We’ve been waiting months for this week’s primaries in Nevada because we feel, and have been stressing for a while now, that Nevada is likely the most important state in the 2022 midterms. With the June 14 primaries now settled in the Silver State, we’re bringing you a series of to-the-point, insightful, expansive, and connected pieces on what you should know about the Nevada elections and why they matter so much this cycle.

Nevada Senate Race | Nevada Congressional Races | Nevada Governor’s Race | Nevada’s Executive Branch | The Nevada Republican Party | Nevada and the 21st Century Democratic Party

There are four congressional districts in Nevada, and all four incumbents are running again in the redrawn districts this cycle. The Democrats control both Nevada’s state legislature and the governor’s mansion, which gave them control over redrawing the districts and they chose to create an electorally efficient map with slightly Democratic-leaning but nonetheless competitive districts in the Las Vegas area. The idea here is to stack as many Republicans in the upstate district (NV-2) as possible and rely on incumbency advantage in the three Las Vegas-area seats to guarantee an easy pickup/retention of three House seats for the party in a neutral or Democratic-leaning year.

The gamble (because what would Nevada be without gambling) is that in a Republican-leaning year (like 2022), Democrats face the prospect of a wipeout in every single district, leaving them with no representatives in the House. Democrats are hoping that the incumbency advantage and the urban-suburban milieu of the Las Vegas area will help prop them up in the long run, but 2022 will be a big test of if that can hold, with varying levels of risk given each race:

1. NV-1: Nevada’s First Congressional District is home to their most famous member of the House of Representatives, Democrat Dina Titus. Titus easily survived what many outside of Las Vegas assumed would be a tighter primary challenge from Bernie Sanders-endorsed Amy Vilela. But locals knew all too well that Titus would soar to victory as she’s a big name in the state. Formerly a longtime professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas (UNLV); a member of the State Senate for 20 years; and gubernatorial nominee for Democrats in 2006, Titus was first elected to Congress in 2008. This cycle she will go up against Republican retired Army Colonel Mark Robertson, who has also served as an assistant professor and adjunct faculty at UNLV.
   
   This is a district that is 4% more Democratic than the nation overall, and Titus has strong name recognition and support in the area. Robertson seems to be running as more of a 2010-era Tea Party congressional term limits and school choice candidate than as a wackjob election denier and China baiter, which may help him in this moderate district – but we’d surmise that this is a race more likely to go Titus’ way than not.
   
   
2. NV-2: This is the only uncompetitive federal election in the state this cycle. Incumbent Republican Mark Amodei fought back a primary challenge from perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian (yes, there is a relation to Jerry, but he is bringing great shame to the Tarkanian name) and will triumph over the Democratic nominee, educator Elizabeth Krause.
   
   
3. NV-3: We covered the Third District’s Republican primary a couple times this cycle, notably focusing on the prospects of fringe Republican candidate Noah Malgeri, who received endorsements from some other fringe right-wing figures like Roger Stone. We even interviewed Malgeri as part of our coverage of the Republican primary to take on Democratic incumbent Susie Lee to get a read on the rampant mistruths and increasingly extremist rhetoric spouted by his campaign, then uncovered a misreported contribution by Colorado’s mysterious GOP megadonor Tatnall Hillman that appears to have been made to Malgeri. But on primary night, Malgeri received a crushing fourth place finish and less than 10% of the vote, with the consensus Republican establishment pick, April Becker, cruising to a 65% victory.
   
   Becker will face Lee in November in Nevada’s most competitive district. which leans Democratic by only two points. Lee has only been in office since 2019, and while she has a strong network in the Vegas Valley, she also has some baggage surrounding a specific Paycheck Protection Program item for casinos that she lobbied for that seemed to benefit her family. GOP nominee Becker on the other hand is a prominent lawyer in Vegas, a former State Senate nominee, and also well established in the Valley. This race leans in Becker’s favor.
   
   
4. NV-4: Despite the competitive races in NV-1 and NV-3, Democratic incumbent Stephen Horsford is probably the most vulnerable Congressman in the state, even though he has the most Democratic-leaning of the four districts (D+5, five percent more Democratic than the nation at large). Horsford was the majority leader in the State Senate before being elected to Congress, then lost reelection, then won back the seat in 2018. In 2020, Horsford admitted to having an extramarital affair with a former intern of Harry Reid (she was 21, he was majority leader of the state senate at the time and 15 years her senior); he also acknowledged that he spent his company’s money on gifts for her. This isn’t great, but this was also two years ago – and Horsford won reelection in 2020 despite it. This may because in 2020 Horsford was able to tout a big endorsement from one Barack Obama; but also because Horsford was up against Republican Jim Marchant, an avowed election conspiracist who is now the GOP nominee for Secretary of State.
   
   In 2022, however, Horsford will face Sam Peters, a retired Air Force Major and pro-law enforcement candidate and business owner. Peters fought a tough primary against state Assemblywoman Annie Black, who was preferred by Democrats because she would’ve been a weaker opponent for Horsford (Black is another avowed election conspiracist who attended the January 6 riot). Peters isn’t exactly a centrist though – he is skeptical Biden won Nevada and has said he wouldn’t have voted to certify the 2020 election either. This will be a brutal slog to the finish line in this North Vegas and mid-Nevada district, but Horsford is probably the underdog.
   
   

Despite the setbacks this cycle, the Nevada Democrats’ gamble is nevertheless clever and – if you want to be honest – pro-democratic (with a little “d”). It creates truly competitive districts. And since Republicans will likely take control of the White House at some point in the next ten years, it’s also an efficient and effective way to swing three House seats towards Democrats when they really need to. But, that said, you can’t blame Dina Titus for being really, really upset about it this cycle and complaining that she “totally got fucked by the legislature on my district.”

If you were to guess the final breakdown of Nevada’s House delegation after this election, you may surmise that Democrats will be hard pressed to hold more than Titus’ seat. That’s probably an apt conclusion, and a degradation from our assessment just last month when we forecast (in collaboration with Wild & Free: A Battle Born Podcast) a 2-2 delegation split, erring in Horsford’s favor. Now that Horsford has drawn the stronger of his two most likely Republican challengers, Republicans will likely hold three of the four seats in Nevada’s delegation to the 118th Congress.