They haven’t aired yet, but the 91st Academy Awards are already a huge mess. Last year’s ceremony pulled the smallest audience ever, prompting ABC to press the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences to make changes to the broadcast in order to attract more viewers, which, in turn, precipitated some of the worst ideas in the organization’s history. It all started with the Achievement in Popular Film award, which followed the logic that people would tune in if they knew a movie like Black Panther or Mission Impossible: Fallout was guaranteed a nomination for something. That proposal was skimpy on the details and, more importantly, hated by everyone from audience members to Academy voters, forcing AMPAS to “postpone” establishing the category until a later date. Then came the search for a host for the show, which started out bad enough when it became clear that nobody wanted the gig, and somehow got even worse when Kevin Hart, the man hired for the job, decided to step down from his duties rather than refuse to apologize for a string of homophobic tweets he wrote almost a decade ago. The tradition of having last year’s acting winners give out this years acting awards was eschewed to get bigger names on the stage, until it wasn’t. The plan to shorten the ceremony by adding a hard three hour time limit and relegate the presentation of the Cinematography, Editing, Hair and Makeup, and Live Action Short Awards to occur during commercial breaks was met with open revolt from the Academy ranks, and ultimately went the way of all of the other plans.

In other words, almost every change the Academy made was reversed before it could even be put into effect, and it was all their own doing. The proposed changes reeked of panic and, in some cases, contradicted the very spirit of the Oscars themselves. The beauty of the Academy Awards is that it doesn’t segregate its nominees by genre: it treats all films as the continuation of one proud tradition and canon, and, while the results may not always be satisfactory, this universalist approach engenders more lively and interesting conversations than the balkanized Golden Globes or Critics’ Choice Awards. In a similar vein, the Oscars aren’t meant to celebrate stardom, but the craft of film itself. The average moviegoer doesn’t think much about the cinematographers, editors, and costume designers of the world, but, for one night every year, they’re put on the same stage as Hollywood’s biggest names. Sure, their speeches may be shorter and happen earlier in the night, but it doesn’t matter: all are Oscars gold. Insisting that these hardworking artists give up some of their well-deserved spotlight to appease advertisers and network executives isn’t just misguided, it’s shameful.

So, will all of the panic and indecisiveness surrounding this year’s Awards take a toll on viewership, or will people gather ‘round the set to watch what could be a mess of truly epic proportions? Only time will tell, but one thing’s for certain: the controversy surrounding the show has eclipsed what’s been a confounding, frustrating, but ultimately interesting Best Picture race.

I’ve been trying to figure out what “kind” of year it is for the Best Picture race. It definitely isn’t one of those years where the award is a forgone conclusion. To be honest, the last winner that felt like that was The Artist, whose nostalgia-heavy premise and style seemed to check all of the boxes for what the Academy tends to think is a Best Picture film. And it’s also not like 2016, when La La Land and Moonlight were duking it out in a kind of proxy culture war. It could have had the makings of an Argo year, where a well respected, presumed contender (in this year’s case, A Star Is Born) has to deal with some early loses and a lack of a Best Director nomination, but ultimately pulls through at the end. But, even then, most people were sure Ben Affleck was going to end up on stage by the end of the night. No, it definitely feels like we’re in the middle of either a Spotlight or a Shape of Water year.

What do I mean by that? Well, in 2015, it didn’t really seem like anybody knew what was going on in the Best Picture race. Alejandroa G. Inarritu, who won Best Director in 2014 for Birdman, was back on the trail to stump for his latest film, The Revenant. A repeat director win and an acting statuette for the long suffering Leonardo DiCaprio seemed inevitable, as did an Inarritu film winning consecutive Best Picture trophies. But no one really seemed that confident in what film would take home the honor. Everything from Adam McKay’s zippy financial crisis docu-drama The Big Short to George Miller’s action masterpiece Mad Max: Fury Road seemed to be in play, but it was Tom McCarthy’s tense, dogged Spotlight, a drama about the team of reporters who first exposed the sexual abuse cover ups ravaging the Catholic Church, that ended up winning. It would’ve felt like an upset if there were any favorites in the first place, but, since no one had a read for the race, we all kind of shrugged and accepted it.

