The Postrider’s 2022 Oscars Preview and Predictions
In 2019, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences was in crisis. The Academy Awards, a television event – that at its peak attracted a 43.40 Nielsen household share – was coming off of a series that had attracted the lowest ratings ever. Hoping to once again capture the attention of the television viewing public and please their partners at ABC, who had broadcast every ceremony since 1976, the Academy’s leaders came up with two radical ideas they hoped would restore the Oscars to its formal place in the pop cultural hierarchy. First, they would shorten the ceremony by presenting four awards – Best Cinematography, Best Live Action Short Film, Best Film Editing, and Best Makeup and Hairstyling – during commercial breaks, streaming them online for anyone who wanted to see them live and airing truncated versions of the presentations to the ABC broadcast. They would also introduce a new category called Best Popular Film, which would recognize blockbusters like Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War, and, hopefully, in the process convince the millions of viewers of those movies to tune into the ceremony as well.
Neither of these changes would take place. At least, not in 2019. Outrage on social media and within the industry was powerful enough to shame the Academy into presenting all of the awards on live television, and to put the kibosh on the Best Popular Film award, the parameters of which were never announced. But in 2022, the Academy – and, more importantly, ABC – are finally getting what they wanted. In February, the Academy announced that, in yet another effort to try and shorten the ceremony, eight awards (Animated Short Film, Documentary Short Subject, Film Editing, Live Action Short Film, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design and Sound) would be presented before the full ceremony, with the highlights of each speech edited into the broadcast. They also announced that they’d be holding a Twitter contest for an “Oscar Fan Favorite” award, in which viewers would vote on their favorite movie (as of late February the leaderboard include Amazon’s critically derided live action Cinderella and Minamata, a little seen Johnny Depp film that the controversial actor’s fans seem intent to make the victor), as well as a vote for an “Oscars Cheer Moment,” in which the hoi polloi would be able to select their favorite scene from a list of seemingly random films.
As in 2019, opposition to these changes has been fierce. Over 70 filmmakers, including James Cameron, Guillermo del Toro, Denis Villeneuve, and John Williams, signed an open letter demanding that the Academy reverse its decisions not to broadcast all of the awards, and the Fan Favorite award was roundly criticized from both professional film writers and daytime talk show hosts. But unlike 2019, the Academy has not relented. A charitable assessment as to why they haven’t given into popular demands this go around is because they have no choice – according to The Hollywood Reporter, ABC threatened to cancel the Oscars telecast unless the Academy awarded 12 awards off air, which was later negotiated down to only 8. But even if you’re willing to admit that ABC had the Academy over a barrel when it comes to the broadcast (they own the show’s broadcasting rights through 2028), there’s no compelling argument to make that any of these strategies are going to work, or that they even reflect an understanding of the current media environment.
I understand both ABC and the Academy’s concerns about viewership. Last year’s ceremony, which was held a month later than intended at Los Angeles’ Union station because of COVID-19 concerns, received only 10.4 million viewers, the fewest since Nielsen began tracking such data. While the pop cultural calendar’s pandemic-related disorientation can shoulder much of the blame for this lack of interest, it reflects a greater trend that began around the late 1990s, when viewership started to fall precipitously. If you assume that people have stopped watching the show because it’s too long and because it doesn’t nominate enough popular movies (the cumulative box office totals of the Best Picture winners have fallen along with viewership), the changes demanded by ABC and enacted by the Academy make sense. But the idea that the “comedy, film clips and musical numbers” the Academy said would replace the eliminated award presentations will bring back viewers is wishful thinking. That’s because the Oscars losing viewers isn’t a crisis. Instead, it’s a symptom of a greater crisis – namely, the de-emphasis on moviegoing in American culture. The Marvel Cinematic Universe and the Fast and Furious franchise may be making money hand over fist, but they’re parts of a larger whole with predictable story beats and plot structures. In other words, they’re like episodes of a very expensive tv series, which, thanks to streaming platforms, has become the average Americans’ preferred storytelling medium. Even if the Academy did honor more blockbusters, when presented with the choice of watching a lavish awards show with lots of commercial interruptions or binging watching Ozark commercial free, people are going to stick with the latter.
