Tag: ratings

Our Senate forecast outperformed FiveThirtyEight and The Economist -- but we can always do better!

In our initial rating of the Badger State’s Senate race, we gave the Democratic nominee -- Mandela Barnes -- the benefit of the doubt because the polls, which he often led in, pointed to a close race. That is no longer justifiable.

When we made our initial rating for Pennsylvania’s Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman had yet to trail in a poll and the NRSC was pulling ad buys out of the Philadelphia market. Now, the race has edged towards a true toss-up.

Two months and 35 ratings later and they’re all in. Our full ratings for 2022’s Senate election are live and here to light your way through every odd character or peculiar wrinkle in each pivotal (and not-so-pivotal) race this cycle.  ...

With their full suite of 2022 Senate ratings now live, The Postrider‘s Politics Editor Lars Emerson and Editor-in-Chief Michael Lovito hop on the podcast to discuss the national factors in the race for the chamber, what states listeners should be paying attention ...

Not since Florida started a recount in 2000 has a state grasped the attention of the nation like Georgia did in 2020 and early 2021. This year will keep the Peach State in the spotlight.

It's fitting that the Badger State is the penultimate of our Senate Ratings, as it has been the most important state electorally over the last decade. Even despite a hypocritical and controversial GOP incumbent, Republicans have the advantage.

Don Bolduc v. Maggie Hassan Likely Democrat If there was any bright spot for the Democrats in 2016, it was then-Governor Maggie Hassan’s razor thin victory over incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte for the right to represent New Hampshire in the ...

Louisiana is always a weird one for election handicappers because its elections are often handled in a couple stages: a primary in which all candidates of all parties compete on the same ballot and then, should none of them get over 50% of the vote outright, a runoff election between the top-two finishers.

Alaska may tend to vote for Republicans in state wide elections, but whether it involves a successful write in campaign, a second place Libertarian finisher, or an independent gubernatorial victory, their races are rarely boring.

Kendra Horn v. Markwayne Mullin Safe Republican In 2018, Kendra Horn stood out as one of the unlikeliest ripples of the blue wave when she unseated the heavily favored Steve Russell in Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, becoming the first Democrat ...

Madison Horn v. James Lankford Safe Republican In many other states, an incumbent senator being adjacent to a major (if undercovered) sexual abuse scandal and testifying that you believe 13 year-olds can consent to sex would at least inject some ...

There’s something tedious about covering politics in the Tar Heel State. As with Florida, it always feels close – but never quite manages to flip.

Brian Bengs v. John Thune Safe Republican Like its neighbor to the north, South Dakota was once a red state that frequently sent Democrats to the Senate, counting 1972 presidential nominee George McGovern and one time Senate Majority Leader Tom ...

After years of Florida letting Democrats down, is there really any hope for them in the Sunshine State?

Gerald Malloy v. Peter Welch Safe Democrat This November, there will be an open Senate election in a state that is over 90% white, over 60% rural, and has only elected one Democratic senator in its 231 year history. It’s ...

Leora Levy v. Richard Blumenthal Safe Democrat When Richard Blumenthal, now a two-term Democratic incumbent, first won his seat, it was 2010, and Republicans were obliterating Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. Up against businesswoman Linda McMahon (the wife ...

One of the highest profile races this cycle is the Keystone State's epic showdown between Democratic Lieutanant Governor John Fetterman and TV doctor and New Jerseyan Mehmet Oz.

Jo Rae Perkins v. Ron Wyden Safe Democrat Oregon holds a lot of potential for Republicans. It’s a large western state with lots of white voters and most of the state (geographically speaking) is deep red. But, as Colorado and ...

Bob McDermott v. Brian Schatz Safe Democrat If you spend way too much time on Twitter, you’ve probably come across Hawaii Senator Brian Schatz, perhaps the most active Democratic lawmaker on the platform. He’s also among the most aggressive “climate ...

When this seat was last contested in 2016, a handful of forecasters considered it a toss up or lean Republican at most.

Charles Booker v. Rand Paul Safe Republican In 2020, nobody’s profile was raised more by losing a primary than the progressive, Bernie Sanders- and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-endorsed Kentucky state Representative Charles Booker, who lost his state’s Democratic Senate primary by less ...