Just last year, a very different race played out: It became clear early on that Guillermo del Toro was going to win his long-awaited directing Oscar for his Cold War fairytale The Shape of Water, a film that quickly emerged as a favorite of the technical guilds. Such broad industry suggested that it should also have been the presumptive Best Picture favorite, but the popular appeal of Jordan Peele’s race relations horror film Get Out and the controversial success of Martin McDonagh’s flawed Southern Gothic Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had some prognosticators relitigating the La La Land/Moonlight dichotomy, a fire that was only stoked by the latter’s triumph at the Golden Globes and BAFTAs. Still, as the race crystalized and The Shape of Water became a clearer and clearer favorite, columnists tried their damndest make Get Out seem like a real threat to win while preparing themselves for the online reckoning that would ensue if the award went to Three Billboards. Instead, when Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway opened up the ballot and made extra sure that they were reading the correct winner, Shape of Water won the day.

So are there any easy parallels to draw between this year’s race and the two I rehashed above? Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody have emerged as the problematic equivalents to Three Billboards, and a win for either would seem to indicate that the Academy has not developed as progressively as Moonlight’s win in 2016 made it seem. But there isn’t a clear woke foil for either film that can act in the Get Out role. Maybe Black Panther, but that film’s status as a cog in one of the most ruthless franchise machines in Hollywood doesn’t give it the same insurgent energy as Peele’s daring and independent vision. And even then, Roma, which would take The Shape of Water’s place, doesn’t figure to be as competitive in the craft categories as last year’s champion, which could mean we are, in fact, dealing with more of a Spotlight scenario. If that’s the case, what’s this year’s Spotlight? BlacKkKlansman is an “issue” movie like McCarthy’s, but is it too explicitly political to win over a wide swath of the electorate? The Favourite is universally praised, but is it too irreverent? And has A Star Is Born, which seemed like a shoe in for all of the awards when it hit theaters in October, been able to recover from a messy campaign? Do people actually like Vice, or do they just like Christian Bale and Adam McKay? The point is, we’ve found ourselves asking a lot more questions — about the show, the host, and who will actually win the awards — closer to the ceremony than we usually do. While that’s lead to a fair deal of hand-wringing and heartburn for those of us who care about the Oscars and have watched it flail about as of late, if it adds a few moments of electric tension in the seconds between the moment where the last envelope is opened and the last name is read, all may not be lost after all.

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Best Picture

Black Panther

BlacKkKlansman

Bohemian Rhapsody

The Favourite

Green Book

Roma

A Star Is Born

Vice

What Will Win: I’m leaning into the idea that this is a Shape of Water year and not a Spotlight year. Roma’s been the favorite since almost day one, and, even though the Netflix film stumbled out of the gate against some surprising competition (read: Green Book and Bohemian Rhapsody), its craftsmanlike approach and moving, if not minimal, story will strike a chord with both the technical folks and the writers, directors, and actors. Even though it’s faced some stiff competition this season, it still took the top prize at the BAFTAs, DGAs, and Critics’ Choice Awards.

What Should Win: I wouldn’t describe the field this year as “underwhelming,” per se, but there isn’t one movie that I strongly feel should win. Roma is probably the best movie nominated, but A Star Is Born managed to pull off big, populist Hollywood melodrama, and while that may make it feel a little rickety and manipulative at times, it breaks my heart to think that it’ll probably only win one award this Sunday. My head votes for Roma, my heart for A Star Is Born.

Upset Special: So here’s the thing: I think Green Book, which racked up some surprising wins early on this awards season, is the second most likely film to win. But given its past success, I’ll throw in an extra prediction for the sake of drama: if this does end up being a Spotlight year, then I think your winner could be BlacKkKlansman. It touches on contemporary political issues and was directed by a guy who was ignored by the Academy for far too long. It’s a combination “important” movie and make up award, and the most appealing choice for voters looking to make a statement.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron – Roma

Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite

Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman

Adam McKay – Vice

Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War

Who Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron. This has become something of a “best stage manager” award in recent years and Cuaron had to coordinate a large cast to create realistic social situations shot in long takes with child actors. His work is the most visible, and, even if Roma doesn’t take home Best Picture, his very touching, beautifully rendered story about a maid in 1970s Mexico City will likely net him his second Oscar.

