The 74th Annual Primetime Emmys will take place on Monday, September 12th. This year, rather than assault you with one giant article of predictions, we’re breaking down our analysis into three digestible chunks. Wanna win an office pool for a show no one cares about? Then watch this space over the next three days as we walk you through every obscure acting nominee and comedy special nominated this year as only we can.

More so than most other awards institutions, the Emmys have been pretty amenable to genre fare. Game of Thrones won four of the five Outstanding Drama Series awards handed out between 2015 and 2019, with The Handmaid’s Tale winning the one gap year in 2017. Does that mean shows like Severance, Squid Game, and Stranger Things have a shot against heavy HBO favorites Succession and Euphoria? Probably not for the biggest award of the night, but they’re right in the thick of things in the down ballot races, which, barring a huge Succession sweep, should make the drama categories the most interesting of the night. Read on to see me try (and likely fail) to make sense of it all.

Outstanding Drama Series

Better Call Saul

Euphoria

Ozark

Severance

Squid Game

Stranger Things

Succession

Yellowjackets

What Will Win: Succession

What Should Win: Severance (or Better Call Saul)

Upset Special: Euphoria

This is a pretty deep field full of prestige cable dramas and streaming sensations, but it really feels like a two horse race between Succession and Euphoria, the two HBO heavyweights. Arguably the most talked about TV show when you filter out people under the age of 22 (sorry, Stranger Things) Succession, which won this award two years ago, feels like the clear favorite, but there is something about Euphoria that feels “timely,” and that could appeal to voters as well. If I had a vote, I’d be tempted to cast it for Better Call Saul, if only because it’s been unjustly ignored by the Academy for the entirety of its run. But there are Better Call Saul seasons more deserving of awards than this one, and I think I’d ultimately be swayed to support Severance, an inventive, moving, and gripping show that packed a lot of great, tense storytelling into its first season.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Jason Bateman – Ozark

Brian Cox – Succession

Lee Jung-jae – Squid Game

Bob Odenkirk – Better Call Saul

Adam Scott – Severance

Jeremy Strong – Succession

Who Will Win: Jeremy Strong

Who Should Win: Jeremy Strong (or Bob Odenkirk)

Upset Special: Lee Jung-jae

Jeremy Strong has arguably become the most talked about actor in the most talked about show on television, and I expect him to be honored again for his intense portrayal of Kendall Roy, the prodigal son of the Waystar Royco dynasty. It’s hard to disagree with that choice, but as with Better Call Saul as a whole, it’s hard not to feel like Bob Odenkirk should win this year to right many, many years of wrongs. Lee Jung-jae, who won the equivalent SAG award, is another nominee to keep an eye on, but I’m not sure the Squid Game hype has lasted long enough for him to secure a win.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Jodie Comer – Killing Eve

Laura Linney – Ozark

Melanie Lynskey – Yellowjackets

Sandra Oh – Killing Eve

Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show

Zendaya – Euphoria

Who Will Win: Melanie Lynskey

Who Should Win: I have somehow gone all year without watching one of these shows so, uh, no comment. I hear that the last season of Killing Eve was not very good but I’m a sucker for Jodie Comer’s Scouse accent, so I wouldn’t exactly mind having to listen to another acceptance speech from her.

Upset Special: Zendaya

Zendaya pulled an upset in this category two years ago and could do it again, but Melanie Lynskey has already won a fair bit of hardware for her breakout role in Yellowjackets. As a respected character actress turned topline star, she’s also the sentimental favorite, and by far the best story going into the night.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

