In the last few election cycles, no State has swung so significantly – but with less impact on national elections – than Utah. Though reliably Republican at the state level, it has gone from being a state that seemed entirely out of reach for Democrats (Al Gore received only 26% of the vote there in 2000) to one they could feasibly compete in given enough time and goodwill (Biden got just shy of 38% there in 2020, better than any Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson). What happened?

Donald Trump, that’s what happened. Utah’s shift towards Democrats has not been particularly consistent, unless you look at the last few years. Having nominated something of a native son as their candidate for president in 2012, the Republican Party rapidly shifted away from the more religious, establishment-friendly, and rule of law outlook that appealed to the state’s very unique set of voters. Where many reliably red states became even redder over the last eight years, Utah’s very singular demographic group, Mormons (who make up around 60% of the state’s population) have had the opposite reaction: they eschewed the Trump takeover of the GOP and voted in droves for third parties in 2016 (depriving Trump of a majority of the vote in the state – he only received 45.5%) and ultimately for Joe Biden in 2020. Though Biden did not win Mormon voters outright, the results pointed towards a positive trend for Democrats: only two-thirds of Mormons voted for Trump, younger Mormons seemed to narrowly support Biden, and Biden received the largest Mormon vote share for a Democratic candidate in the 21st century. We covered the budding prospects for Mormon voters and the Democratic Party a couple years back, and we expect the group to continue its leftward shift. However, as rapid as this shift has seemed, it is coming from a heavily Republican-leaning starting point; you should not expect Biden to overcome the lean and run a competitive race in Utah based on this alone. But other things might. 

For one, a strong third party challenge would disproportionately affect the race in Utah. In a cycle such as 2024, in which third parties are poised to outperform their 2020 numbers, it’s worth considering how someone like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. being on the ballot would affect Utah. If 2016 is any guide, it’s that more establishment Mormon voters want an alternative to Trump but may be unwilling to take the leap into the Democratic Party. Trump’s unfavorables remain particularly high among the ancestrally Republican voting bloc of Mormons, but Biden may struggle to hold together the moderate and unity-restoring coalition that netted him many of the Mormons in 2020. They will almost certainly turn towards a third party – or sit out. In Utah, this will harm Republican vote share.

For all the commentary about Utah’s deep red backdrop (all points aside, Utah is one of the most Republican states in the nation), because of Trump, the Republican base is far more squishy than the Democratic one. That’s because, buoyed by a booming metropolitan area in Salt Lake City (which has delivered some federal electoral wins to Democrats), a high population growth rate (Utah was the fastest growing state last decade), and high rates of education (about 37% of Utahns have college degrees, outpacing all but 12 states – all of which are reliably Democratic), the population in the state has started to resemble the Democratic coalition. Salt Lake City may not be the next Denver or Austin yet, but it’s on its way to becoming the next Las Vegas – a moderate city that mediates the more radical impulses of the state, and where Democrats may be able to claw back voting power in the state at large given enough time.

Utah’s not there this year, but it’s getting close. A significant shift in the generic ballot, higher performing third parties, or a massive scandal could call a Trump victory in the state into question. If the race really shakes up, expect us to turn an eye to Utah before most others would – exciting things are afoot in the Beehive State.