The Postrider’s 98th Academy Awards Preview

In an episode of The Postrider Roundup that may or may not have been released by the time you read this, Politics Editor Lars Emerson and I discuss how we’ve entered a “post-policy” era of politics where “vibes” now reign supreme – in other words, it feels like it doesn’t really matter what candidates are proposing to do once they’re in office anymore. All that matters is how they make voters feel. The idea that we live in a society governed by feeling and not evidence is not a particularly new one – it harkens back at least as far as the infamous “reality-based community” jab thrown out by some anonymous Bush official (totally not Karl Rove, *wink* *wink*) regarding America’s place in the world and its ability to “create [its] own reality” – but as the 20th century slips out of living memory for Americans of voting age, our inability to place anything in perspective and rely on emotion over fact has only intensified. Crime might be lower than it ever was in the ‘80s and ‘90s, but it feels like things are out of hand because I saw a few too many homeless people on the subway one day. The rate of inflation may technically be slowing (or at least it was before the war in Iran), but things feel more expensive than they ever were because Millennials and Gen Z grew up in an area of zero interest rates and pandemic-depressed prices. Fewer Americans are self-identifying as religious than ever before, but because a couple of 20-something trad Catholics have a big, algorithm assisted platform, it feels like we might be on the precipice of a Third Great Awakening.

This same logic, it seems, can now be applied to this year’s Oscars race. In many ways, this has always been the case – making predictions during awards season is an art, not a science, because it involves reading the tea leaves of a bunch of smaller awards shows put on by groups that do not have a one to one overlap with the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ membership, but just enough that they may be influential. This means that precedent can be a helpful guide until it isn’t. As Richard Nixon and Donald Trump can both tell you, just because most candidates who win Ohio and Florida become president doesn’t mean that all of them do (well, Trump would never fess up to that, but you get my point).

One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson’s sprawling epic about fatherhood, revolution, and living under the eye of an authoritarian state (a potent mix that truly captures the zeitgeist), has put together one of the most impressive “packages” of any Oscar contender in recent memory. It won top prizes at the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Producer’s Guild Awards, to say nothing of its victories among smaller bodies like the Directors’ Guild, Writers’ Guild, American Cinema Editors, Costume Designers, and a litany of critics’s groups. And yet, its victory at the Oscars doesn’t feel inevitable. When nominations were announced in January, Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s genre-bending gangster movie/musical/vampire story, seemed to take some of the air out of the OBAA balloon by setting a record with 16 nods, the most ever received by a single film. That sense of momentum only intensified at the Actors’ Awards (formerly known as SAG) where the film, as expected, won Best Ensemble (the closest thing that show has to a Best Picture equivalent) and Michael B. Jordan pulled off an upset for Best Actor. There are plenty of reasons to believe that these late wins won’t be predictive – Best Ensemble has only correlated with Best Picture five out of the last ten years, and the expected Best Actor frontrunner, Timothee Chalamet, would have become the first repeat award winner in the bodies history if he took home the trophy for Marty Supreme. But perception could become reality. Oscar voting was still open when Sinners had its big triumphant moment two Sundays ago, and a, shall we say vibe, may have swept up those Academy members who had yet to cast their ballots.

While I am of the belief that One Battle After Another is far and away the best movie in the field and should win running away, I do think the fact that Best Picture and five of the six big categories (Picture, Director, and the acting awards) are far from a sure thing is good for the Oscars. A world in which everyone agrees, in which one person gets the same award from 20 different constituencies over the course of three months, is boring, even if such unanimity may feel “correct.” After all, this is art we’re talking about. There are no “shoulds,” no objective truths. If any aspect of our lives deserves to be overtaken by vibes, to fall under the sway of our subjective perceptions, to remain insulated from objective reality, it’s this one.

With that being said, read on to find out who will and should win on Sunday night. Please note that “N/A” simply indicates that I have not seen enough of the nominees to make an informed “Should Win” choice.

Best Picture

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Trains Dreams

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Upset Special: Sinners

For months, it seemed like One Battle After Another had this thing wrapped up thanks to big precursor wins at the Golden Globes, BAFTAs, PGAs, and DGAs. But when Sinners broke the nominations record a true challenger emerged, a sense only buoyed by Michael B. Jordan’s upset win at the Actor Awards and the movie’s subsequent win for Best Ensemble. The pop that both Jordan and the movie as a whole got in the room have a lot of people thinking that Sinners has the momentum, especially given that the Actor Awards were broadcast while Oscar voting was still underway. Does it have a shot? Sure, but the truth is that OBAA’s package of pre-Oscars victories combined with the Actros’ dismal record of predicting Best Picture winners make it the safest bet on Sunday night. But if Sinners ends up wracking up some big wins in earlier categories, Paul Thomas Anderson and company will certainly be sweating it out.