Nicholas Braun – Succession

Billy Crudup – The Morning Show

Kieran Culkin – Succession

Matthew Macfadyen – Succession

O Yeong-su – Squid Game

Park Hae-soo – Squid Game

John Turturro – Severance

Christopher Walken – Severance

Who Will Win: Kieran Culkin

Who Should Win: Matthew Macfadyen

Upset Special: Matthew Macfadyen

I will never say anything bad about Kieran Culkin’s portrayal of Roman Roy, which requires him to be funny, vulgar, and cruel, but also convey that his abhorrent behavior is actually a mask for his insecurities and desire to please his father, all at the same time. But there is no way you can convince me that he does a better job than Matthew Macfadyen, who also portrays a funny and vulgar character, but one who packs it in so much deeper, and one who’s forced to be as clever as he is because he knows, by virtue of not being born a Roy, he’ll be the sacrificed for the good of the family’s company if the walls begin to close in. Tom Wambsgans is a man who desperately wants the respect of his wife and her family but knows he will never get it, and that pain, that indignity, seeps through every aspect of Macfadyen’s performance. He deserves an Emmy and more for it.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

Patricia Arquette – Severance

Julia Garner – Ozark

HoYeon Jung – Squid Game

Christina Ricci – Yellowjackets

Rhea Seehorn – Better Call Saul

J. Smith-Cameron – Succession

Sarah Snook – Succession

Sydney Sweeney – Euphoria

Who Will Win: Sydney Sweeney

Who Should Win: Patricia Arquette (or Rhea Seehorn)

Upset Special: HoYeon Jung

I have never seen an episode of Euphoria (I know a lot of people who like it, but it feels like a show designed to shock parents into thinking their kids are a bunch of sex-crazed drug addicts, and I refuse to indulge it) but Sydney Sweeney is very much an “it” girl right now, and I could see her taking home the Supporting Actress award from what’s actually a pretty competitive field. I’m partial to Patricia Arquette’s somewhat over the top portrayal of a corporate fanatic on Severance but HoYeon Jung, who won a SAG award for Squid Game and is now one of the world’s biggest models, also has a pretty good shot at winning. I’ve been pushing for a long time for Rhea Seehorn to finally get a nomination for her incredible work on Better Call Saul, so I wouldn’t object to her winning here either, but I think she has a better shot at winning at next year’s awards.

Outstanding Directing for a Drama Series

Ozark: “A Hard Way to Go” – Jason Bateman

Severance: “The We We Are” – Ben Stiller

Squid Game: “Red Light, Green Light” – Hwang Dong-hyuk

Succession: “All the Bells Say” – Mark Mylod

Succession: “The Disruption” – Cathy Yan

Succession: “Too Much Birthday” – Lorena Scafaria

Yellowjackets: “Pilot” – Karyn Kusama

What Will Win: Succession (“All the Bells Say”)

What Should Win: Severance

Upset Special: Severance

“All the Bells Say” is an excellent season finale that literally saves the best reveal for last, turning the Roy clan upside down and setting the stage for what’s sure to be a fascinating fourth season of Succession. But “The We We Are” was probably the best non-Better Call Saul episode of 2022, a thrilling ticking clock that balanced four disparate but connected stories, each with their own set of high stakes and tense reveals. The flashy scene transitions and balance required to pull it off could net Ben Stiller an Emmy, but I still think this is Mark Mylod’s award to lose.

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

Better Call Saul: “Plan and Execution” – Thomas Schnauz

Ozark: “A Hard Way to Go” – Chris Mundy

Severance: “The We We Are” – Dan Erickson

Squid Game: “One Lucky Day” – Hwang Dong-hyuk

Succession: “All the Bells Say” – Jesse Armstrong

Yellowjackets: “F Sharp” – Jonathan Lisco, Ashley Lyle, and Bart Nickerson

Yellowjackets: “Pilot” – Ashley Lyle and Bart Nickerson

What Will Win: Succession

What Should Win: Better Call Saul (or Severance)

Upset Special: Severance

Once again, I think Succession is gonna pretty much dominate Emmys night, and the devious twist at the end of “All the Bells Say” will probably lead to it prevailing in the writing category. While I think “The We We Are” is a great episode of television and certainly a worthy winner, “Plan and Execution” provides the is with the satisfying realization of Saul and Kim’s plan finally coming together and an absolute gut punch of a final scene. It would get my vote if I had one.