Who Should Win: Cuaron. It boggles the mind to consider the kind of meticulous detail this guy put into every scene of Roma.

Upset Special: Spike Lee. It’s his first nomination for directing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Academy decided to compensate for years of negligence by giving him his first win, as well.

Best Actor

Christian Bale – Vice

Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born

Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen – Green Book

Who Will Win: Rami Malek. Bohemian Rhapsody’s unlikely emergence as an awards darling has brought new scrutiny to the sexual assault allegations directed towards director Bryan Singer, which has muddied up its Best Picture campaign and raised a whole series of questions about what the cast and crew knew about Singer and when. Malek has emerged from the controversy relatively unscathed, though, and even the film’s harshest critics have hailed his evocation of the late Freddie Mercury.

Who Should Win: Never mind that, unlike Bradley Cooper, Malek doesn’t sing his own songs, play guitar, and strain his voice to be an octave lower than it is in real life. Nevvveerrr mind.

Upset Special: Christian Bale, who chillingly transformed into Dick Cheney for Vice and won in the comedy category at the Golden Globes and a host of other ceremonies (because, you see,  nothing’s funnier than playing a sociopath with the blood of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis on his hands).

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio – Roma

Glenn Close – The Wife

Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born

Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Who Will Win: The script for this race got flip-turned-upside down when Glenn Close beat Lady Gaga in what figured to be a lock for her at the Golden Globes, and it’s been all Close ever since. She’ll likely win again on Sunday, continuing the proud tradition of veteran actresses winning for movies no one seems to care about or even like that much. But she’s never won before, so good for her, I guess.

Who Should Win: I mean it’s gotta be Lady Gaga! Not only did she sing, but she gave a perfectly stripped down, naturalistic performance in what was only her first feature length role. A star is born, indeed.

Upset Special: Olivia Colman, who took Best Actress at the BAFTAs. While a British person winning one of those awards should usually be taken with a grain of salt, she’s been cleaning up in comedy categories and has been breathing down Close’s neck all season. The Favourite is tied for most nominations this year, and I think this race is closer than most people think. Even though I’m pulling for Gaga, I’d love to see Colman top her delightfully loopy Golden Globes speech.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Green Book

Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman

Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born

Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Rockwell – Vice

Who Will Win: This is another race that saw a serious sea change after the Globes when Ali won over Grant. He’s kept true to his winning ways ever since, and I think his status as a past winner could put him over the top in a crowded field, much like it did for Christoph Waltz in 2012.

Who Should Win: Richard E. Grant, who brought a simultaneous sense of whimsy and sadness to his role as hustling junkie Jack Hock in Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Upset Special: Certainly Grant. It may be anecdotal, but he was getting a lot of support from the four anonymous Oscar voters interviewed by the L.A. Times. But if you’re looking for a less obvious pick, I’d go with Driver. A big night for BlacKkKlansman could mean a big night for him, too.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – Vice

Marina de Tavira – Roma

Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk

Emma Stone – The Favourite

Rachel Weisz – The Favourite

Who Will Win: Even though If Beale Street Could Talk was shut out of the Best Picture and Best Director races, Regina King has won most of the major awards leading up to the Oscars, and I don’t see any reason why we’ll get a different result Sunday night.

Who Should Win: Jane Hu eloquently laid out a case for Emma Stone winning the award, and I tend to agree with her. Stone has made a career out of playing the endearing everywoman, but in The Favourite, she’s anything but. She’s manipulative and conniving and pretendsto be empathetic and caring, which requires her to grapple with a necessarily layered performance. Brilliant stuff.

Upset Special: Rachel Weisz, a past winner who recently snagged a BAFTA for her role as the cold and pragmatic Sarah Churchill. She’s a perfect foil to Stone’s hopeful-yet-devious social climber, and an imposing presence whether she’s wielding a pen or a pistol.

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite – Written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

First Reformed – Written by Paul Schrader

Green Book – Written by Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, and Peter Farrelly

Roma – Written by Alfonso Cuaron

Vice – Written by Adam McKay

What Will Win: I expect the voters to eat up the cutting, nasty script for The Favourite, which elevated the film from being just another period piece to something funnier, weirder, and more unforgiving.

