Tag: ratings

After many months of twists and turns, we’re almost at the end of the line – the generic ballot is back to about a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control ...

The presidential and Senate races are coming down to the wire – the generic ballot is below a one point lead for Democrats, giving Republicans a clear upper hand in the race for control of both the White House and ...

With a little under three weeks to Election Day, we have some factor updates and adjustments to add to our comprehensive election model.

Now that all of the states are live and the generic ballot has tightened, let's talk about what our model says about the election.

In 2019, I wrote a piece about Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown’s decision to not seek the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. In the piece, I argue that Brown was uniquely well-suited to run the kind of campaign Democrats would have to ...

There was a time when it seemed like the Montana Senate race could have been the undercard in control for the Senate. Before West Virginia’s Democratic (now independent) Senator Joe Manchin announced he would not run for reelection this year, ...

Democrat Jacky Rosen has an almost unbelievable lead in polls, why?

Nevada no longer clearly favors Democrats at the presidential level, but it is a shining example of how effort, issues, and relationships still matter.

The Garden State could use some more polling!

We've incorporated probability and odds of winning on our models.

We’ve put a lot of thought into Arizona and landed with this: any tiny shift could change the outcome.

The three most common words you read and hear between now and Election Day will be “Pennsylvania,” “Pennsylvania,” and “Pennsylvania.”

In 2022, one of the reasons why the Republicans struggled in so many competitive Senate races is that they simply did not run good candidates. Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania, Blake Masters of Arizona, and Herschel Walker of Georgia all had ...

If our headline caught you off guard, then strap in. We’ve got a lot to catch you up on! At the time we’re putting this out, the race for control of the Senate clearly favors Republicans. Working with 49 seats ...

The prelude to the New Jersey race was dramatic, but the state hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972. Does the GOP have an opening?

Arizona Republicans keep running bad candidates in otherwise winnable races, 2024 is no exception.

Could one electoral vote really be that important?

For one, Rick Scott's last narrow margin was in a cycle that clearly favored Democrats. 2024 ain't that.

The Tar Heel State has been something of a white whale for national Democrats this century. It's still Harris' lowest hanging fruit if she wants to expand the 2020 map.

Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980. Could 2024 change that?

Republicans seem to do better in Wisconsin when turnout increases, this creates risk for Tammy Baldwin

It’s not very often that you get a do-over in electoral politics, but Republicans will be getting something close to that in Pennsylvania in 2024. In the state’s last Senate election, in 2022, the party went through an ugly primary ...