Until Will Smith slapped Chris Rock onstage at last year’s Oscars, Moonlight’s upset of La La Land at the 89th Academy Awards probably stood out to many people as the most shocking awards show moment of all time. But way back in 2015, the Grammys saw a much less dramatic, but arguably more unlikely, upset of their own. Beyoncé’s self-titled surprise-release album, an intimate and political record that firmly established her as the center of the recording industry, lost its bid for Album of the Year to Morning Phase, a quiet, unassuming record from one-time adventurous singer/songwriter Beck.   

What made this such an upset wasn’t the quality of either records, per se (both albums were featured in multiple end of the year lists), but the size of them. As of this writing, Beyoncé has gone five-times platinum and is treated as a watershed moment in popular music history, whereas Morning Phase never topped either the Billboard Alternative or Rock Charts and, if you were to poll Beck fans, would probably end up ranked at sixth or seventh among his 14 studio albums. When Beyoncé lost Album of the Year two years later, it was at least to Adele’s 25, which has gone platinum in 17 different countries and diamond in three others. But her loss to Beck was a testament to the Grammys’ seemingly random whims. Just when you think sales is all they care about, they surprise you by rewarding an unsuspecting album like Morning Phase or, as was the case last year, Jon Batiste’s We Are, an album that – even after winning music’s biggest prize – still doesn’t have an entry on Metacritic.

I write all of this to say that while things finally seem set up for Beyoncé this year, we shouldn’t take a victory for her smash hit Renaissance for granted. And while it would be one thing if the Queen of 21st Century Pop lost to a mega-selling contemporary like Adele, Lizzo, Bad Bunny, Harry Styles, or Kendrick Lamar, it’s just as likely that she’ll lose Mary J. Blige or Coldplay, two wildly successful artists in their day who haven’t had a recognizable hit in a decade, or even ABBA, the legendary Swedish pop band who, for some reason, find themselves nominated for Album of the Year nearly half a century after their creative and commercial peak. In other words, do not take the following predictions as gospel, even in the rock and alternative categories, where I ostensibly have some expertise. We all know what should happen, but the Grammys have never cared about what they should do. They only care about what they want and like, and those things are ever changing and consistently unpredictable. It’s why I keep watching this show, which typically features artists I don’t care about giving performances that are only okay. People with good taste tend to agree with each other. People with bad taste are unique. The Grammys have bad taste, and I look forward to seeing how they express it on Sunday night.

Album of the Year

Good Morning Gorgeous – Mary J. Blige

Harry’s House – Harry Styles

In These Silent Days – Brandi Carlisle

Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers – Kendrick Lamar

Music of the Spheres – Coldplay

Renaissance – Beyoncé

Special – Lizzo

30 – Adele

Un Verano Sin Ti – Bad Bunny

Voyage – ABBA

Will Win: Renaissance

Should Win: Renaissance

Upset Special: 30

In another year, Bad Bunny, Harry Styles, and maybe even Lizzo would have a decent crack at Album of the Year, but this race really feels like it’s coming down to Adele v. Beyoncé, two artists that have faced off against each other before and represent two sides of the music industry. One is an innovative but commercially successful icon whose appeal transcends generations, the other a traditional torch singer who’s put out technically competent but very safe music for nearly a decade. Even though Adele is much more of a Grammy-bait type artist, Renaissance, which is as much of a tribute to dance music and R&B’s past as it is an artistic step forward, feels like the kind of album that an artist like Beyonce would need to release to finally win Album of the Year. But never doubt the resolute squareness of Grammy voters, who gave this award to a corny Jon Batiste album no one listened to last year. I’ve got my fingers crossed for a better result this go around, but I’m girding myself for disappointment as well.

