Four years ago, I wrote an article about Eric Adams’ victory in New York City’s Democratic primary for mayor. In it, I cautioned against pointing to the eventual election of Adams – a former police officer who won non-white, working class voters via a law and order message – as proof that, less than a year after the George Floyd protests and Joe Biden’s election as president, the political tides were beginning to swing rightward. 

Was I right about that? In 2021, it didn’t seem that way – Glenn Youngkin pulled off a minor upset in Virginia’s gubernatorial race by emphasizing his opposition to critical race theory, while New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy came precariously close to losing reelection to Republican Jack Ciatterrelli. But things changed in the 2022 midterms, when election denialism and January 6th became bigger albatrosses than “Defund the Police” and debates over transgender athletes – only for the dynamic to snap back the other way two years later, when concerns about inflation and immigration propelled unexpected Republican gains among minority voters during the 2024 election. 

But, if I was right about one thing, it was that Adams’ win was about more than just this apparent right shift in voter preferences. Adams, I argued, won not just because of his policy proposals, but because of his unapologetically New York vibes. His support for law enforcement mixed with his history as a police reform advocate appealed to blue collar voters who fancied themselves populists but not radicals, and his pugnacious, unpolished personality was a breath of fresh air compared to the national Democrats’ focus grouped branding and the New England-bred niceties of his two predecessors. “The notion that populism may be better communicated through a candidate’s personality and background rather than their policies could help Democrats as they try to hold onto their narrow House and Senate majorities in next year’s midterm elections,” I wrote. And while Democrats would indeed lose the House, the vibes-over-substance campaign of Pennsylvania’s then-Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman helped not just maintain, but expand the party’s control of the Senate. 1On the flipside, the absolutely horrid vibes of Republican candidates like Blake Masters, Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, Kari Lake, and Doug Mastriano kneecapped the GOP in what should have been otherwise winnable Senate and gubernatorial races in key swing states.

And where do I find myself four years later? Once again arguing that a populist victory in New York offers us some lessons, but not the ones that the nation’s most rabid pundits will be focusing on. In the Big Apple’s Democratic mayoral primary, New York Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani defeated former Governor Andrew Cuomo, catapulting him into the general election against scandal-plagued incumbent Adams (who will be running as an independent) and the no hope bids of Republican Curtis Sliwa and independent Jim Walden (Cuomo, it seems, will also be mounting an independent campaign).

A 33-year-old socialist Muslim immigrant, Mamdani’s victory has understandably thrilled the left. After two failed presidential campaigns from Bernie Sanders, a lurch back to the right among voters on social issues, and a concerted effort among the Democratic Party to pivot to the center, the prospect of a card-carrying member of the Democratic Socialists of America and an unapologetic supporter of Palestinian rights not only becoming mayor of the nation’s largest city, but doing so by defeating the scion of a Democratic legacy and a centrist former cop who seems determined to kiss up to Donald Trump, is something that may have felt impossible only a few months ago. But, much like Adams’ victory in 2021, both Mamdani’s supporters and his detractors should step back and consider the wider context of this win before they come to any sweeping conclusions. 

Take, for instance, Mamdani’s chief opponent in the primary. Andrew Cuomo entered the race as the clear frontrunner. A lot of that had to do with name recognition, which he accrued during two-and-a-half terms as governor, and the reputation he forged for himself as a prickly but effective executive during the height of the COVID pandemic. He also came into the race with massive vulnerabilities, namely multiple allegations of sexual assault (which led to his ouster as governor in 2021) and his alleged undercounting of COVID-related deaths in nurisng homes. Still, early polling showed Cuomo with an overwhelming lead that made his nomination feel like fait accompli. 

Then, the race started in earnest and Cuomo did… nothing. The governor who bolstered his reputation via his daily COVID press briefings all of a sudden became camera shy, avoiding the media and mayoral forums in equal measure, attempting his version of a “Rose Garden strategy” to try and better control his campaign’s messaging. But what messaging, exactly, was he trying to control? It was never really clear, and Cuomo’s reticence to engage with either the press or the public didn’t provide him with a litany of opportunities to make it any clearer. He was supported by a PAC called Fix the City, which seemed to imply that he thought that the city was broken, but despite all of the money they spent ($87 per vote, according to The City) none of the campaign’s advertisements made plain why Cuomo was running and what he would do once he was in office. As someone who lives in the New York media market, I saw a lot of ads from mayoral candidates. Most of them featured the candidate themselves speaking at some point about their goals and ideas. But I don’t think I ever heard Cuomo say “I approve this message,” let alone elucidate on what kind of a mayor he would be. 

Mamadani, on the other hand, was inescapable, both on TV and social media. He first garnered attention by interviewing New Yorkers who voted for Donald Trump mere days after the 2024 election, and, as the campaign wore on, rolled out a relentless canvassing and content operation, enlisting over 26,000 volunteers, recorded videos in multiple languages, and making splashier appearances with Internet celebrities like The Kid Mero. The height of his efforts came on the Friday before the election, when Mamdani walked the length of Manhattan, a feat that helped shift the conversation about his youth from inexperience to one of vitality, a stark contrast with the low energy, low visibility campaign of the 67-year-old Cuomo. 

