Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson May Be the Fourth Most Vulnerable Incumbent, but Democrats Shouldn’t Count On It
Starting with New Hampshire’s Maggie Hassan, over these two weeks starting February 21, we are profiling the five most vulnerable incumbent senators up in 2022. In this piece, the fourth most vulnerable: Wisconsin Republican Ron Johnson.
In 2010, Ron Johnson rode the Tea Party wave and defeated incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold, becoming the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin since 1986. He won reelection (once again against Feingold) in 2016 in what he promised would be his “last campaign.” But, wooed by the likes of Mitch McConnell, Johnson is back in the saddle and seeking a third term in 2022.
Biden carried the Badger State by less than one percent over Trump in 2020, but make no mistake, Wisconsin is not a state that leans Democratic and this race is not a true toss up. These narrow elections conceal what is otherwise a Republican-leaning state that is trending even more so to the right. The Wisconsin Democratic Party tends to put up pretty inoffensive – or even outright progressive (and successful) – candidates for statewide elections, but they have been met with mixed success during any remotely Republican-leaning year like the one 2022 is shaping up to be. The three leading candidates in the Democratic primary are Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes (a progressive), Treasurer Sarah Godlewski (an establishment insider), and Milwaukee Bucks Senior Vice President Alex Lasry (a wealthy political outsider) so Democrats truly have their pick of what strategy to take in 2022 against Johnson.
But it probably won’t matter. Johnson is a staunch Trump ally, a rabid conspiracist, and outright racist who rejectsfundamentaltruthsabout the world. Unfortunately for Democrats, this level of rancor is unexpectedly pervasive in the Midwest and in Wisconsin in particular. Johnson’s rhetoric hasn’t driven him from office before, and in 2020 Trump improved on his 2016 performance in Wisconsin relative to his national performance. Populist resentment against elites drove Wisconsin towards progressives for much of the 20th century, but it’s clear that the outlet for that energy in the 21st century is conservatism. Johnson has some vulnerabilities but he is currently favored to win this race.