What Should Win: The Favourite, whose irreverent take on the costume drama could do to the genre what the Revisionist Western did to, uh, the Western.

Upset Special: Green Book won the screenplay award at the Golden Globes. Expect the social media knives to (not unjustly) come out if that happens, as co-writer Nick Vallelonga has been accused by Don Shirley’s family of misrepresenting the relationship between Vallelonga’s father and the pianist, and been taken to task for his pro-Trump tweets. I suspect the controversy will scare away most voters but, then again, we’re just two years removed from Casey Affleck accepting a Best Actor statuette in the midst of a highly publicized sexual assault lawsuit, so who knows.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Screenplay Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, based on the short stories “The All Gold Canyon” by Jack London, “The Gal Who Got Rattled” by Stewart Edward White, and short stories by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

BlacKkKlansman – Screenplay by Charlie Watchel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee, based on the memoir Black Klansman by Ron Stallworth

Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, based on the memoir of the same name by Lee Israel

If Beale Street Could Talk – Screenplay by Barry Jenkins, based on the novel of the same name by James Baldwin

A Star Is Born – Screenplay by Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters, based on the 1954 screenplay of the same name by Moss Hart and the 1976 screenplay of the same name by Joan Didion, John Gregory Dunne, and Frank Pierson; based on a story by Robert Carson and William A. Wellman

What Will Win: My God, some of these nominations are like little Russian nesting dolls of adaptations. Anyway, voters will likely use this award to give Spike Lee the Oscar that’s long eluded him during the course of his 40 year career.

What Should Win: I haven’t seen BlacKkKlansman or If Beale Street Could Talk yet (yes, yes, I know that sounds about white), so I can’t comment on what everyone tells me are great screenplays. But what I can say is that Can You Ever Forgive Me? is a film that lives and dies with the chemistry of its two main characters. While that necessitates strong lead performances (both Melissa McCarthy and Richard E. Grant were rightfully nominated), it helps when the actors both have funny and devastating things to say, too.

Upset Special: Given the film’s pedigree (Barry Jenkins won this award alongside Tarell Alvin McCraney in 2016 for Moonlight) and the nods it’s received elsewhere on the awards circuit, it’s pretty shocking that If Beale Street Could Talk didn’t get a Best Picture or Best Director nomination. Voters could beat their breast, declare mea culpa, and try to make amends by giving Jenkins the win here.

Best Animated Feature Film

Incredibles 2

Isle of Dogs

Mirai

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

What Will Win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, a film that’s been so tirelessly fawned over that it now ranks as the 6th best reviewed movie of all-time on Letterboxd.

What Should Win: I liked Incredibles 2, but I am very glad that Into the Spider-Verse — a unique vision with an original animation style that serves as the best examination of what it means to be a particular superhero, possibly ever — has been wiping the floor with Disney/Pixar’s fun but ultimately unnecessary sequel. Spider-Verse is my favorite movie of the year and completely deserving of what can sometimes feel like an almost outrageous amount of praise.

Upset Special: Incredibles 2, because you never know when Pixar is gonna Pixar.

Best Foreign Language Film

Capernaum (Lebanon)

Cold War (Poland)

Never Look Away (Germany)

Roma (Mexico)

Shoplifters (Japan)

What Will Win: Well, if Roma is the only one of these movies nominated for Best Picture, then I guess it follows that the Academy would also think it’s the best of these nominees…

What Should Win:…and if I think Roma should win Best Picture, then I guess my hands are kind of tied here as well…

Upset Special:…except they might not be! For all of the signals being sent about Roma having a big night, it’s worth noting that Cold War has snagged two additional nominations of its own, including a highly coveted Best Director nod for Pawel Pawlikowski. The Academy clearly likes this film, and it’s not inconceivable that they’ll try to have their cake and eat it too by giving it the foreign language award while also giving Roma Best Picture. That would require a truly bizarre form of consensus on the part of the Academy and directly violate the transitive property, but Il Postino managed to be nominated for Best Picture without being nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, so these things have rarely if ever been scientific.

