarthy. He also said he’d vote for an alternative candidate (probably Biggs), making him a firm no.
   
   Watch: These are pretty serious words, so McCarthy can count on losing one more vote.
   
   
4. Ralph Norman (South Carolina): Another easy one for us to track down, Norman has serious issues with McCarthy’s budgetary position, calling it (and “runaway federal spending”) a “cancer” in the country. Norman, yet another far-right congressman, who once pulled out a loaded gun during a meeting with constituents, told Politico he was a “hard” no on McCarthy and that “it’s too late” for him to change his mind.
   
   Watch: Norman also noted he’d attend the vote and wouldn’t be voting present, so McCarthy is down another hard vote here. Norman did couch his “it’s too late” for him to support McCarthy with a “right now” but that’s not particularly comforting for McCarthy after Norman’s hardline position on him.
   
   

Assuming three Republicans actively vote for someone else on the floor and Gaetz votes present (which may be optimistic thinking for McCarthy), McCarthy would win 218 votes and the speakership. However, he still needs to account for Montana’s Matthew Rosendale, who is already off bashing McCarthy on Twitter and saying he is not the leader to stand up to Democrats. Sure, some concessions by McCarthy could win over Rosendale – but might that alienate someone else? There’s no shortage of other Republicans who are lukewarm on McCarthy (not to mention the 31 who actively voted against him in the leadership elections). Texas’ Chip Roy is hard to read on this, as he nominated Biggs in the aforementioned leadership vote, and is making noise on how McCarthy plans to handle the upcoming debt limit. Scott Perry, the Pennsylvania Congressman who is the chair of the Freedom Caucus, has threatened that McCarthy does not have support from 218 members and dauntingly hinted that “I’m not making my position known.” Louisiana’s Clay Higgins insinuated McCarthy will need to shift to the right to get his support, which may entail leaving quite a few people burned in the moderate flank of the party. North Carolina’s Dan Bishop, Georgia’s Andrew Clyde, and Alabama’s Barry Moore are also members to keep an eye on, as they’re not being very forthcoming either.

Even if support from Donald Trump has given McCarthy the backing of hardliners like Ohio’s Jim Jordan and Georgia’s Marjorie Taylor Greene (Jordan wants to take the gavel of the House Judiciary Committee as soon as humanly possible; Greene will do whatever Trump tells her, except, apparently, get vaccinated), the fact he still faces a threat of losing because he’s not conservative enough is a problem for another reason. Weaved into this narrative is the tug in McCarthy’s other direction, from the moderate wing, who just witnessed their party barely eke out a majority in a midterm election against an unpopular incumbent president from the other party because hardliners and far-right candidates dragged the party down at the state level. Nebraska’s Don Bacon said that if the Republicans can’t agree on any candidate during a floor vote, he’d be willing to work with Democrats to choose a moderate Republican to be speaker. Seizing the moment, current Democratic Whip Jim Clyburn poked at McCarthy, suggesting he seek out support from Democrats in order to make up the difference. Not much chance of that happening either.

McCarthy on a Tightrope

Where does that leave McCarthy? Right now, he does not appear to have the votes to become the speaker. But a prospective speaker this close to the finish line can wield some pretty serious tools, making concessions on committee assignments, making up leadership roles, setting an agenda, holding considerable sway over various rules that may be adopted and how they are enforced. And that’s not to mention their sway in the informal role as the leader of the party against a president of an opposing party, in electioneering, campaigns, and fundraising. Who and what they elevate leaves a lot of leverage to smooth out the more hesitant members of the caucus. 

However, the margin McCarthy faces, his prior inability to make up the difference with a margin far greater, and a trickle of anti-McCarthy sentiment percolating through the caucus make this a merciless challenge. The only promising sign for McCarthy at the moment is that no prominent alternative has emerged. He may ultimately be the best and only choice, and perhaps that means he can wear down the naysayers on multiple ballots or over multiple days of a House sitting without a speaker. But, if he can’t stop the public bleeding of support (or open antipathy towards him), not to mention make up enough of the difference with the 30-or-so members who didn’t support him initially, his drape-measuring will be for nothing. Even if he can pull off a narrow win, he may be one pissed-off member away from a leadership challenge he can’t survive.

In the very real chance that McCarthy goes down, you’ll be hearing a lot more about Steve Scalise, the current Republican whip from Louisiana. In a stark contrast from McCarthy’s three-dozen defections in the conference vote, Scalise was elected unopposed to serve as majority leader in the next Congress. An astute micromanager who is finely tuned to the entire Republican caucus, Scalise has embraced a Pelosi-like approach to his caucus. Given McCarthy’s historical inability to do the same and the parallel to Democrats’ slim majority over the last two years, that’s not something to underestimate.