The 74th Annual Primetime Emmys will take place on Monday, September 12th. This year, rather than assault you with one giant article of predictions, we’re breaking down our analysis into three digestible chunks. Wanna win an office pool for a show no one cares about? Then watch this space over the next three days as we walk you through every obscure acting nominee and comedy special nominated this year as only we can.

No television genre has undergone more changes over the past 20 years than comedy, which has grown from its recorded-in-front-of-a-live-studio-audience roots to more absurdist mockumentary, on to now conventional single cam series, and the influential and critically acclaimed dramedies. The nominees for this year’s Emmys represent that diversity (except for multi-cam sitcoms, which continue to fade into irrelevance), which can make predicting these races (let alone voting for them) a tricky proposition. Comparing apples to oranges has always been the fun part of awards shows for me but how am I supposed to figure out if voters will support the pitch black Barry over more ebullient shows like Ted Lasso and Abbott Elementary? Or comedic-in-name only performances from Henry Winkler to Bowen Yang’s sketch performances? It’s a fraught, perhaps futile task, but I tried to do so nonetheless.

Outstanding Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary

Barry

Curb Your Enthusiasm

Hacks

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Only Murders in the Building

Ted Lasso

What We Do in the Shadows

What Will Win: Hacks

What Should Win: Hacks (or Barry)

Upset Special: Abbott Elementary

Hacks’ kinda sorta upset wins in directing and writing last year felt like a preamble to the show winning the series award its second go around – but I can’t say I’m too confident in my prediction. Ted Lasso is still wildly popular but a comedy hasn’t won back to back series awards since 2017 and the crowd pleaser’s second season was a little uneven. Barry is still acclaimed, but there was a dissenting group of people who weren’t terribly taken with its bleak third season. The old guard will love Abbott Elementary because it’s a network sitcom, but you have to wonder if that might be a liability in the eyes of younger voters who favor prestige dramedies and streaming series. Only Murders in the Building is also beloved but it’s been nearly a year since its first season aired. Hacks feels like it hits more quadrants – it stars a veteran sitcom star, an up and coming millennial comedian, and has the benefits of the HBO branding – but like I said, this race is a bit of a tossup.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Donald Glover – Atlanta

Bill Hader – Barry

Nicholas Hoult – The Great

Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building

Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building

Jason Sudekis – Ted Lasso

Who Will Win: Jason Sudekis

Who Should Win: Bill Hader

Upset Special: Bill Hader

Wins in this category tend to comes in bunches – Alec Baldwin (30 Rock), Jeffrey Tambor (Transparent), and Bill Hader (Barry) have all won this award in back to back years, and Jim Parsons (The Big Bang Theory) won four out of five years he was nominated in the early 2010s. As such, it makes sense that Jason Sudekis would win a second consecutive statue for this role as the titular Ted Lasso, especially in a season in which his incessant optimism is peeled back and scrutinized. But I’m partial to Bill Hader, the only other actor who seems like he has a shot, thanks to his at times terrifying portrayal of a man teetering on the edge of sanity and morality.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

Rachel Brosnahan – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary

Kaley Cuoco – The Flight Attendant

Elle Fanning – The Great

Issa Rae – Insecure

Jean Smart – Hacks

Who Will Win: Jean Smart

Who Should Win: Jean Smart

Upset Special: Quinta Brunson

Another category prone to streaks (Julia Louis-Dreyfus won this award for all but one season of Veep), Jean Smart will likely win again for her portrayal of Deborah Vance, a role that requires her to be cold, overconfident, conflicted, and reluctantly loving all at once. But don’t sleep on Quinta Brunson, the multi-hyphenate mastermind behind Abbott Elementary. An internet comedian turned sitcom star, a win for Brunson would cap off what’s been a pretty charmed year for her already (Abbott Elementary even got a now rare 22 episode order) and another win for the network TV old guard.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series 

Anthony Carrigan – Barry

Brett Goldstein – Ted Lasso

Toheeb Jimoh – Ted Lasso

Nick Mohammed – Ted Lasso

Tony Shaloub – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary

Henry Winkler – Barry

Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live

Who Will Win: Brett Goldstein

Who Should Win: Anthony Carrigan (or Brett Goldstein)

Upset Special: Henry Winkler

This feels like a two horse race between Brett Goldstein and Henry Winkler, and both are plenty deserving (Goldstein’s Roy Kent is the most consistently funny character on Ted Lasso, and while Winkler wasn’t very funny in this season of Barry, he did deliver one of the TV most cathartic scenes) with the slight advantage to Goldstein since he has the more traditionally comedic role. But if I had a vote I’d almost certainly give it to Anthony Carrigan, who imbues a character traditionally used as comic relief with a real sense of hurt and fear as his relationship and criminal empire crumble around him.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Alex Borstein – The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

Hannah Einbinder – Hacks

Janelle James – Abbott Elementary

Kate McKinnon – Saturday Night Live

Sarah Niles – Ted Lasso

Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary

Juno Temple – Ted Lasso

Hannah Waddingham – Ted Lasso

Who Will Win: Janelle James

Who Should Win: Hannah Einbinder

Upset Special: Hannah Waddingham

Breaking the trend of repeat acting winners, the favorite for supporting actress seems to be Janelle James, who The Postrider’s Alexander Hunter said “steals every scene she is in with her selfish and comedic solutions to very real world problems” and also happens to be the Abbott Elementary cast member I see talked about the most on Twitter. Her biggest threat is Hannah Waddingham, who won this award last year and delivers probably the most poignant moment of Ted Lasso’s second season, but Abbott Elementary feels like it’s received too many nominations for it to get shut out, and James is certainly its best chance for a win.

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series 

Atlanta: “New Jazz” – Hiro Murai

Barry: “710N” – Bill Hader

Hacks: “There Will Be Blood” – Lucia Aniello

The Ms. Pat Show: “Baby Daddy Groundhog Day” – Mary Lou Belli

Only Murderers in the Building: “The Boy from 6B” – Cherien Dabis

Only Murderers in the Building: “True Crime” – Jamie Babbit

Ted Lasso: “No Weddings and a Funeral” – MJ Delaney

What Will Win: Barry

What Should Win: Barry

Upset Special: Atlanta

This shouldn’t be much of a race: “710N”’s chase scene was both the best comedy and action set piece of the year, a true testament to Bill Hader’s ability to blend drama, violence, and humor in one sleek package. “New Jazz” let Hiro Murai play with a convoluted narrative structure (and one memorable guest appearance), but “710N” features some old fashioned Hollywood flair that I doubt the voters will be able to pass up.

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series 

Abbott Elementary: “Pilot” – Quinta Brunson

Barry: “710N” – Duffy Boudreau

Barry: “starting now” – Alec Berg and Bill Hader

Hacks: “The One, the Only” – Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs, and Jen Statsky

Only Murders in the Building: “True Crime” – Steve Martin and John Hoffman

Ted Lasso: “No Weddings and a Funeral” – Jane Becker

What We Do in the Shadows: “The Casino” – Sarah Naftalis

What We Do in the Shadows: “The Wellness Center” – Stefani Robinson

What Will Win: Hacks

What Should Win: Hacks

Upset Special: Abbott Elementary

Rewarding Abbott Elementary’s pilot would be a good way to get the charming and effervescent Quinta Brunson on stage for a memorable speech but I think the Academy will reward Hacks again for its brutally funny writing and for managing to put together an episode that could’ve doubled as a series finally if need be. Versatility – an underrated skill in an uncertain industry like television!