Record of the Year 

“About Damn Time” – Lizzo

“As It Was” – Harry Styles

“Bad Habit” – Steve Lacy

“Break My Soul” – Beyoncé

“Don’t Shut Me Down” – ABBA

“Easy on Me” – Adele 

“Good Morning Gorgeous” – Mary J. Blige

“The Heart Part 5” – Kendrick Lamar

“Woman” – Doja Cat

“You and Me on the Rock” – Brandi Carlisle feat. Lucius 

Will Win: “Break My Soul”

Should Win: “Break My Soul”

Upset Special: “Easy on Me”

“Breaky My Soul” isn’t my favorite track from Renaissance, but this is a production award, and it’s the only song from this list that stands out in that respect (to say nothing of its world conquering popularity). That said, Adele is a threat in every category she’s nominated in, and Record of the Year is not different. As she’s proven time and time again, sometimes not taking a risk pulls off.

Song of the Year

“ABCDEFU” – Gayle

“About Damn Time” – Lizzo

“All Too Well (10 Minute Version)” – Taylor Swift

“As It Was” – Harry Styles

“Bad Habit” – Steve Lacy

“Break My Soul” – Beyoncé

“Easy on Me” – Adele

“God Did” – DJ Khaled feat. Rick Ross, Lil Wayne, Jay-Z, John Legend, Fridayy 

“The Heart Part 5” – Kendrick Lamar

“Just Like That” – Bonnie Raitt

Will Win: “Easy on Me”

Should Win: “Bad Habit”

Upset Special: “Break My Soul”

I don’t trust the Academy to not give Adele a high-profile award, and Song of the Year is where they’re most likely to do so given that “Easy on Me” is a pretty traditional ballad whereas the next most likely winner, “Break My Soul” is much more production driven. That said, I’d love it if they decided to reward Steve Lacy’s “Bad Habit,” which was for a time the number one single in America, and a much more layered and conflicted take on love and attraction than most of the other songs nominated.

Best New Artist

Anitta

Omar Apollo

Domi and JD Beck

Samara Joy

Latto

Måneskin

Muni Long

Tobe Nwigwe 

Molly Tuttle

Wet Leg

Will Win: Måneskin

Should Win: Wet Leg

Upset Special: Wet Leg

This is a pretty weak field, which also makes it tough to predict – none of these artists are nominated in any of the other general categories, and outside of maybe Latto, none of them had the kind of massive hit that would make them a favorite. So it’s with only the slightest confidence I’ll predict Måneskin, a hacky corporate rock band that’s been the subject of a few braindead “Can this band save rock?” pieces over the past few months, will win. But if you ask me the award should go to Wet Leg, who are admittedly a little shallow themselves, but in a much more interesting and exciting way.

Best Rock Album 

The Boy Named If – Elvis Costello & The Imposters

Crawler – IDLES

Dropout Boogie – The Black Keys

Mainstream Sellout – Machine Gun Kelly

Lucifer on the Sofa – Spoon

Patient Number 9 – Ozzy Osbourne

Will Win: Lucifer on the Sofa

Should Win: Lucifer on the Sofa

Upset Special: Crawler

If you’ve been reading my Grammy predictions columns for a while, you know that I think that the Grammys’ approach to the genre is broken at best embarrassing at worst, and represent a fundamental incuriosity that often results in past-their-prime artists and mediocre industry darlings receiving nominations over the young, exciting artists who are keeping rock music alive. This year’s field is not exactly good, but it could’ve been a whole lot worse, and the fact that IDLES (a band that’s not really for me) and Spoon (a very good band whose best work is behind them) received nomination shows that at least some voters are making a modicum of an effort to nominate relevant acts (the less said about Machine Gun Kelly the better). Lucifer on the Sofa is the best album nominated, and given that Spoon have firmly attained elder statesman status, I expect it to win. Still, I wouldn’t be shocked if Crawler, which also spawned a Best Rock Performance nominee, pulled off the upset.

