August 8, 2022 by Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito

Following the results of the 2020 election and the runoffs in Georgia in 2021, which delivered an evenly-split 50-50 Senate (with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking the tie in favor of the Democrats), Republicans now need to net just one seat to win control of the Senate. Though Republicans would seem to have the upperhand as backlash to President Biden and the Democratic-controlled Congress brews, Republicans are actually on the defensive once again.

Of the 35 seats up this cycle (this includes one special election in Oklahoma), Republicans hold 21 of them and have incumbents retiring in six. They’re also defending two states (Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that Biden narrowly carried in the 2020 election, while all 14 Democratic-held seats this year are in states Biden won.

If you followed our 2020 Senate race ratings and analysis last cycle, you may be familiar with what we’re doing again this year. But, there are a few changes we highlighted in our methodology describing this year’s ratings (check it out for more detail on how we do this). Here’s a summary of the main things to note this year:

  • Earlier, Continuing, and Rolling Ratings: You may notice that some of the states are “Not Yet Rated.” We’re rating races on a rolling basis this cycle so that you can see some ratings right away and don’t have to wait for all the primaries to be over to see some analysis. Every time we issue a rating, you’ll find not just the updated map, but also a complementary piece on the site explaining the rating.
  • Update Oriented: If we decide a state rating merits adjustment, we will publish an update for that state both on the map and in a larger piece.
  • Individual-Focused: Like with our 2018 and 2020 Senate ratings, we’re still focused on telling you about the individual quirks behind each race — because candidates matter more in localized races and less so on the presidential level.
  • Overall Projection: Our projection of the final control of the Senate is not a prediction, it is a mathematical allocation based on the parties’ respective odds across the states. Once all states’ Senate races have been split in this way, we round down to the nearest full seat. You can check out our methodology for more details.

With all of this in mind, The Postrider is proud to present its own ratings and analysis for every race in this year’s Senate elections:

9 Seats

Safe Democrat

 2

Likely Dem

 1

Lean Dem

 3

Toss-Up

 5

Likely GOP

 15 Seats

Safe Republican
  Republicans need to win 22 seats to control the Senate
(Democrats keep control) Our Projection: Republicans will win 21.4 seats, resulting in a 50-50 Senate split

*Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are both independents who caucus with the Democrats, so we have included them as “Democrats” for the sake of control of the Senate.
**The incumbent (or the candidate from the incumbent party) is listed on the right.

Click on a state to see the Senate race analysis