In a just world, they wouldn’t have to – I like Sinners and most of the other movies nominated here (Hamnet and Frankenstein are the only ones in the pack I truly did not care for), but One Battle After Another is head and shoulders above the competition, and deserves this award more so than probably any other movie to come out in the last ten years, if only because it so perfectly captures our frantic, paranoid moment in history.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another

Ryan Coogler – Sinners

Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao – Hamnet

Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson

Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderosn

Upset Special: Ryan Coolger

Much like with Best Picture, the late-momentum picked up by Sinners has some observers thinking that Ryan Coogler could pull off an upset win over Paul Thomas Anderson, who not only directed the Best Picture favorite, but is also a now-legendary filmmaker with a stable of classics that have yet to be rewarded by the Academy – in other words, the perfect profile of a winner. Given the way he’s cleaned up in precursor awards, I expect him to pull through on Oscar night as well, even if Sinners does end up taking Best Picture. Considering the scope and scale of One Battle After Another and its alternatingly funny and horrifying tone, he deserves it, too.

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another

Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Michael B. Jordan – Sinners

Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent

Will Win: Michael B. Jordan

Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio

Upset Special: Timothee Chalamet

One of the refreshing things about this year’s Oscars race is that, for the first time in a very, very, long time, three of the four acting categories feel like a crapshoot. It all starts with Best Actor, in which three of the five nominees have won major precursors: Chalamet and Moura both won Golden Globes and Jordan pulled off the dark horse Actors win. The fact that the BAFTA went to Robert Aramayo for I Swear – a movie that hasn’t even been released in the United States yet – only muddies the picture further.

I don’t have a lot of great reasons for it, but I think Jordan could pull off another win on Sunday night. There’s clearly a lot of enthusiasm for Sinners and if the Academy decides to reward One Battle After Another in both Picture and Director, I could see them honoring the film with a win here. Chalamet would be my second bet, but the Academy’s reluctance to reward young actors and the mixed reception to his Oscar campaigning (a reception that’s completely unjustified, I should add – God forbid the guy have some fun) could wind up dragging him down. If I had a vote, it’d go to DiCaprio – a typically intense, youth-obsessed performer who explores middle-age with humor and sorrow in One Battle After Another, unlocking a part of his range that I’m not sure I’ve ever seen before.

Best Actress

Jessie Buckley – Hamnet

Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue

Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value

Emma Stone – Bugonia

Will Win: Jessie Buckley

Should Win: Rose Byrne

Upset Special: Emma Stone

If any category this year is a done deal, it’s Best Actress. Jessie Buckley has been virtually undefeated for every major precursor award, and the role itself – William Shakespeare’s grieving wife – is Oscar bait in the truest sense. For as delightful as it would be to see an Irishwoman win an Oscar for playing an English icon, I’d personally cast my vote for Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, whose face not only takes up a healthy portion of the frame for much of the film’s runtime but who is forced to try and elicit sympathy, frustration, disgust, and horror from the audience simultaneously, and somehow pulls it off. If you really want advice on a contrarian bet, I guess you could go with Emma Stone, whose two Oscar wins point to some true affection from the Academy, but your money is best spent elsewhere.

Best Supporting Actor

Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo – Sinners

Sean Penn – One Battle After Another

Stellen Skarsgard – Sentimental Value

Will Win: Sean Penn

Should Win: Sean Penn

Upset Special: Stellen Skarsgard

Talk about a category that’s swung around – Sean Penn’s intense, coiled performance as Colonel Steven J. Lockjaw seemed like a lock for a win when One Battle After Another first came out, but some early wins like the National Film Critics Association Award wins for Benicio del Toro made it look like he might end up stealing his co-star’s thunder. A Golden Globe win for Stellen Skarsgard added another contender in the mix, but back to back wins at the BAFTAs and the Actors make Penn the clear favorite now (a win would make Penn only the fourth male actor, after Walter Brennan, Jack Nicholson, and Daniel Day-Lewis, to win three Oscars). He deserves it for his straight-faced-yet-absurd performance, but Skarsgard’s status as an older, unrecognized international film legend could end up tipping the scales in his favor.

