The first time I ever wrote about the Grammys was when I was in high school, when I had a dinky little Blogger site that has apparently been wiped from the Internet. The year was 2011, and it would turn out to be a watershed: Arcade Fire’s The Suburbs unexpectedly won Album of the Year, becoming the first indie rock album to do so in Grammys history. I remember not only predicting the awards like I do now, but also writing a recap post where I discussed how, against all odds, the Grammys were actually good for a change. It’s probably the last time I ever felt that way about the Grammys, which I have long railed against as an outdated, intellectually incurious institution that’s out of step with not just trendsetting critics such as myself but the average listener as well. It’s a fun column to write every year because, unless I’m writing about The Curious Case of Natalia Grace, I so rarely allow myself to give into my hate. Instead, I always strive for nuance, which just so happens to be one of the things that differentiates me from the Recording Academy. If they won’t respect themselves or listeners, then I won’t respect them. 

But this year, I have a bit of a confession to make: the 66th Annual Grammy Awards aren’t exactly shaping up to be good, but they do have the potential to be less bad. I go into it in more detail in my predictions, but the Recording Academy’s choices for Album of the Year are mostly respectable, featuring a slate of young and relevant artists that people genuinely seem to care about. Sure, I have my qualms with former Album of the Year winner Jon Batiste (who seems very nice) and stylistic dilettante Miley Cyrus being nominated for the night’s top prize, but on the whole, it’s hard to argue that Olivia Rodrigo, Janelle Moná, Taylor Swift, SZA, Lana Del Rey, and boygenius didn’t matter in some way shape or form in 2023. 

It’s that last nominee that heartens me the most this year. I’ve written about my issues with the record, a perfectly fine album created by artists who I think are capable of much more, in this venue before. But as someone who’s also written about how they want rock music to matter to the mainstream again, it would be hypocritical of me to begrudge their nominations for both Album and Record of the Year. It is unquestionably cool that they’ll be able to introduce themselves to a new audience, even if they may not exactly need the exposure: they’ve already appeared on Saturday Night Live this past season and sold out Madison Square Garden, to say nothing of Phoebe Bridgers’ stint opening for Taylor Swift on the now-canonized Eras Tour. I might be a little tired of them, but the world clearly isn’t, and watching someone you saw play an 800-cap venue in Washington, DC get what could be a starring role on music’s biggest night can’t help but warm the soul. 

It also made me think, in a weird way, of Pitchfork, the legendary music site that was recently folded into GQ and experienced a brutal round of layoffs in the process. For years, Pitchfork, which was founded in Ryan Schreiber’s Chicago basement in 1996, was viewed by some uninformed fans as excessively snarky and elitist, a collection of critics who couldn’t hear a simple rap song without overintellectualizing or degrading it. But while many people will remember Pitchfork once wilding the power to destroy a band’s career with one review, I also thought of them as great builders of the pop music canon who weren’t afraid to present Justin Timberlake’s “My Love” as equally as accomplished as The Rapture’s “House of Jealous Lovers.” Granted, it took them a while to get to that point, and they’ve certainly overcorrected in a too poptimistic direction, but at least for me, they were bridge builders who embraced the idea that the same outlet could publish a review of Taylor Swift’s most recent record alongside a profile of Alvvays. In other words, they weren’t afraid to jumble apples and oranges together, something that the Recording Academy, with all of its blindspots and biases, has done too little of in recent years. Pitchfork existed because not enough mainstream music publications were shining a light on the underground corners of the industry where the truly innovative work was happening. I don’t expect the Grammys to ever replicate their taste, but the idea that a publication or an awards show could help introduce worthy artists to a larger audience, instead of merely reinforcing the status quo, is one that the Recording Academy should seriously consider if they want to ever become more than the punchline they currently are.

But first we have to deal with this year’s nominees and potential winners, which you can find below. Will I finally get some of these picks right, or will my multi-year streak of seriously misjudging what the fickle, unpredictable Recording Academy deems worthy hold up? Read on, and tune into the show on Sunday, to find out.

Album of the Year 

The Age of Pleasure – Janelle Monáe

Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd – Lana Del Rey

Endless Summer Vacation – Miley Cyrus

GUTS – Olivia Rodrigo

Midnights – Taylor Swift

the record – boygenius

SOS – SZA

World Music Radio – Jon Batiste

Will Win: Midnights

Should Win: Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd

Upset Special: World Music Radio

Grading on the massive curve one must always apply to the Grammys, this isn’t an awful Album of the Year slate. It only includes one album I had never heard of before nominations were announced (Jon Batiste’s World Music Radio, which, from the few songs I’ve heard from it, seems just as cloying Batiste’s previous AOTY winner We Are), only one album I’m convinced no one has listened to all the way through (Endless Summer Vacation, which may have hit number 3 on the Billboard Hot 200 but feels like it had a negligible cultural impact), and, most importantly, doesn’t include any artists who feel washed up (remember when ABBA was nominated last year?). Instead, these are all artists in their prime who (mostly) released buzzed about music that people care about.

