Let’s not sugar coat it – last years’ Academy Awards were a mess. Between the misguided fan voted “awards,” the insulting pre-taped segments, and the now infamous Slap, the Oscars didn’t just feel outdated and out of touch. They felt sloppy and unprofessional, a once proud institution reduced to a farce.  

But it’s 2023 now, and it’s a new day for The Academy, mostly because the powers that be seem content – at least for the moment – to make it feel like the old days. Gone are the inane fan voted honors for Oscars Fan Favorite and Oscars Cheer Moments. Gone are the pre-taped presentations of certain below the line awards. Gone, at least for the next ten years, is Will Smith.

Will a return to normalcy actually be enough to bring peace between the Academy and its broadcast partner ABC? Most of that depends on the ratings, which, despite seeing a slight rebound in 2022, have been declining since their peak in 1998, when the Oscars attracted 55.2 million viewers. If the show doesn’t attract a big enough audience, then ABC could begin to demand even more changes to the broadcast, or just straight up refuse to renew its contract with the Academy after it expires in 2028, leaving one of Hollywood’s oldest institutions without a home.

If there’s any reason to be optimistic, it ties back to 1998 as well. That year, Titanic, which smashed all kinds of box office records in its initial theatrical run, tied the biggest Academy record, winning an unsurpassed 11 awards (Ben-Hur was the first to accomplish this feat in 1960; The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, matched it in 2004). Could the seemingly inevitable dominance of Everything Everywhere All at Once, a much smaller hit but a hit nonetheless, encourage viewers to tune in?

Probably not, at least not at 1998 levels. The truth is, nothing will. Moviegoing simply isn’t as central to American culture the way it was in the late 90s (or even the mid-2000s), and the number of people who have seen Everything Everywhere All at Once is nowhere near the number that had seen Titanic. Even if blockbusters like Avatar: The Way of Water or Top Gun: Maverick were expected to win big, it probably wouldn’t make much of a difference either. Viewers simply have more options now, and most of them will opt for something other than a three hour plus show with multiple commercial interruptions honoring movies most of them have not seen.

Most observers center ABC when it comes to decision making surrounding the Oscars’ future, but If the ratings do flounder again this year, maybe it’ll inspire the Academy to explore some different options. The Screen Actors Guild Awards (SAGs) live streamed its awards on YouTube via Netflix, and will appear on the streaming partner starting in 2024. This year’s show pulled in fewer viewers than last year’s TNT and TBS broadcasts, but generated widely viewed content across its various social media channels. Could the Academy make something like this work with another streamer, or even broadcast the event themselves via YouTube or their website? As I mentioned, they’ll probably have to wait until 2028 to make such a drastic change – but as the films the Academy honors become more and more niche, and as the film distribution landscape continues to mutate, they may have no other choice.

But for this year, let’s rejoice in what has been, at least up until this point,been a good old fashioned Oscars season. And let’s pray that ABC and the Academy don’t overreact to the ratings, no matter how bad they might be.

The Predictions

Note: “N/A” in a “What Should Win” section indcates that I have not seen any of the nominees

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

Triangle of Sadness

Women Talking

What Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

What Should Win: The Fabelmans

Upset Special: The Fabelmans

After Everything Everywhere All at Once faltered at the Golden Globes at the BAFTAs, it seemed, if only for a moment, that this race would be competitive. But wins at the CCAs, PGAs, DGAs, and absolute domination at the SAGs have all but sewn up Best Picture for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s sci-fi family drama freakout; at this point, the only real question is how many other awards it’ll win on Sunday night. There’s still the tiniest sliver of hope that The Fabelmans, my personal favorite of the year, can pull off the upset, but don’t overthink it, this is EEAO’s award to lose. 

Best Director

Todd Field – Tár

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin

Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Ruben Östlund – Triangle of Sadness 

Who Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Who Should Win: Steven Spielberg

Upset Special: Steven Spielberg

While traditionally paired, Best Picture and Best Director have been won by different films at five of the last ten Oscars ceremonies – and in two of those cases (2018’s Green Book and 2022’s CODA), the Best Picture winner wasn’t even nominated for Best Director. I don’t expect such a split this year – Kwan and Scheinert won the Directors Guild of America award, and Everything Everywhere All at Once’s looming dominance should lift them in this category as well. If there is a split, then this award will go to Steven Spielberg for making his most personal and heartrending film to date, a win that would put him only one behind John Ford for the all-time number of Best Director wins.