Best Supporting Actress

Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value

Amy Madigan – Weapons

Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners

Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another

Will Win: Amy Madigan

Should Win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Upset Special: Teyana Taylor

This is another category that’s been all over the place: Teyana Taylor seemed like she may cruise to a win after winning the Golden Globe, but then Wunmi Mosaku won at BAFTAs and Amy Madigan took home an Actor (the award, and, presumably, her husband Ed Harris). Mosaku’s status as a Brit makes me skeptical that her BAFTA win means much here; Madigan’s status as a veteran actor who’s never been recognized by the Oscars makes me think she could end up winning, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Taylor come through if it ends up being a big night for One Battle After Another. I personally would vote for Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, who has the tough job of trying to be a stable, subtle go-between between two other characters/actors who are more outwardly “going through it,” as the kids say, in Sentimental Value.

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Moon

It Was Just an Accident

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Will Win: Sinners

Should Win: Sinners

Upset Special: Marty Supreme

Sinners’ victory at the WGAs and its status as one of two true Best Picture contenders makes it a virtual lock for this award. And you know what? The fact that it’s a mashup of about five different genres (gangster, horror, musical, drama) that makes a hard pivot halfway through and doesn’t feel like a total mess makes it a deserving winner. In any other year, Marty Supreme would feel like the kind of cool movie that has to settle for a screenplay award only to be feted by the next generation of filmmakers, but, like most other movies this year, it’s set to be eclipsed by one of the two big boys.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Train Dreams

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Upset Special: Hamnet

Swap out the words “original” and “Sinners” in the last entry with “adapted” and “One Battle After Another” in this one and you get the picture. In the one-in-a-million universes where Hamnet pulls off the upset of the ages in Best Picture, it probably wins this award too. But I strongly suspect we are living in one of the 999,999 other universes.

Best Animated Feature

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amelie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2

Will Win: KPop Demon Hunters

Should Win: N/A

Upset Special: Zootopia 2

I have never seen KPop Demon Hunters, but I do work with kids, so in some ways, I have in fact seen KPop Demon Hunters. One interesting sociological thing I picked up on? Despite being centered on female characters, boys seem pretty into it too! We’ve come a long way from Black Widow’s exclusion on Avengers lunch boxes.

Anyway, its ubiquity and status as a genuine, non-IP based hit makes KPop Demon Hunters the slam dunk choice here. Of the field, I’ve only seen Zootopia 2, which I thought was a little disappointing, but considering that it’s the sequel to a past Oscar winner, it has an outside shot of winning here too.

Best International Feature

It Was Just an Accident (France)

The Secret Agent (Brazil)

Sentimental Value (Norway)

Sirat (Spain)

The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)

Will Win: Sentimental Value

Should Win: The Secret Agent

Upset Special: The Secret Agent

For the second year in a row, the Academy has managed to make what’s a typically chalk category interesting by nominating two foreign films for Best Picture. Considering that it has more nominations overall, my inclination is to predict Norway’s Sentimental Value as the winner (as if that country needed more gold this year) but the general fervor of Brazilian film fans certainly makes The Secret Agent a threat. Of the two, I prefer Kleber Mendonça Filho’s surreal, languid take on life under an authoritarian regime as opposed to Joachim Trier’s complex psychological portrait of sad Nordic people, but both are perfectly deserving.

Best Documentary Feature

The Alabama Solution

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting Through Rocks

Mr. Nobody Against Putin

The Perfect Neighbor

Will Win: Cutting Through Rocks

Should Win: N/A

Upset Special: Mr. Nobody Against Putin

Like a lot of other years, picking the Best Documentary winner this go around feels like playing a game of “which controversial topic will be at the top of voters’ minds.” Will it be cancer (Come See Me in the Good Light), the prison system (The Alabama Solution), women’s rights (Cutting Through Rocks), the war in Ukraine (Mr. Nobody Against Putin), or Florida’s stand your ground laws (The Perfect Neighbor)? Considering that voting took place as things were ramping up in the Middle East, my guess is that Cutting Through Rocks, which is about a female politician in Iran trying to expand opportunities for girls in her conservative village, will end up winning. It also doesn’t have some of the baggage that Mr. Nobody Against Putin and The Perfect Neighbor have (if you want to learn more about that, I suggest listening to this episode of The Big Picture), so that probably helps its chances as well.

Best Documentary Short

All the Empty Rooms

Armed with Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud

Children No More: “Were and Are Gone”

The Devil Is Busy

Perfectly a Strangeness

Will Win: Armed with Only a Camera

Should Win: N/A

Upset Special: Children No More

Another topicality-off, this time between school shootings (All the Empty Rooms), war reporting (Armed with Only a Camera), the Israeli protests against the war in Gaza (Children No More), abortion rights (The Devil is Busy), and… donkeys wandering around an abandoned observatory (Perfectly a Strangeness). My bet is that the Academy will reward the film that centers the reporter/filmmaker (Armed with Only a Camera), but Hollywood liberals do love stories about protest, which could give Children No More an edge.