What Do You Do With a Problem Like the Oscars?
So what should the Academy do? First, they should trim the fat – not by eliminating the presentation of below the line awards, but by getting rid of the chessy comedy and musical performances that no one has ever asked for. Focus less on being a show and more on being one giant advertisement for the art and passion of filmmaking. The reason I’m so obsessed with this silly, frustrating awards show is because, as a child, it introduced me to movies I would have never heard of otherwise, and made me think about movies in a way I never would have either. The goal of the show shouldn’t be to entertain – it should be to celebrate.
In a similar vein, the Academy should do what any good trade organization does: devote millions of dollars to its self-preservation. Invest in arthouse cinemas in underserved areas. Provide scholarships and grants to film students. Fund other film education programs. Lobby Congress to give creators a bigger cut of streaming revenues. And, if it’s not too much of a conflict of interest, bankroll some non-blockbuster movies and get them distributed. Even though I love them, I have to admit that the Academy Awards are silly. But the medium they’re meant to reward and that the Academy is meant to advance is something worth preserving and perpetuating, especially as its economic landscape goes through a series of dramatic, transitory convulsions. The Oscars have always done a great job of documenting the past. It’s time they started to build the future, too.
But first, let’s tackle the immediate future and go through The Postrider’s predictions for the 94th Academy Awards.
The Predictions
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Dune
Upset Special: CODA
After the Belfast and (*sighs*) Don’t Look Up discourse peaked early, The Power of the Dog emerged as the darling of awards season, winning nearly every major Best Picture-type award it was up for. But the unassuming CODA has surged in recent weeks thanks to winning the best picture analog at the Producers’ Guild Awards and Best Cast at the Screen Actors’ Guild awards, making them the trendy upset pick. Producers and actors make up big Academy voting blocks, of course, but I’m inclined to stick with The Power of the Dog as the likelist winner. It received 12 nominations, good for the third most of all time, which includes scores of below-the-line nominations that CODA lacks. In fact, if CODA wins Best Picture, it’ll become the first film to do so without a Best Film Editing nomination since Birdman in 2014. And if you’re counting movies that weren’t edited to look like one continuous shot, you have to go all the way back to 1980’s Ordinary People to find a non-Editing-nominated winner. Precedents were made to be defied, of course, but, at the end of the day, I feel like The Power of the Dog’s broad crafts-based support will be enough to push it over the finish line.
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson – Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Brannagh – Belfast
Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi – Drive My Car
Steven Spielberg – West Side Story
Will Win: Jane Campion
Should Win: Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Upset Special: Kenneth Branagh
Jane Campion has been laying absolute waste to the competition this awards season and, so much so that, if she does end up losing, it’ll be because she did so much winning: an awkward joke she made about the Williams sisters while accepting her Critics’ Choice Award sparked some minor backlash. I doubt it’ll have much of an impact (if the reception of Patricia Arquette’s acceptance speech from 2015 is any metric, my guess is that most Academy winners agree with her than with the Twitter mob), but if she does lose, it’ll probably be to Brannagh – actors are still the biggest branch of the Academy, and he’s the only actor nominated. Unfortunately, he’s also the least deserving – the statue should go to Ryusuke Hamaguchi, who made a three hour movie about a sad experimental theater director that, by some miracle, was neither tedious nor prenetionous.
Best Actor
Javier Bardem – Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield – Tick, Tick…Boom!
Will Smith – King Richard
Denzel Washington – The Tragedy of Macbeth
Will Win: Will Smith
Should Win: Benedict Cumberbatch
Upset Special: Benedict Cumberbatch
The “Will Smith deserves an Oscar so he’s getting one for a perfectly copacetic but generally uninteresting role in a middlebrow biopic” train has been full steam ahead for the past three months, and it should reach its final stop as scheduled at the Oscars. His most likely competition is Benedict Cumberbatch, who’s also my favorite of the three performances I’ve seen. I’ve never been an enthusiastic fan of his, but was fascinated to watch him trade in his British version of smarminess (snarky, cutting, wearing a smart blazer or ascot) for an American version of it (loud, mean, covered in dirt).