Best Actor

Austin Butler – Elvis

Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Paul Mescal – Aftersun

Bill Nighy – Living

Who Will Win: Austin Butler

Who Should Win: Paul Mescal (or Colin Farrell)

Upset Special: Brendan Fraser

The Best Picture and Best Director races are turning into a bit of a bore, so thank god that three of the four acting categories have all of a sudden become interesting. Austin Butler’s metamorphic portrayal of the King of Rock and Roll is the kind of historical impersonation the modern Academy loves, but Brendan Fraser’s late win at the SAGs, and his enticing comeback story, make him a much more serious threat to win than he seemed even two weeks ago. If I had a vote, I’d give it to Paul Mescal for his naturalistic performance in Aftersun, which so defies the traditional notions of an “Oscar worthy” performance that I’m surprised it even got nominated. If I had a second vote, I’d give it to Mescal’s fellow Irishman Colin Farrell, who pulls off something many of our finest dramatic actors cannot: he’s funny (but in a sad, Irish way).

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett – Tár

Ana de Armas – Blonde 

Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie

Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans

Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Who Should Win: Cate Blanchett

Upset Special: Michelle Yeoh

Early on, this award looked like Blanchett’s to lose, but Michelle Yeoh’s win at the SAGs injected some new energy into her campaign, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Everything Everywhere All at Once ends up with long enough coattails to pull her over the line. The true wild card here is Andrea Riseborough, who wasn’t nominated at any other major awards ceremony and who’s very nomination prompted an Academy rules investigation. Will enough voters take a page out of Paul Schrader’s book and cast a vote for her, and least partly as a middle finger to all the controversy? Probably not, but if they do, log onto “Film Twitter” immediately if you want to see a bunch of people lose their mind.

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees of Inisherin

Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway

Judd Hirsch – The Fabelmans

Barry Keoghan – The Banshees of Inisherin

Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan

Who Should Win: Barry Keoghan

Upset Special: Barry Keoghan

This is the only acting race that feels truly in the bag. A Ke Huy Quan win here would make for a remarkable story, and given his past heartfelt speeches, probably be the highlight of the ceremony. I’m partial to Barry Keoghan’s funny, fidgety role in The Banshees of Inisherin (he won the BAFTA, making him the only other nominee with a chance to a win), but Quan’s career arc – from child actor to has been to likely Oscar winner – is the kind of thing that makes stupid awards shows like the Oscars worth watching.

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Hong Chau – The Whale

Kerry Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin

Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All at Once 

Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All at Once

Who Will Win: Kerry Condon

Who Should Win: Kerry Condon

Upset Special: Angela Bassett

Talk about a cluster. Early wins for Angela Bassett at the CCAs and Golden Globes made it seem like the ageless actress would finally win an elusive Oscar for her turn as Wakanda’s Queen Ramonda, but Kerry Condon’s win at the BAFTAs and Jamie Lee Curtis’ shocker at the SAGs have made reading the tea leaves in this race virtually impossible. My hunch is that it goes to Condon. The Banshees of Inisherin is the second most nominated movie of the night, and all of that enthusiasm has to go somewhere – and, for what it’s worth, she’d get my vote too for playing the only sensible character in a movie about senselessness. Truth be told, I’d be fine with any member of this field winning – with one exception. Everything Everywhere All at Once didn’t click for me, but I respect its craft and the performances.  But if Jamie Lee Curtis wins a lifetime achievement award over the four much more deserving nominees, I may throw something at my TV. Or at least write a mean tweet or something.

Best Original Screenplay 

The Banshees of Inisherin 

Everything Everywhere All at Once 

The Fabelmans

Tár

Triangle of Sadness

What Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once 

What Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin 

Upset Special: The Banshees of Inisherin

Fun fact: this is the first Oscars where all five nominees for Best Director are also nominated for Best Original Screenplay. I assume the universe hopping Everything Everywhere All at Once will win for keeping its absurd number of timelines in order, but I actually think the script, which grinds to a halt in the last two acts, is the film’s weak point. Instead, I’d go with The Banshees of Inisherin, a film not afraid to sit in ambiguity and, at the risk of repeating myself, be funny.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Living

Top Gun: Maverick

Woman Talking

What Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

What Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick (why not!)