Mamdani was also relentlessly on message. Yes, he made inflammatory remarks about the NYPD in the past. Yes, he blundered when he failed to denounce the phrase “globalize the intifada.” But he always found a way to pivot away from the culture war issues and back to his agenda to make New York “more affordable” by providing free buses, free childcare, and municipal grocery stores. And he did it all with a smile on his face. Some of the policies Mamdani wants to pursue may be radical, but rather than frame them as a step towards abolishing capitalism or redressing historical injustices, he appealed to an almost Obama-esque sense of optimism. 

“There is a myth about this city. It’s the lie that life has to be hard in New York,” Mamadani says in one of his oft run ads. “I believe we can guarantee cheaper groceries, we can raise the minimum wage, we can freeze the rent for two million tenants and build hundreds of thousands of affordable homes. It’s the city government’s job to deliver that.” Whether you agree with him or not, the clarity and vision are undeniable, and the dour and invisible Cuomo had no effective response. 

The end result was an upset stunning in both its completeness and its magnitude. Most pollsters had Cuomo winning the ranked-choice primary, and even those that did have Mamdani winning still had Cuomo leading after the first round. But Mamdani jumped out to an early lead on primary night thanks to early and absentee ballots and never let it go. Most prognosticators had assumed that the in person vote, likely to skew more establishment, would eventually put Cuomo over the edge. But instead, Mamdani proved to be more resilient among voters many thought may have been scared off by such a progressive platform, and Cuomo conceded the race before midnight. Mamdani pulled this off by not only running up the score in the so-called “Commie Corridor” (the string of East River-bordering neighborhoods in Brooklyn and Queens populated by young, leftist gentrifiers) but by also beating Cuomo in Latino and Asian precincts – many of which swung towards Trump in 2024. 

It’s an achievement that the left should undoubtedly be proud of, but one that they should study carefully, as well. Mamdani didn’t show up to events draped in a keffiyeh or waving a red flag – in fact, as far as I can tell, he barely uttered the phrase “socialist” at all. Instead, he put on a suit and a smile, and talked to his voters about their material concerns – a stated goal of leftists, but one that’s often overshadowed by their commitment to ideological purity. And when it came to Israel, Mamdani, despite some stumbles, managed to thread the needle, skillfully (and I would argue, correctly) insisting that the best way to help Jewish New Yorkers was to focus on the five boroughs, not a foreign war unfolding thousands of miles away, and that Israel had a right to exist “with equal rights.” 

He also, notably, did not go out of his way to antagonize his fellow Democrats. He framed himself as an agent of change, yes, and railed against Cuomo as an entitled relic, but, unlike some of the more strident members of the progressive base, never claimed that the primary was rigged against him, or that he was being treated unfairly. In fact, he even co-endorsed fellow mayoral candidate Brad Lander, and at least one of his videos explaining ranked choice voting also encouraged voters to rank Zellnor Myrie, Adrienne Adams, and Michael Blake. When asked if he wanted the endorsements of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Minority Chuck Schumer – two Brooklynites who embody the Democratic establishment – he said that he did, and that he was hoping to build an “ever expanding coalition” of support. Cuomo, on the other hand, only ranked himself on primary day.

So the lesson for the left, it appears, is to moderate your language and play nice with the Democratic Party – two things that they are probably loath to hear come from the mouth of a centrist sell-out such as myself. But one aspect of Mamdani’s win that should be cause for celebration among the DSA and company is that the seemingly permanent stigma attached to progressives and socialists may be fading away. Granted, New York City is hardly comparable to the kind of swing states that Democrats need to succeed in to retake control of the federal government. But the fact that the right message can, in fact, eclipse the fears elicited by the words “Muslim” and “socialist,” and that a figure like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez can become an asset, not a liability, to a campaign, should be heartening for the left. It turns out that if you strip away the alienating language and performative edginess you can, in fact, connect with voters. 

But mainstream Democrats also have a lot to learn from Mamdani – namely that they too should realize that the key to inspiring and resonating with voters is proposing solutions to make their everyday lives easier, not merely assuring them that they’ll be a steady hand on the status quo. In the Trump era, the Democratic Party has gotten too comfortable running candidates who sell themselves as prophylactics only good for keeping far right Republicans out of power. Occasionally, that’s worked, but when it hasn’t, it’s because Democrats have failed to offer a true vision to voters. The party’s centrists need to rediscover a sense of purpose beyond opposing Trump. They need to give voters a reason to believe that they’ll make their lives better instead of merely preventing it from getting worse. 

There’s reason to believe that Mamdani’s victory will be either fleeting or pyrrhic. Despite his breakthrough, the Democratic nominees in New Jersey and Virginia’s gubernatorial races are both Blue Dogs with national security backgrounds. Swing district New York Democrats Tom Suozzi and Laura Gillen have expressed either skepticism or outright hostility towards Mamdani, and a rocky first year in office could complicate Democratic efforts to win suburban Congressional districts on Long Island and in the Hudson Valley and Northern New Jersey. In fact, there’s still a chance Mamdani never even enters Gracie Mansion, as donors and business leaders are scrambling to boost Adams’ general election campaign.

But for the time being, both the center and the left of the Democratic Party have things to take from Mamdani’s unlikely victory. One faction needs to be a little bolder, the other a little more square. Either way, the lesson is to try something new.