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman – The Lost Daughter
Penelope Cruz – Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman – Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart – Spencer
Will Win: Olivia Colman
Should Win: Olivia Colman
Upset Special: Jessica Chastain
With no nominees from the Best Picture field (justice for Alana Haim and Rachel Zegler!) and no entries in the historically bellwether BAFTAs, this Best Actress race is about as close of a tossup you can get in an above the line category these days. If anyone has momentum it’s Jessica Chastain, who recently took home a SAG and a Critics’ Choice Award for her portrayal of garishly made-up televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker. But I remain hopeful that The Lost Daughter’s nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay is a signal that more voters will go for Colman’s prickly, misanthropic performance than expected, and she’ll end up eking out a win on Sunday night.
Best Supporting Actor
Ciaran Hinds – Belfast
Troy Kotsur – CODA
Jesse Plemons – The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons – Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee – The Power of the Dog
Will Win: Troy Kotsur
Should Win: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Upset Special: Kodi Smit-McPhee
Kodi Smit-McPhee seemed primed to join Jane Campion and The Power of the Dog itself as a sure thing come Oscar night, but after winning a Golden Globe in a ceremony that nobody watched because it was literally not on TV, he’s gone on to lose the SAG, Critics’ Choice, and BAFTA to CODA’s Troy Kotsur, a beneficiary of Apple’s aggressive for your consideration campaign. My preference is still Smit-McPhee’s layered, enigmatic performance of prey-turned-predator, but it’s also hard to deny Kotsur’s charm and the history at stake (He would become only the second deaf actor to win an Oscar. The other? His co-star Marlee Matlin, who won in 1986 for Children of a Lesser God).
Best Supporting Actress
Jessie Buckley – The Lost Daughter
Ariana DeBose – West Side Story
Judi Dench – Belfast
Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis – King Richard
Will Win: Ariana DeBose
Should Win: Ariana DeBose
Upset Special: Judi Dench
Not much drama here: Ariana DeBose has won nearly every award imaginable for her role as Anita in West Side Story, and figures to do the same at the Oscars. If she does win, Anita will become the third role to win two different performers an Academy Award – Rita Moreno won Best Supporting Actress for the original West Side Story in 1961 – joining the ranks of Vito Coreolone (Marlon Brando in 1972 for The Godfather, Robert De Niro in 1974 for The Godfather Part II) and, uh, the Joker (Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight in 2008, Joaquin Phoenix in Joker in 2019). If anyone is standing in her way it’s probably Judi Dench, but the chances of an upset remain slight.
Best Original Screenplay
Belfast
Don’t Look Up
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Worst Person in the World
Will Win: Belfast
Should Win: Licorice Pizza
Upset Special: Don’t Look Up
Belfast started awards season as a heavy favorite to win Best Picture, but it’ll likely have to settle for Best Original Screenplay, notching Kenneth Branagh his first Oscar in five tries. Paul Thomas Anderson’s win for Licorice Pizza at the BAFTAs could hint at an upset in the making, but all of that Belfast love has to go somewhere. I’d like to think that Anderson is the most likely upset, too, but given the Academy’s affinity for Adam McKay, I’m afraid to say that Don’t Look Up’s smug, self-satisfied script is the most likely surprise winner.
Best Adapted Screenplay
CODA
Drive My Car
Dune
The Lost Daughter
The Power of the Dog
Will Win: The Power of the Dog
Should Win: Drive My Car
Upset Special: CODA
If the Critics’ Choice mini-controversy does end up hurting Campion anywhere it’ll probably be in the adapted screenplay race, which she had largely been dominated before CODA breakthrough at the BAFTAs. But if any movie should deny Campion from winning the Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay hat trick (the full Bong, if you will) it should be Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe for Drive My Car, a big script with no bloat.
