The 74th Annual Primetime Emmys will take place on Monday, September 12th. This year, rather than assault you with one giant article of predictions, we’re breaking down our analysis into three digestible chunks. Wanna win an office pool for a show no one cares about? Then watch this space over the next three days as we walk you through every obscure acting nominee and comedy special nominated this year as only we can.

Television is the medium of the 21st century. After seeing innovation in terms of both “prestige” style stories and trashy reality TV in the early 2000s, television has grown from a passive way to sell advertising into a highly respected and much discussed storytelling medium, eclipsing film as the dominant form of entertainment, seemingly for good. 

And yet, the Emmys always feel like a bit of a joke. Part of that may be because, in the past, TV was a thing actors did when they were either just starting out or their career was on the downswing (that’s changed quickly, of course), part of it may be its odd timing (a Monday in September?), but I’m willing to bet a part of it is its scope. Despite ABC’s belief to the contrary, the Oscars is a relatively sleek awards show – comedies compete against dramas, and only films that have gotten a proper theatrical release are allowed to compete. The Emmys, on the other hand, are drowning in categories, partly because they divide by genre (which is more necessary when it comes to TV) and partly because they try to cater to every TV fan. Is there much overlap between the people who watch Severance, The Amazing Race, and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert? I don’t know, and the Academy of Television Arts of Sciences doesn’t care. They’re gonna get everyone their awards, even if it takes them five hours of awful comedy bits to do so.

In celebration of that smorgasbord approach to awards, we’re kicking off our 2022 Emmys preview with a look at the “everything else” awards – in other words, the shows and specials that don’t fit into the neat little comedy or drama categories. Limited series have only become a larger part of our TV viewing culture ever since the streaming boom, and the deep field for this year’s Emmys reflects that. Meanwhile, the variety and sketch series trot out the same old formulas to diminishing returns. Sound like any awards shows you know?

I’ve got two more of these to write, so enough preamble. Here are our predictions for every award not being given out in the comedy or drama categories:

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series

Dopesick

The Dropout

Inventing Anna

Pam & Tommy

The White Lotus

What Will Win: The Dropout

What Should Win: The Dropout

Upset Special: Dopesick

Were this ceremony taking place a few months earlier, Dopesick may have been able to coast off of Michael Keaton’s many accolades for his performance as Dr. Samuel Finnix for a win, and the polarizing White Lotus might be able to coast off of its summertime buzz. But The Dropout is the most recent of these series to be released, and, as I’ve written about at length, certainly the most deserving. It’s one of the best works of art about the millennial experience, and should be rewarded as such.

Outstanding Competition Program

The Amazing Race

Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls

Nailed It!

RuPaul’s Drag Race

Top Chef

The Voice

What Will Win: RuPaul’s Drag Race

What Should Win: At the risk of sounding very pretentious, I do not watch reality TV.

Upset Special: The Amazing Race

The Amazing Race holds the record for most wins in this category, taking home this relatively new award 10 times in the last 18 years. But the last four years it’s been won by RuPaul’s Drag Race, and for reasons both artistic and political, there’s little reason to believe that voters won’t choose to extend its streak to five in a row.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah

Jimmy Kimmel Live! 

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver 

Late Night with Seth Meyers

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

What Will Win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver 

What Should Win: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Upset Special: The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

This is another category prone to streaks, and given its reputation as the “high brow” late night show, it’s hard to make the argument that anything but Last Week Tonight with John Oliver will take home the win. That said, Stephen Colbert’s election night special (I’m not typing up that whole title) won the Best Variety Special (Live) last year, so the voters clearly like him, and may feel compelled to reward him again this year as well.

Outstanding Variety Sketch Series

A Black Lady Sketch Show

Saturday Night Live

What Will Win: Saturday Night Live

What Should Win: Well, I know for sure that Saturday Night Live shouldn’t win, but I’ve also never seen an episode of A Black Lady Sketch Show, so I’ll leave this one up to you.

Upset Special: By default, A Black Lady Sketch Show

Despite not being very good anymore, Saturday Night Live has won every award in this category since 2017, and Emmy voters’ seeming disinterest in nominating more than two shows for this award seems to indicate that it’ll win again this year. The lack of imagination in the nominations is truly bewildering, especially considering that I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson, arguably the best sketch series of the past three years, is right there and presumably eligible. 

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Colin Firth – The Staircase

Andrew Garfield – Under the Banner of Heaven

Oscar Isaac – Scenes from a Marriage

Michael Keaton – Dopesick

Himesh Patel – Station Eleven

Sebastian Stan – Pam & Tommy

Who Will Win: Michael Keaton

Who Should Win: Oscar Isaac (the only performance I watched was Garfield’s but I just want Oscar Isaac to win something before he enters lifetime achievement Oscar age).

Upset Special: Andrew Garfield

Keaton has cleaned up at every other award show he’s been to and given the topicality of Dopesick and Keaton’s status as an unproblematic Hollywood elder statesman, I expect him to continue his winning streak at the Emmys. The Emmys love when movie stars do TV, though, and while there are plenty of movie stars in this category, I think Andrew Garfield has the best shot of all the non-Keatons. He may have been the worst Spider-Man, but he was still Spider-Man!