Best Documentary – Feature

Free Solo

Hale County This Morning, This Evening

Minding the Gap

Of Fathers and Sons

RBG

What Will Win: My gut says Free Solo, a film that celebrates human achievement while questioning the sanity of those who chase it through some awe inspiring and absolutely terrifying footage.

What Should Win: I haven’t seen any of these, but Minding the Gap has been getting a lot of praise and sounds the most intriguing to me.

Upset Special: RBG, a win that I suspect would be less about the merits of the film itself than it would be voters’ adulation of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and desire to make a political statement. And, to be clear, that’s a dig at the Hollywood slacktivism, not what I’ve be told is a perfectly compelling documentary.

Best Documentary – Short Subject

Black Sheep

End Game

Lifeboat

A Night at the Garden

Period. End of Sentence.

What Will Win: Just a heads up: With the exception of Bao, I haven’t seen any of the shorts in any of the categories, so I know even less of what I’m talking about in this next three sections. Most handicappers seem to be going with Black Sheep, which tells a truly strange story about an English teenager of Nigerian descent who, due to a lack of better options, befriended a group of racists and even joined in on their race-based assaults. Talk about stranger than fiction.

What Should Win: Black Sheep, if only because its original conceit sounds like it could hook and disturb even the most casual film fan.

Upset Special: Period. End of Sentence. About a group of women trying to make sanitary pads and other feminine hygiene products more accessible in rural India, it seems like it might be the most politically persuasive of the bunch.

Best Live Action Short Film

Detainment

Fauve

Marguerite

Mother

Skin

What Will Win: Apparently children in peril has been the theme of this year’s live action short field, which hasn’t rubbed everybody the right way. As such, I”ll predict Marguerite, allegedly the only film where a horrible thing doesn’t happen to a kid, to stand out from the pack and get the win.

What Should Win: Uh, Marguerite for originality?

Upset Special: Pshhhhhhhh, Detainment, I guess? It’s mired in controversy itself, so maybe that gives it a level of name recognition.

Best Animated Short Film

Animal Behavior

Bao

Late Afternoon

One Small Step

Weekends

What Will Win: Bao, because it ran before Incredibles 2 and is the one voters are most likely to have seen.

What Should Win: I’ve heard good things about Animal Behavior, but I liked Bao enough, even though I had questions about its chronology. How fast does it take dumplings that are really a stand-in for your adult son to grow up, anyway?

Upset Special: Animal Behavior, because who doesn’t love anthropomorphism?

Best Original Score

Black Panther – Ludwig Goransson

BlacKkKlansman – Terrence Blanchard

If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell

Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat

Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman

Who Will Win: Nicholas Britell. If Justin Hurwitz had been rightfully nominated for First Man’s score it’d set up a redux of the La La Land/Moonlight wars (Hurwitz won for the former, Britell was nominated for the latter), but I’m not so sure that the result would be any different. The Academy loves to balance the scales, and may be looking at this as a chance to ameliorate what some may have seen as a slight from two years ago.

Who Should Win: In a category so often dominated by the entrenched John Williamses and Hans Zimmers of the world, it’d be nice to see a young upstart like Britell, whose work is already becoming as ubiquitous as his predecessors, help usher in a new era.

Upset Special:  I suppose Ludwig Goransson, who’s coming in hot off of two high profile Grammy wins for “This Is America” and having a bit of a moment, but I don’t really have a feel for this category and I’m not sure how familiar most of the older voters are familiar with Childish Gambino, anyway.

Best Original Song

“All the Stars” from Black Panther – Music by Mark Spears, Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, and Anthony Tiffith; Lyrics by Kendrick Lamar Duckworth, Anthony Tiffith and Solana Rowe; Performed by Kendrick Lamar and SZA

“I’ll Fight” from RBG – Music and lyrics by Diane Warren; Performed by Jennifer Hudson

“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns; Music by Marc Shaiman; Lyrics by Marc Shaiman and Scott Witten; Performed by Emily Blunt

“Shallow” from A Star Is Born; Music and lyrics by Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, and Andrew Wyatt; Performed by Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper

“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs; Music and lyrics by David Rawlings and Gillian Welch; Performed by Willie Watson and Tim Blake Nelson

What Will Win: “Shallow,” which is, rather shockingly, probably the only award Bradley Cooper’s would be juggernaut will receive Sunday night.