Upset Special: Woman Talking

Like Best Supporting Actress, this is another fraught category, featuring only three Best Picture nominees (a non-Best Picture nominee hasn’t won either screenplay award since 2004’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind), one of which (Top Gun: Maverick) is better known for its stunts and effects than its writing. But you know what? It takes real talent to write a convincing sequel to a big budget Navy recruitment ad and make it feel poignant and relevant, two adjectives that I would argue describe Top Gun: Maverick. All Quiet on the Western Front, which cleaned up at the BAFTAs and has the exact opposite view of the military as Top Gun: Maverick, will most likely win instead. But don’t be surprised if Women Talking, which won the WGA (where All Quiet on the Western Front wasn’t nominated) wins this award as well.

Best Animated Film

Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Marcell the Shell with Shoes On

Puss and Boots: The Last Wish

The Sea Beast

Turning Red

What Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

What Should Win: Turning Red

Upset Special: Puss and Boots: The Last Wish

A stop motion animated film by a past Best Director winner about the rise of fascist Italy, you say? Shut up and take the Academy’s votes, Guillermo. While it’s hard to think of another possible winner, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish’s surprise critical success makes it the next most likely victor.Turning Red, a very funny and weird film that was unjustly shuttled off to Disney+ instead of getting a proper theatrical release, would get my vote in this category (and “Nobody Like U” would get my vote in Best Original Song).

Best International Feature Film

All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)

Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)

Close (Belgium)

EO (Poland)

The Quiet Girl (Ireland)

What Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

What Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Upset Special: Argentina, 1985

Thanks to the transitive property, All Quiet on the Western Front, the only one of these films to be nominated for Best Picture, should win this category. If the Academy does deem themselves worthy of violating basic logical and mathematical truths, however, they’ll probably give it to Argentina, 1985, which upset All Quiet on the Western Front at the Golden Globes.

Best Documentary Feature

All That Breathes

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

Fire of Love

A House Made of Splinters

Navalny

What Will Win: Navalny

What Should Win: N/A

Upset Special: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is probably the most acclaimed of these films, but Navalny, which won the CCA and BAFTA, is the only nominee about Vladimir Putin’s most prominent domestic political opponent, and given current events…well, you do the math. The fact that it’s also streaming on HBO Max doesn’t hurt its chances, either.

Best Original Score

All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon

The Banshees of Inisherin

Everything Everywhere All at Once

The Fabelmans

What Will Win: Babylon

What Should Win: Babylon

Upset Special: All Quiet on the Western Front

Babylon seemed like a Best Picture contender once upon a time, at least before people saw it and were exposed to way more bodily fluids than they were expecting. But no matter how polarizing Damen Chazelle’s hate letter to Hollywood is, Justin Hurwitz’s score has been universally praised, and should end up winning come Oscars night. But All Quiet on the Western Front is clearly popular among some voters, and its bursts of electronic noise (which are rare in a period piece) could be loud enough to attract some votes.

Best Original Song

“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman)

“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick)

“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)

“Naatu Naatu” (RRR)

“This Is a Life” – (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

What Will Win: “Naatu Naatu”

What Should Win: “Naatu Naatu”

Upset Special: “Hold My Hand”

Early on this awards season there was some hope that RRR, the most expensive Indian film ever made and a multi-continental hit, could snag a Best International Feature nomination and maybe even a spot on the Best Picture slate. Instead, the only award it was nominated for was Best Original Song, for the electrifying, suspender snapping “Naatu Naatu.” “Naatu Naatu” won at the Golden Globes, and it’ll probably win at the Oscars, too, but voters sure to love them some Lady Gaga, so a win for “Hold My Hand” wouldn’t be entirely unexpected

Best Sound

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Elvis

Top Gun: Maverick

What Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick

What Should Win: The Batman

Upset Special: All Quiet on the Western Front

Top Gun: Maverick is literally a movie about machines that create sonic booms and carry things that make big explosions, meaning its sound team is certainly very visible (err, audible), which is probably enough for them to get support from less technically inclined voters.With that being said, All Quiet on the Western Front’s visceral recreation of the sounds of trench warfare could pull off an upset. Both films are certainly deserving, but c’mon – who doesn’t love the noisy Batmobile scene from The Batman?

Best Production Design 

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

Babylon

Elvis

The Fablemans

What Will Win: Babylon

What Should Win: Babylon

What Could Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

As I mentioned when writing about Best Original Score, Babylon is a clearly polarizing film that a good chunk of the Academy couldn’t get on board with. But its recreation of late Silent Era Hollywood could (and should) be enough to get it a win for Production Design. Avatar: The Way of Water could also win for its objectively beautiful ocean scenery, but I do wonder if some more traditional Academy voters will withhold their support given that it’s all computer generated, and not taking place on built sets.