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Toni Collette – The Staircase

Julia Garner – Inventing Anna

Lily James – Pam & Tommy 

Sarah Paulson – Impeachment: American Crime Story

Margaret Qually – Maid

Amanda Seyfried – The Dropout

Who Will Win: Amanda Seyfried

Who Should Win: Amanda Seyfried

Upset Special: Lily James

Amanda Seyfried gives the greatest performance of her career in The Dropout, nailing Elizabeth Holmes’ uncanny gaze and eerie voice without turning it into a parody or a caricature, finding the driven, flawed, sociopathic person beneath the corporate image management. Maybe the older Emmy voters will be inclined to vote for Lily James or Sarah Paulson since they play recognizable figures from the 90s but Seyfried has had this award locked up since The Dropout debuted.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Murray Bartlett – The White Lotus

Jake Lacy – The White Lotus

Will Poulter – Dopesick

Seth Rogen – Pam & Tommy

Peter Sarsgaard – Dopesick

Michael Stuhlbarg – Dopesick

Steve Zahn – The White Lotus

Who Will Win: Murray Bartlett

Who Should Win: Murray Bartley

Upset Special: Seth Rogen

I was lukewarm on The White Lotus (it promised a more interesting story than it ultimately delivered and its politics were didactic to say the least), but Murray Bartlett knocks it out of the park as a hotel manager who’s professional obligated to be nice to all of the awful people who patronize his resort until he finally snaps. It’s also arguably a lead role. Seth Rogen’s movie star status makes him a bit of a threat, but this is absolutely Bartlett’s award to lose.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Connie Britton – The White Lotus

Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus

Alexandra Daddario – The White Lotus

Kaitlyn Dever – Dopesick

Natasha Rothwell – The White Lotus

Sydney Sweeney – The White Lotus

Who Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge

Who Should Win: Jennifer Coolidge

Upset Special: Sydney Sweeney

The White Lotus is a show full of generally insufferable people. While Jennifer Coolidge’s Tanya McQuoid certainly fits that criteria, she’s also the funniest character on the show, a completely helpless, pathetic excuse for an adult whose spacey, oblivious affectation imbues even the simplest lines with an absurd sense of humor. Sydney Sweeney is probably the buzziest performer here but she also has other opportunities to win on Monday night – and at least in this category, I expect the veteran character actress to win out over her ingenue counterpart.

Outstanding Directing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Dopesick: “The People v. Purdue Pharma” – Danny Strong

The Dropout: “Green Juice” – Michael Showalter

The Dropout: “Iron Sisters” – Francesca Gregorini

Maid: “Sky Blue” – John Wells

Station Eleven: “Wheel of Fire” – Hiro Murai 

The White Lotus – Mike White

What Will Win: Station Eleven

What Should Win: The Dropout (“Green Juice”)

Upset Special: Dopesick (“The People v. Purdue Pharma”)

Hiro Murai has built up a lot of goodwill thanks to his excellent work on Atlanta and he could cash in on some of that support in this category. Directing and writing is typically where the Emmys reward their “underdogs” (see: the Hacks sweep in these categories last year) and I wouldn’t be shocked to see them reward the under-discussed Station Eleven here (helps that it’s nice and topical, too). If I had a vote, it’d certainly be going to Michael Showalter, who masterfully depicted Elizabeth Holmes’ transformation from ethically dubious entrepreneur to full on Silicon Valley supervillain in the haunting “Green Juice.”

Outstanding Writing for a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie

Dopesick: “The People v. Purdue Pharma” – Danny Strong

The Dropout: “I’m in a Hurry” – Elizabeth Meriwether

Impeachment: American Crime Story: “Man Handled” – Sarah Burgess

Maid: “Snaps” – Molly Smith Meltzer

Station Eleven: “Unbroken Circle” – Patrick Somerville

The White Lotus – Mike White

What Will Win: The White Lotus

What Should Win: The Dropout

Upset Special: Station Eleven

Filled with obvious metaphor and social critique about colonialism, capitalism, and “wokeness” (did you ever notice that rich people can be whiny and treat hospitality workers like crap? Me neither!) The White Lotus is a very “writery” show, and Mike White has the benefit of being nominated for the entire series, not just one episode. Station Eleven could also win given my underdog theory but, no surprise, I think it should go to The Dropout, especially for the episode that carefully and sensitively sets up the situations that would lead Elizabeth Holmes to want to become Elizabeth Holmes.

Outstanding Writing for a Variety Special

Ali Wong: Don Wong – Ali Wong

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah Presents: Jordan Klepper Fingers the Globe – Hungary for Democracy – Ian Berger, Devin Delliquanti, Jennifer Flanz, Jordan Klepper, Zhubin Parang, and Scott Sherman

Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel – Jerrod Carmichael

Nicole Byer: BBW (Big Beautiful Weirdo) – Nicole Byer

Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special – Norm Macdonald

Who Will Win: The Daily Show… (not gonna type out this whole thing either)

What Should Win: Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel

Upset Special: Norm Macdonald: Nothing Special

Jerrod Carmichael: Rothaniel is probably the best thing I’ve watched all year. Best known for being the venue in which Carmichael decided to come out as gay, the special, which is directed beautifully by Bo Burnham, doesn’t feel hectoring or exhibitionist in the way many “serious” stand up specials can. Instead, it’s intimate, vulnerable, and painfully genuine – it’s also, most importantly, very funny. Carmichael deserves at least an Emmy for managing to pull it all off, but knowing the mindset of the Emmy voters, they’re more likely to reward the team of writers from the Daily Show special because, as we’ve established, they love that kind of topical comedy. Norm Macdonald, the beloved comedian who passed away a year ago, is the wild card – partially for sympathetic reasons, and partially because there may be a sense that he and his offbeat humor never got its due from mainstream organizations like the Emmys while he was alive.