What Should Win: I won’t argue that “Shallow” isn’t the best song nominated, but I’d love for Americana veteran Gillian Welch and the charming yet sorrowful “When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” to get some love as well.

Upset Special: “All the Stars” is probably the most popular and zeitgeisty song nominated, and given how bleak A Star Is Born’s campaign has been thus far, it wouldn’t shock me to see it fall in another stinging upset here.

Best Sound Editing

Black Panther – Benjamin A. Burtt and Steve Boeddeker

Bohemian Rhapsody – John Warhurst and Nina Hartstone

First Man – Ai-Ling Lee and Mildred Iatou Morgan

A Quiet Place – Ethan Van der Ryn and Erik Aadahl

Roma – Sergio Diaz and Skip Lievsay

What Will Win: Even though I hope it doesn’t have a big night, it feels weird that a movie like Bohemian Rhapsody, which was doing so well this awards season, would leave the Oscars with only one award. It’s clear that there’s genuine affection for what I’ve seen described as a truly mediocre, surface level biopic, but, hey, the Academy likes what the Academy likes. Considering that the sound team had to recreate the feeling of a live concert and lay Freddie Mercury’s voice over someone other than Freddie Mercury and make it look like that person was actually singing, I think they end up picking up both sound awards.

What Should Win: Alternatively, this could be a category where the Academy chooses to recognize an under-nominated film. The sound team on First Man captured the tense sensory experience of flying a tin can into space, and should be rewarded for that work.

Upset Special: First Man. In a few years, we’ll look back at this ceremony and wonder how the heck both that and If Beale Street Could Talk weren’t nominated for Best Picture.

Best Sound Mixing

Black Panther – Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor, and Peter J. Devlin

Bohemian Rhapsody – Paul Massey, Tim Cavagin, and John Casali

First Man – Jon Taylor, Frank A. Montano, Ai-Ling Lee, and Mary H. Ellis

Roma – Skip Lievsay, Craig Henighan, and Jose Antonio Garcia

A Star Is Born – Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic, Jason Ruder, and Steve A. Morrow

What Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody, for the reasons listed above

What Should Win: First Man, for the reasons listed above

Upset Special: First Man, for the other reasons listed above. That was easy!

Best Production Design

Black Panther – Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Jay Hart

The Favourite – Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton

First Man – Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas

Mary Poppins Returns – Production Design: John Myhre; Set Decoration: Gordon Sim

Roma – Production Design: Eugenio Caballero; Set Decoration: Barbara Enriqeuz

What Will Win: This is an interesting showdown: do voters go with The Favourite, the kind of detail oriented costume drama that tends to win these awards, or Black Panther, which transported viewers to the most talked about fictional locale since Pandora? My guess is that most voters (especially the older ones) without experience in production design will look at Wakanda and wonder to themselves which parts are CGI and which parts are a physical set and give the award to the decidedly concrete work in The Favourite, which not only brought to life the gauche splendor of the English court, but also emphasized the grimy, filthy realities of everyday life in the 18th century as well.

What Should Win: I’ll also go with The Favourite. You can practically feel the cold stone, the fine fabrics, the squishy mud, taste the gourmet desserts, and smell the pig shit.

Upset Special: Black Panther. The appeal of Wakanda as a place one could visit was at least as much of a draw as Michael B. Jordan’s abs.

Best Cinematography

Cold War – Lukasz Zal

The Favourite – Robbie Ryan

Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel

Roma – Alfonso Cuaron

A Star Is Born – Matthew Libatique

What Will Win: I liked Roma for its characters and belief in human compassion and togetherness, but I don’t know that I’d like it as much as I did if it weren’t for its gorgeous black and white cinematography, which only heightened its sense of time and place. That the film’s director shot it all himself is likely to impress voters as well.