Best Rock Performance

“Broken Horses” – Brandi Carlisle

“Crawl!” – IDLES

“Holiday” – Turnstile

“Old Man” – Beck 

“Patient Number 9” – Ozzy Osbourne feat. Jeff Beck

“So Happy It Hurts” – Bryan Adams

“Wild Child” – The Black Keys

Will Win: “Broken Horses”

Should Win: “Holiday”

Upset Special: “Patient Number 9”

Your eyes do not deceive you – according to the Grammys, one of the best rock songs of the year was Beck’s cover of Neil Young’s “Old Man,” which he recorded to promote a Sunday Night Football showdown between Patrick Mahomes’ Kansas City Chiefs at Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, yet another example of how broken the rock awards are at the Grammys. The most deserving song in this field is Turnstile’s “Holiday,” whose chances are probably bolstered by… being featured in a Taco Bell commercial. While I think “Holiday” is a threat to win because that ad is played about 500 times every football game while the Beck ad only ran for a week, I’m still inclined to brand “Broken Horses” as the favorite, if only because Brandi Carlisle seems to win a Grammy every time she so much as whistles a note.

Best Rock Song

“Black Summer” – Red Hot Chili Peppers

“Blackout” – Turnstile

“Broken Horses” – Brandi Carlisle

“Harmonia’s Dream” – The War On Drugs

“Patient Number 9” – Ozzy Osbourne feat. Jeff Beck

Will Win: “Broken Horses”

Should Win: “Blackout” (“Harmonia’s Dream” is fine too)

Upset Special: “Harmonia’s Dream”

Another thing you’ve probably noticed if you read my writing on the Grammys is that the Academy really likes giving awards to people who’ve recently passed, but given that Jeff Beck, who’s nominated here for probably the worst song either he or Ozzy Osbourne has performed on, passed away before the close of voting, he won’t be getting a boost here. Again, it’s never advisable to bet against Brandi Carlisle at the Grammys, but The War On Drugs split the difference between tradition and innovation well enough that they may just pull off the win too. I’d be ok with that, but as someone who had trouble getting into I Don’t Live Here Anymore, I would be casting my vote for Turnstile again.

Best Metal Performance

“Blackout” – Turnstile

“Call Me Sunshine” – Ghost

“Degradation Rules” – Ozzy Osbourne feat. Tony Iommi

“Kill or Be Killed” – Muse

“We’ll Be Back” – Megadeth

Will Win: “Blackout”

Should Win: “Blackout”

Upset Special: “Degradation Rules”

This is the first time in a while where I’ve heard at least one nominee in this category before I sat down to write this article, and given Turnstile and “Blackout”’s nominations elsewhere, I expect it to come away with the golden gramophone. Given Turnstile’s punk pedigree, “Blackout” wouldn’t be the winner if you polled a group of metalheads (neither would Muse, for that matter), but I can’t think of a group more different than a group of metalheads than the Recording Academy. As far as a possible upset goes? How about “Degradation Rules,” which it turns out is about autoerotic asphyxiation. Shock sells, I guess!

Best Alternative Album

Cool It Down – Yeah Yeah Yeahs

Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe in You – Big Thief

Fossora – Björk

We – Arcade Fire

Wet Leg – Wet Leg

Will Win: Wet Leg 

Should Win: Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe in You

Upset Special: Cool It Down

This is far and away the best field I’m writing about in this column, and even then it’s sullied by the presence of We, a bad album by a once great band fronted by an apparently despicable man. Despite being past Album of the Year winners, I don’t expect Arcade Fire to come away with the award; Wet Leg are much more industry friendly at this point and have more nominations elsewhere. Cool It Down does as well, which could also make it a player. Dragon New Warm Mountain I Believe in You should win by virtue of being one of the best albums of the past year, and if you don’t think I mean it then you should read my one-sided declaration of war against the New York Times over their disrespect of Big Thief.

Best Alternative Performance

“Certainty” – Big Thief

“Chaise Lounge” – Wet Leg

“King” – Florence + the Machine

“Spitting Off the Edge of the World” – Yeah Yeah Yeahs feat. Perfume Genius

“There’d Better Be a Mirrorball” – Arctic Monkeys

Will Win: “Spitting Off the Edge of the World”

Should Win: “There’d Better Be a Mirrorball”

Upset Special: “Chaise Lounge”

Another strong category, and one that’s in its first year of existence to boot. I know I said Wet Leg would win the Alternative Album award, but “Chaise Lounge” feels like too slight a song to come home with a win here. The meatier “Spitting Off the Edge of the World” will probably take it instead, even though it should go to the louche, melancholy “There’d Better Be a Mirrorball.”