Best Live Action Short

Butcher’s Stain

A Friend of Dorothy

Jane Austen’s Period Drama

The Singers

Two People Exchanging Saliva

Will Win: The Singers

Should Win: N/A

Upset Special: A Friend of Dorothy

I haven’t seen any of these movies, but I did “see” that The Singers is on Netflix, and that they’re pushing it on their main page, which makes me think that it’ll probably be the most viewed of these movies and, by extension, the one that gets the most votes. By that logic, Two People Exchanging Saliva, which was distributed by The New Yorker, should maybe be my upset pick, but instead I’m going with A Friend of Dorothy, which, thanks to starring roles from Miriam Margolyes and Stephen Fry, has the most famous cast by a mile, and could find a disproportionate amount of support among British voters.

Best Animated Short

Butterfly

Forevergreen

The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Retirement Plan

The Three Sisters

Will Win: Forevergreen

Should Win: N/A

Upset Special: The Girl Who Cried Pearls

Again, I have not seen any of the shorts, but reading a quick description of them reveals that Forevergreen is about an abandoned bear cub and a forest fire, so maybe that’ll tug at voters’ heartstrings and wind up winning as a result. The stop-motion Girl Who Cried Pearls sounds like the biggest technical achievement, so maybe that will get a lot of support from the animators voting. Come back next year for some more trenchant analysis of the art of short films!

Best Original Score

Bugonia

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Will Win: Sinners

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Upset Special: One Battle After Another

The general consensus seems to be that Ludwig Goransson will win his third Oscar (he previously won for Black Panther and Oppenheimer) for his work on his buddy Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, and considering that it’s a movie about music that integrates a bunch of disparate styles and eras into its soundtrack, that makes sense. None of the nominees here truly bowled me over, but if I were voting, I’d throw a bone to One Battle After Another’s Jonny Greenwood. He’s written better scores for PTA in the past (There Will Be Blood, Inherent Vice, and Phantom Thread stand out) but the hand-wrining piano of OBBA, which brings to mind the paranoia thrillers of the 70s, is tense and propulsive, and plays a big role in creating the familiar yet heightened atmosphere that makes the film such a success.

Best Original Song

“Dear Me” – Diane Warren: Relentless

“Golden” – KPop Demon Hunters

“I Lied to You” – Sinners

“Sweet Dreams of Joy” – Viva Verdi!

“Train Dreams” – Train Dreams

Will Win: “Golden”

Should Win: “I Lied to You”

Upset Special: “I Lied to You”

A true milestone for this category: usually only one song from a movie I’m sure doesn’t exist is nominated (who can forget such classics as The Life Ahead, Four Good Days, and Tell It Like a Woman), and that song is almost always written by Diane Warren. This year, that phantom Warren song is, ironically (appropriately?) from a documentary about her, but it will also be competing with another song from a movie I’m sure doesn’t exist, the opera doc Viva Verdi! Unfortunately for both Diane Warren and the opera lovers of the world, this award will almost certainly go to “Golden,” and it’s hard to argue that it’s not deserving – in addition to being incredibly catchy, it became a genuine pop hit, not something a lot of movies are able to produce anymore. Given my genre biases, I’d probably go with “I Lied to You,” a swaggering blues track that never feels like mere facsimile, and could see it winning if Sinners goes absolutely nuts on Sunday night. But the most likely outcome remains that “Golden” will live up to its name.

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Will Win: One Battle After Another

Should Win: One Battle After Another

Upset Special: F1

For years, the conventional wisdom was that Best Editing typically went to the eventual Best Picture winner – and while that has been the case the last three years (Everything Everywhere All at Once, Oppenheimer, Anora), there was actually a nine year streak where that wasn’t the case at all. As such, it’s tempting to predict that the Academy will reward Marty Supreme for its freneticism or F1 for its thrilling race scenes, but I do think they’ll ultimately end up on One Battle After Another, whose editing somehow makes a vast, decade spanning story feel coherent.

Best Visual Effects

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Jurassic World: Rebirth

The Lost Bus

Sinners

Will Win: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Should Win: Sinners

Upset Special: Sinners

Seems like a safe bet that, whenever an Avatar movie is nominated for visual effects, it’ll win. Again, this is another category that Sinners could take if it goes crazy on Sunday night. Considering that it’s a modern blockbuster that doesn’t look like it skimped on its effects the way too many do nowadays, I would say that it makes it a deserving winner. At least, that’s the vibe I get.