Best Animated Feature Film
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
Will Win: Encanto
Should Win: The Mitchells vs. The Machines which, to be fair, is the only one of these movies that I’ve seen.
Upset Special: Flee
A good rule of thumb is that if a movie has a Billboard topping single that Academy voters’ kids probably like, it’ll probably win its given category. Another rule of thumb might be that if a movie is nominated for Best Animated Feature, Best International Feature, and Best Documentary Feature it should probably win one of those awards, but Flee is the first movie to ever do that, so we don’t have a lot of precedent to work off of here.
Best International Feature
Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Will Win: Drive My Car
Should Win: Drive My Car
Upset Special: The Worst Person in the World
I’ve already used this joke before, but the only way Drive My Car, which was also nominated for Best Picture, loses this award is if the Academy is intent on breaking the transitive property. That being said, The Worst Person in the World, which was also nominated for Original Screenplay, shouldn’t be underestimated. That probably means it’ll lose by 80% of the vote rather than 90%, but if you’re looking for a long shot bet with a conceivable chance of winning, you could do worse.
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Writing with Fire
Will Win: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)
Should Win: Look, there are only so many movies I can see in a year and I don’t want to just say Summer of Soul because it’s the only one I’ve seen
Upset Special: Flee
I really want to pick Flee given its historic trio of nominations, but Summer of Soul is the most uplifting and easily accessible for these movies, and has been broadcast on ABC a few times this year, which means it’s also probably the most viewed. It’s deserving in the very least for the Pips’ choreography.
Best Documentary Short Subject
Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Will Win: Audible
Should Win: I haven’t seen any of these, so I’m rooting for a five way tie.
Upset Special: Lead Me Home
The shorts categories are always a crapshoot, so let’s think this through: Audible and Lead Me Home are both on Netflix, which means that they’re the most accessible to Academy members. Lead Me Home is about homelessness, which is the kind of important issue that will get a short documentary noticed, but Audible is about a deaf basketball player who’s also dealing with a friend’s suicide, which means it’s about two important issues, so it’ll get the edge in my predictions.
Best Live Action Short Film
Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
The Dress
The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Will Win: The Long Goodbye
Should Win: I also haven’t seen any of these, so I will also be rooting for a five way tie.
Upset Special: Ala Kachuu – Take and Run
None of these films are on Netflix, so we’ll go with the celebrity factor and assume The Long Goodbye, which stars former Best Actor nominee Riz Ahmed, will win. Ala Kachuu takes place in the former Soviet Union, a region surely on voters’ minds, so we’ll slot that in as our upset pick.
Best Animated Short Film
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
BoxBallet
Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Will Win: Robin Robin
Should Win: Have I seen any of these movies? No I have not. Will I be rooting for a five way tie? Indeed I will.
Upset Special: Bestia
One of the many things the coronavirus robbed us of was the theatrical Pixar short, which would run before Pixar’s features and would usually win this award if nominated In lieu of a Bao or a Sandpiper, I’ll go with Robin Robin, which based on its Wikipedia synopsis sounds the most like a Pixar short and is available on Netflix. Bestia, which is about the Chilean secret police, seems “important,” so that’ll get the upset spot.
Best Original Score
Don’t Look Up – Nicholas Britell
Dune – Hans Zimmer
Encanto – Germaine Franco
Parallel Mothers – Alberto Iglesias
The Power of the Dog – Johnny Greenwood
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Upset Special: Encanto
Some voters might see Encanto’s nomination and check its box since it’s a musical and this is a music award, but the almost certain winner is Hans Zimmer, who’s swept most of the preceding awards and who literally had to invent new instruments for Dune’s score. It’s hard to imagine Dune working without both its diegetic (space bagpipes!) and nondiegetic music, and also hard for voters to pass up the chance to rectify a staggering 1-to-11 win-to-nomination ratio for Zimmer.