My guess is that the Grammys will reward Taylor Swift, who, along with Beyonce, dominates the music industry the way the United States and the USSR dominated global affairs in the latter half of the 20th Century (albeit with less nuclear tension and fewer proxy wars). A win would give her a record-breaking fourth Album of the Year award (Fearless, 1989, and folklore being her previous winners), breaking the tie she’s currently in with legends Frank Sinatra, Paul Simon, and Stevie Wonder. That said, Batiste is the only other past winner here, and his jazz background and general industry friendliness could make him tough for voters to resist. If I were casting a ballot, I’d be squeezing in the excessively titled Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd, the only nominee to make my personal end of the year list and Lana Del Rey’s best album since the also-nominated Norman Fucking Rockwell! 

Record of the Year

“Anti-Hero” – Taylor Swift 

“Flowers” – Miley Cyrus 

“Kill Bill” – SZA

“Not Strong Enough” – boygenius

“On My Mama” – Victoria Monét

“Vampire” – Olivia Rodrigo

“What Was I Made For?” – Billie Eilish

“Worship” – Jon Batiste

What Will Win: “Anti-Hero”

What Should Win: “On My Mama” 

Upset Special: “Worship”

In the late 2010s, the Grammy found themselves prone to handing out general category sweeps, awarding all three non-Best New Artist general categories to the same performers in 2017 (Bruno Mars), 2018 (Adele), and 2020 (Billie Eilish, who did also win Best New Artist). I don’t think Jon Batiste, Miley Cyrus, Taylor Swift, or SZA will pull off the same feat on Sunday, but I do think Taylor Swift will win Record of the Year for her chilly and memeable “Anti-Hero,” probably the most popular of the nominated songs and one that even I, a Midnights skeptic, must admit to warming up to over the course of 2023. Given that this is a production and performance award, I would not be shocked if Jon Batiste’s “Worship” won instead – I don’t think it’s the best produced record on this list, but it is certainly the most produced (read: incredibly busy, a little messy, but inarguably flashy). While I would be plenty pleased if “Not Strong Enough,” a song that wound up on my end of year list, won this award, I would personally vote for “On My Mama,” whose luxe full band arrangement helped the record stand out in a world of stale, artificial sounding pop.

Song of the Year

“A&W” – Lana Del Rey

“Anti-Hero” – Taylor Swift

“Butterfly” – Jon Batiste 

“Dance the Night” – Dua Lipa

“Flowers” – Miley Cyrus

“Kill Bill” – SZA 

“Vampire” – Olivia Rodrigo

“What Was I Made For?” – Billie Eilish

What Will Win: “What Was I Made For?” 

What Should Win: “A&W”

Upset Special: “Anti-Hero”

Before listening to it again in preparation for this article, I had felt that “What Was I Made For?” was a typical Billie Eilish ballad – slow, morose, and a distraction from the devilish electropop that made her so exciting when she first burst onto the scene. And while it is indeed slow and morose and may temporarily occupy her from writing the next “bad guy,” it’s also an excellent piece of songwriting (to say nothing of Eilish’s vocals and Finneas O’Connell’s production) that would make a worthy winner for this award. Given Eilish and O’Connell’s popularity within the music industry and with awards voters of all mediums (not to mention its association with the biggest movie of the year), I expect it to win the award, although one should never count out Taylor Swift when it comes time to hand out the golden gramophones. I would vote for “A&W,” which wound up all the way at number 3 of my end of the year list, a true epic that both reinforces and demystifies the Lana Del Rey character while paying tribute to the music that made her existence possible.

Best New Artist

Gracie Abrams

Fred Again

Ice Spice

Jelly Roll

Coco Jones

Noah Kahan

Victoria Monét

The War and Treaty

Who Will Win: Victoria Monét

Who Should Win: Victoria Monét

Upset Special: The War and Treaty

This is a pretty stacked field, even if the Grammys’ problem of nominating artists who have been around for nearly a decade (see Victoria Monét and The War and Treaty) persists. There are a lot of ways the vote could split here – Ice Spice and Jelly Roll are both legitimate phenomena in their respective genres, and Noah Kahan has taken over what used to be called adult alternative radio – but I think they’ll eventually settle on Monét, given her nominations for Song and Record of the Year and her modern sounding but traditionally made brand of R&B. But I also wouldn’t count out The War and Treaty, whose nostalgic blend of gospel, soul, and country could easily appeal to the old fogeys at the Recording Academy and help them transcend genre lines. 