Best Cinematography 

All Quiet on the Western Front

Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

Elvis

Empire of Light

Tár

What Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

What Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front

Upset Special: Elvis

Mandy Walker won the American Society of Cinematography award for Elvis, which tends to be a decent if not surefire indicator of who ends up with the cinematography Oscar. Walker, who was the first woman to win the theatrical film award at ASCs, would become the first woman to win a cinematography Oscar as well, and could find herself doing just that for her work on Baz Luhrmann’s chaotic but lavish film. But I’m putting my money on James Friend and All Quiet on the Western Front. Friend wasn’t nominated at the ASCs, but it’s worth noting that the ASC is an American guild, and it wouldn’t be wise to underestimate All Quiet on the Western Front’s popularity with European voters. It helps that Friend’s cinematography is really, really good, too.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

All Quiet on the Western Front

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

The Whale

What Will Win: Elvis

What Should Win: The Batman

Upset Special: The Whale

My assumption is that most voters will think to themselves “gee, they really made that guy who isn’t Elvis look like Elvis” and tick the box for, well, Elvis. If I’m wrong, it’s probably because they went “gee, they really made that guy who isn’t morbidly obese look morbidly obese” and vote for The Whale instead. I, myself, saw The Batman and went “gee, they really made Colin Farrell look like he’s not Colin Farrell,” so I would probably vote for The Batman.

Best Costume Design

Babylon

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

What Will Win: Elvis

What Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Upset Special: Everything Everywhere All at Once

When in doubt, go with the period piece, and when in further doubt, go with the period piece nominated for Best Picture, which is a drawn out way of saying Elvis will probably win this award for faithfully recreating the King’s iconic wardrobe. But if Everything Everywhere All at Once has some coattails, costume designer Shirley Kurata could wind up going home with an Oscar instead. 

Best Film Editing

The Banshees of Inisherin

Elvis

Everything Everywhere All at Once

Tár

Top Gun: Maverick

What Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

What Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Upset Special: Top Gun: Maverick

If there’s one way to make the invisible art of editing visible, it’s having your film juggle multiple storylines and universes like Everything Everywhere All at Once does. Despite my lukewarm feelings for the film, it’s tough to deny that Paul Rogers was given a tough task and came through. If anything beats it, it’ll be Top Gun: Maverick, the other action movie in the field.

Best Visual Effects

All Quiet on the Western Front

Avatar: The Way of Water

The Batman

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Top Gun: Maverick

What Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

What Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water

Upset Special: Top Gun: Maverick

Do I think James Cameron’s script for Avatar: The Way of Water, white dreadlocked wild child and all, is kind of embarrassing? Yes. Do I think that its dazzlingly lifelike recreation of water is worth the price of admission alone? Yes. Do I think Top Gun: Maverick has a serious chance of beating it for this award? No, but I needed to pick something as a possible upset.

Best Live Action Short Film

An Irish Goodbye

Ivalu

Le pupille

Night Ride

The Red Suitcase

What Will Win: An Irish Goodbye

What Should Win: N/A

Upset Special: Night Ride

I haven’t watched any of these, but given the heavy Irish presence elsewhere at this year’s Oscars, I’ll go with An Irish Goodbye as the winner. And given its timely tackling of trans issues, let’s go with Night Ride as the upset.

Best Documentary Short Subject

 The Elephant Whisperers

Haulout

How Do You Measure a Year?

The Martha Mitchell Effect

Stranger at the Gate

What Will Win: Stranger at the Gate

What Should Win: Stranger at the Gate (the only one I’ve seen)

Upset Special: Haulout

The only one of these shorts that I’ve seen is Stranger at the Gate, and while it’s subject matter (an Islamaphobic Marine who plans to bomb a mosque is taken in by the local Muslim community and eventually converts) seems tailor made for an Oscar winner, the filmmaking leaves a little to be desired. Haulout, about a Russian scientist studying climate change, seems like it could also win.

Best Animated Short Film

The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

The Flying Sailor

Ice Merchants

My Year of Dicks

An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It

What Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

What Should Win: N/A

Upset Special: My Year of Dicks

I haven’t watched any of these either, but I did see a for-your-consideration ad for The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse on ABC (the broadcast home of the 95th Academy Awards) and I have to imagine any short with that kind of campaign money will probably end up with the win. That said, which of these titles are you, and Academy voters, going to remember the most, and which would be the funniest to hear an Oscar presenter say out loud? My Year of Dicks is your upset pick for exactly those reasons