Tag: Trump
The Smallest Swing State is Also the Most Complicated
Nevada no longer clearly favors Democrats at the presidential level, but it is a shining example of how effort, issues, and relationships still matter.
New Jersey Isn’t a Swing State, But It Could Shift Toward Trump in 2024
The Garden State could use some more polling!
No Swing State Has Rebuked the GOP as Clearly as Arizona in the Trump Era. Will This Hold?
We’ve put a lot of thought into Arizona and landed with this: any tiny shift could change the outcome.
The Keystone State is Key to 2024
The three most common words you read and hear between now and Election Day will be “Pennsylvania,” “Pennsylvania,” and “Pennsylvania.”
One Electoral Vote in Nebraska Could Make or Break a Harris Victory
Could one electoral vote really be that important?
North Carolina Offers Harris Her Best Opportunity to Expand the Map
The Tar Heel State has been something of a white whale for national Democrats this century. It's still Harris' lowest hanging fruit if she wants to expand the 2020 map.
Republican Feuds, a Criminal Trial, and Shifting Demographics Keep Georgia in Play for Harris
Georgia epitomises how Democrats have expanded the map in the Trump era. That doesn't mean it's easy to win.
Wisconsin’s Lost Some Electoral Relevance, but It’s Still a Bellwether
In a high turnout presidential election, expect Wisconsin to be close
Texas is Unlikely to Go to Harris—It’s Still Worth Keeping an Eye On
The trend towards Democrats in the Lone Star state is undeniable, but it still favors Republicans
Michigan Presents Both Harris and Trump with Unique Risks and Opportunities
Demographic trends and a fraying coalition pose risks for Harris in Michigan, though Republican missteps provide an opening
Maine’s Second Congressional District is a Ruby Red Drop in a Sea of New England Blue
Trump will triumph in this rebellious district, but an underperformance could make for an interesting race for second place.
Minnesota Democrats Are Working with a High Floor. Will It Hold Up in 2024?
Harris has the advantage in Minnesota so long as she can stay above water nationally. In a cycle like this, that’s not a sure thing.
The Path to Putting Utah in Play is Palpable, but Unlikely
Exciting things are afoot in the Beehive State.
New Hampshire is New England’s Most Purple State, but It Seems to Be Getting Bluer
New Hampshire almost went for Trump in 2016, it swung decisively away from him four years later, where will it fall in 2024?
Ohio is the Face of Democrats’ White Working Class Voter Problems
So much for “as goes Ohio, so goes the nation.”
Maine is Old, White, and Rural, but Ranked-Choice Voting Makes it Harris’ to Lose
Republican gains have been offset by an electoral system that favors moderates.
Suburbanites and Govvies Give Democrats an Advantage in Virginia
It's hard to imagine a world where Trump wins the Old Dominion unless he manifests a clear popular vote victory.
Was This—Somehow—the Best Play?
Did Democrats somehow stumble into an enviable position in the 2024 election?
When Will the Rust Belt’s Electoral Supremacy End?
Recently, we dove into something of a political obsession of ours: the “crossover” between the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt – and tried to figure out at what point Democrats would have an easier time winning the Sun Belt ...
Is the Rust Belt Still the Lowest Hanging Fruit for Biden?
“The Rust Belt or bust” is the mantra of conventional political wisdom that just will not die out... does it still hold water?
When Trump Might Name His Running Mate, and Why He Should Wait
Trump would be wise to wait until the week before the convention, just like most campaigns do.
Politics Express: Our 2024 Presidential Election Model
Our 2024 Presidential Election Model is live! The Postrider‘s Politics Editor and Editor-in-Chief unpack the basics, talk about their philosophy, why they’ve beaten the heavy-hitting models the last three cycles, and have some fun explaining how you can use the map too. ...