Best Original Song
“Be Alive” from King Richard (Music and lyrics by DIXSON and Beyonce Knowles-Carter)
“Dos Oruguitas” from Encanto (Music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda)
“Down to Joy” from Belfast (Music and Lyrics by Van Morrison)
“No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (Music and lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell)
“Somehow You Do” from Four Good Days (Music and lyrics by Diane Warren)
Will Win: “Dos Oruguitas”
Should Win: “Down to Joy” is my favorite song on the list, but nothing about Van Morrison’s behavior from the last two years merits an award, so let’s go with “Be Alive.”
Upset Special: “No Time to Die”
Do Oscar voters like Beyonce, Lin-Manuel Miranda, or Billie Eilish better? They’ve already shown favor to Eilish by having her perform “No Time to Die” nearly two years before the actual movie was released, and Beyonce on the Oscars stage would generate the most online buzz, but my bet is they go with Miranda, who’s looking to complete his EGOT quest.
Best Sound
Belfast
Dune
No Time to Die
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Upset Special: No Time to Die
The sound in the four non-Dune nominees is fine. The sound in Dune sucks the viewer into an entire other world, and should win for that transportational experience. Skyfall did win Best Sound Editing in 2012, though, so if there’s going to be any upset, it’ll probably be that.
Best Production Design
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Will win: Dune
Should win: Dune
Upset special: The Tragedy of Macbeth
The Tragedy of Macbeth has won plaudits for its spare German Expressionist inspired sets and photography, but they just don’t compare with the desert palaces of Dune.
Best Cinematography
Dune
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story
Will win: The Power of the Dog
Should win: West Side Story
Upset special: Dune
Greig Fraser and Ari Wegner have won most of the pre-Oscar awards and I wouldn’t be surprised (or upset) if either won, but I bet that the Academy will go with Wegner, which would make her the first woman to ever win this award. There isn’t a bad choice in the bunch, but my very favorite is Janusz Kaminiski, who should win for this frame from West Side Story alone.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Coming 2 America
Cruella
Dune
The Eyes of Tammy Faye
House of Gucci
Will Win: The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Should Win: Dune
Upset Special: Cruella
There aren’t a ton of makeup and hairstyling awards pre-Oscar, but the few that have been given out have gone to the Eyes of Tammy Faye, which makes sense since that movie’s entire pitch is “watch Jessica Chastain play a televangelist with ugly makeup.” It’s most likely challenger is Cruella, because that movie’s entire pitch is “watch Emma Stone be evil with black and white hair.”
Best Costume Design
Cruella
Cyrano
Dune
Nightmare Alley
West Side Story
Will Win: Cruella
Should Win: West Side Story
Upset Special: Cyrano
It’s usually a good idea to pick a lavish period piece like Cyrano to win this award, but Cruella won the costume award at the Critics’ Choice Awards, which I guess makes sense considering it’s about an evil fashion designer.
Best Film Editing
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick… Boom!
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Upset Special: King Richard
There isn’t a clear front runner here – I was worried Don’t Look Up would have a chance since its editing, which stitches in non-sequitur images of the environment in between the film’s interminable plot, is the most noticeable, but the air seems to have been let out of that particular balloon. King Richard and Tick, Tick… Boom! both won awards from the American Cinema Editors, but I don’t see them having enough support from the wider Academy, so I’ll stick with Dune, who I already think will take away a bunch of craft awards.
Best Visual Effects
Dune
Free Guy
No Time to Die
Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Spider-Man: No Way Home
Will Win: Dune
Should Win: Dune
Upset Special: No Time to Die
How many ways can I say that Dune is good and will probably win most of the technical awards? Dune is good and will probably win most of the technical awards, and Best Visual Effects will be no different! The one possible underdog I see pulling it off is No Time to Die, which the Academy seems to like more than I would have anticipated, which is hilarious, because it means the three Disney properties have pretty much no chance of winning this award. Karma for all of ABC’s machinations, if you ask me.
Tune in to the 94th Academy Awards at 8 pm Eastern Time on ABC, and listen to me and Louis Ryan break down the nominees and changes to the ceremony on Pony Express.