What Should Win: There’s a shot in Cold War where two characters are at a reception following a staging of this Polish folk music show they organized and they’re both very bored and are standing with their backs to the crowd, and you’re just kind of like “huh, that’s a weird way to stand, communist Europe sure was crazy” and then a guy comes to congratulate them on their success but you can’t tell if it’s the guy standing in front of them with his back towards the frame or the guy standing behind him, talking to the back of their heads until you realize that they were STANDING IN FRONT OF A MIRROR THE WHOLE TIME. Anyway, it was the only time this year that the pure composition of a shot left me shook, and I think Lukasz Zal deserves some recognition for that.

Upset Special: Cold War, because it also does the pretty black and white thing, and does really cool things with shadows and reflections as well. It’s also not inconceivable to me that some cinematographers would feel like Cuaron is trying to take some of their shine away by shooting his movie himself. I can just see Janusz Kaminski yelling “Stay in your lane, Alfonso!” when he first read about the Roma shoot in the trades.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Border – Goran Lundstrom and Pamela Goldammer

Mary Queen of Scots – Jenny Shircore, Marc Pilcher, and Jessica Brooks

Vice – Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe, and Patricia Dehaney

What Will Win: Vice, because I feel like everyone’s first reaction after watching that trailer was “wait a minute, that’s Christian Bale?”

What Should Win: Vice, because the first time I saw the trailer, I definitely said aloud (well, tweeted, which is the saying aloud of the Internet) “wait, wait, wait, wait, that’s Christian Bale?”

Upset Special: Border, because I heard it’s a good movie and fuck it, Suicide Squad won this two years ago

Best Costume Design

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres

Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter

The Favourite – Sandy Powell

Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell

Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne

What Will Win: A similar showdown to production design, I think this award will actually end up going to Black Panther. This award so often goes to period pieces, but I think it’ll be a welcome respite to see it go to someone who had to flex a little more creativity and come up with costumes that synthesized traditional African culture with high-tech futurism. It’s also the only nominee I know of where a part of a costume is used as a weapon.

What Should Win: Ruth E. Carter apparently designed 700 costumes for Black Panther so, uh, yeah, I think she deserves a little recognition.

Upset Special: The Favourite. They don’t call it a costume drama for nothing.

Best FIlm Editing

BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown

Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman

The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito

Vice – Hank Corwin

What Will Win: Hank Corwin’s flashy, music video-esque editing style in The Big Short helped reimagine what a movie based on a true story should look and feel like. I haven’t seen Vice, but from what I hear it’s used as a bit of crutch for what many people seem to think is a lesser film, but even if that is the case, Corwin should be rewarded for pulling more than his fair share of weight.

What Should Win: No cut made me jump more than the one in The Favourite where Emma Stone shoots a bird in one frame, and blood splatters across Rachel Weisz’s face in the next.

Upset Special: Despite being objectively poorly edited, Bohemian Rhapsody won the dramatic award at the American Cinema Editors Awards, which means it could pull away here. There’s an argument to be made that, with the production being so fraught and only so many takes of certain scenes existing, that John Ottman had to do a little more work than his fellow nominees to create a coherent film. I don’t know if that’s a proper excuse for choppy editing, but it seems to have persuaded his fellow editors, and may persuade an Academy that seems to like Bohemian Rhapsody, too.

Best Visual Effects

Avengers: Infinity War – Dan DeLeeuw, Kelly Port, Russell Earl, and Dan Sudick

Christopher Robin – Christopher Lawrence, Michael Eames, Theo Jones, and Chris Corbould

First Man – Paul Lambert, Ian Hunter, Tristan Myles, and J.D. Schwaim

Ready Player One – Roger Guyett, Grady Cofer, Matthew E. Butler, and David Shirk

Solo: A Star Wars Story – Rob Bredow, Patrick Tubach, Neal Scanlan, and Dominic Tuohy

What Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War, which not only brought to life all kinds of intergalactic beings, superhumans, and Norse gods, but also provided us with the now iconic Snappening, perhaps the most harrowing visual effect of the year.

What Should Win: I have no qualms with Infinity War winning here, but I’ll shout out First Man for its not as flashy but no less impressive effects. Barring a steep drop in the cost of interplanetary tourism, the climactic scenes of this film are likely the closest I will get to ever walking on the Moon, and it felt big, scary, and beautiful, just as I imagine it would in real life.

Upset Special: Eh, let’s go with Ready Player One. Spielberg + 80s nostalgia = potential Oscar gold.