Best Rock Album 

72 Seasons – Metallica

But Here We Are – Foo Fighters

In Times New Roman… – Queens of the Stone Age

Starcatcher – Greta Van Fleet 

This Is Why – Paramore

What Will Win: But Here We Are

What Should Win: This Is Why (I guess? This is a really bad slate)

Upset Special: 72 Seasons

This is an incredibly pathetic list of albums, composed of three over the hill acts (Metallica, Foo Fighters, and – I’m sorry to report – my beloved Queens of the Stone Age), a glorified tribute band (Greta Van Fleet, who have never disguised the fact that they are trying to sound as much like Led Zeppelin as possible) and one band that I’ve always been a little lukewarm about but that people my age have for some reason decided is a defining act of our generation (Paramore). My guess is that the Academy will give this award to the Foo Fighters, who currently hold the record for wins in this category with five, and who a lot of music industry people seem to think are the only rock band that still exists. If I were forced, at gunpoint, to cast a vote for one group in this shame of a slate, I suppose it would be for Paramore, who have at least experimented with their sound in recent years as opposed to slipping into lazy, contented middle age like most of the other groups listed here. In years past, I’ve written longer, angrier screeds about the way the Grammys treat rock music, but the worst part about this year is I can’t even ginny up the rage – this list of records inspires nothing but apathy, which is even worse than disgust. 

Best Rock Performance 

“Lux Æterna” – Metallica

“More Than a Love Song” – Black Pumas

“Not Strong Enough” – boygenius

“Rescued” – Foo Fighters

“Sculptures of Anything Goes” – Arctic Monkeys 

What Will Win: “Not Strong Enough” 

What Should Win: “Not Strong Enough” 

Upset Special: “Rescued”

This is another weak field, one that should provide a glide path to “Not Strong Enough,” which is not only a great (if overplayed) song but also nominated for Record of the Year. Never underestimate the Grammys’ capacity to disappoint us, though, and never underestimate their affection for Foo Fighters, who could easily win here as well.

Best Rock Song 

“Angry” – The Rolling Stones

“ballad of a homeschooled girl” – Olivia Rodrigo

“Emotion Sickness” – Queens of the Stone Age 

“Not Strong Enough” – boygenius 

“Rescued” – Foo Fighters

What Will Win: “Angry”

What Should Win: “Not Strong Enough” 

Upset Special: “Not Strong Enough”

Logic would state that if “Not Strong Enough” is nominated for Record of the Year, and if I think it’s going to win Best Rock Performance, then it should probably win this award too – but these are the Grammys, and logic has never explained much of what they do. My guess is that the Academy will give this award to “Angry,” because it’ll give them an opportunity to get the greatest rock band of all time on stage, and because it isn’t every year that a band full of 80-year-olds release a song that is actually good. “Not Strong Enough” shouldn’t be counted out entirely, though, and while it’s the track I would vote for, I can’t say that I’d be too upset if “ballad of a homeschooled girl,” the best straight up rock track on GUTS, got the nod. 

Best Metal Performance 

“72 Seasons” – Metallica

“Bad Man” – Disturbed

“Hive Mind” – Slipknot

“Jaded” – Spiritbox

“Phantom of the Opera” – Ghost 

What Will Win: “72 Seasons”

What Should Win: “72 Seasons” (I guess?)

Upset Special: “Phantom of the Opera”

As I always say when I write about this category, I stopped seriously paying attention to metal in high school, so it’s probably a bad sign for the relevance of these nominees that I recognize four of them. None of these songs are good, exactly, but “72 Seasons” is the least bad, especially when James Hetfield isn’t singing, so I’ll throw my support behind that and pick it to win. But people love Ghost for some inexplicable reason, so I wouldn’t be shocked if they won their second Grammy on Sunday either.

Best Alternative Music Album

The Car – Arctic Monkeys

Cracker Island – Gorillaz

Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd – Lana Del Rey

I Inside the Old Year Dying – PJ Harvey

the record – boygenius

What Will Win: the record

What Should Win: Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd

Upset Special: Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd

Even though Did you know that there’s a tunnel under Ocean Blvd also has lots of nominations, it’s pretty tough to see this award not going to the record given its clear popularity among voters and its status as the most traditional sounding record in this category. I’ve written about my disappointment with that album, and gotten my fair share of (good natured) shit for it, so I’ll just reiterate here that I think it never reaches the full potential of its three songwriters and has, in fact, resulted in their subsequent overexposure. But as someone who’s been pining for rock music to be more relevant in mainstream eyes for virtually my entire life, I guess I can’t complain too much, even if I think Lana Del Rey put out the more deserving release. 

Best Alternative Music Performance 

“A&W” – Lana Del Rey 

“Body Paint” – Arctic Monkeys

“Belinda Says” – Alvvays 

“Cool About It” – boygenius 

“This Is Why” – Paramore

What Will Win: “A&W” 

What Should Win: “Belinda Says” 

Upset Special: “Cool About It”

Another Lana Del Rey and boygenius matchup here, but I get the feeling Del Rey will come out on top this time, if only because “A&W” is also nominated for Song of the Year. Considering I think it should win that award and that it ranked so highly in my own end of the year list, I’m sure there is some mathematical rule that states that I should give it this award too. But what that rule would ignore is that it would be very cool for Alvvays to win a Grammy, and that “Belinda Says” is a great song, and therefore Molly Rankin and company should win this award instead.