Lars Emerson
contact@thepostrider.com
How Our (Emergency) 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Power Index Works
We’re about 100 days out from a presidential election, and the Democrats have to build almost an entirely new ticket from scratch. We didn’t think we’d be here either, but luckily we’re never ones to shy away from discussion of ...
What Happens to Our 2024 Presidential Election Model Now?
Well, this is awkward. We’ve spent months of our time building out a model of the grand electoral rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Now that Biden has dropped out at the last minute, where does that leave us, ...
Is the Biden Campaign Really Relying on the Debunked 13 Keys to Make This Decision?
If Biden's stature is so weak that they are actually pointing to a debunked model to justify staying in, it should cause immediate concern.
Biden’s Path Forward: It’s Time to Address Age Head On
When in doubt, run to the truth.
Letter: Allan Lichtman’s Response
On Wednesday, we published a piece concerning Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys” model and the 2016 election. In the spirit of open discussion, we’ve decided to publish a response Professor Lichtman sent to us shortly after our piece was published: Thank ...
Allan Lichtman is Famous for Correctly Predicting the 2016 Election. The Problem? He Didn’t
The history professor is one of the few credited with predicting Trump's 2016 win. There's just one problem: he's rewritten history to obfuscate that his model only predicted the popular vote, which Trump lost.
You can read Professor Lichtman’s response here.
You can read our follow-up reporting debunking his later alleged timeline here.
When Will the Rust Belt’s Electoral Supremacy End?
Recently, we dove into something of a political obsession of ours: the “crossover” between the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt – and tried to figure out at what point Democrats would have an easier time winning the Sun Belt ...
Is the Rust Belt Still the Lowest Hanging Fruit for Biden?
“The Rust Belt or bust” is the mantra of conventional political wisdom that just will not die out... does it still hold water?
When Trump Might Name His Running Mate, and Why He Should Wait
Trump would be wise to wait until the week before the convention, just like most campaigns do.
Politics Express: Our 2024 Presidential Election Model
Our 2024 Presidential Election Model is live! The Postrider‘s Politics Editor and Editor-in-Chief unpack the basics, talk about their philosophy, why they’ve beaten the heavy-hitting models the last three cycles, and have some fun explaining how you can use the map too. ...
2024 Presidential Election Model
We're back and excited to cover this cycle. Use our tool to make your own assumptions and happy electioneering!
How Our 2024 Presidential Model Works—And How You Can Use It Too
A primer on the basics.
2024 Presidential Model: Comprehensive Methodology and Approach
How we combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to beat other election models, and how you can too.
Politics Express: 2024 Republican Primary Draft – Crowning the Winner
The Republican primary comes to an end not with a bang, but with a whimper, as all major candidates but former President Donald Trump have dropped out and he has accumulated the delegates necessary to receive the nomination. After it ...
Alaska and Maine’s Ranked-Choice Elections Could Have a Profound Impact on the 2024 Presidential Election
In 2020, Alaska voters approved a ballot initiative which converted their primary system into a nonpartisan blanket primary wherein the four candidates who received the most votes would go to the general election. There, the winner would be determined by ...
Donald Trump Should Deliver the Republican Response to the State of the Union
President Joe Biden’s 2024 State of the Union is set to be far more consequential than his 2023 address. The Biden administration, not to mention his campaign, are sure to try and seize on the March 7 speech as a ...
Romneyland: Part IV — The Right Man at the Right Time
How would President Romney have handled the pandemic and the 2020 election?
Romneyland: Part III — A United Tomorrow
Would President Romney pull off reelection in 2016?
Romneyland: Part II — America’s Comeback Team
Who would've been in President Romney's cabinet?
Romneyland: Part I — Believe in America
How could Mitt Romney have won the 2012 election?
Politics Express: Redrawing the Dollar
The Postrider‘s Politics Editor Lars Emerson and Editor-in-Chief Michael Lovito present their own visions for how to redesign U.S. currency. Who would we put on coins? What denominations would we add or subtract? And how can America use its money ...
Politics Express: Trump, the Presumptive Nominee?
The Postrider‘s Politics Editor Lars Emerson and Editor-in-Chief Michael Lovito hop on to talk about whether Donald Trump should be considered the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee already, after just two primary contests; how he can power through to the general ...