Category: Politics

Nevada no longer clearly favors Democrats at the presidential level, but it is a shining example of how effort, issues, and relationships still matter.

The Garden State could use some more polling!

We've incorporated probability and odds of winning on our models.

We’ve put a lot of thought into Arizona and landed with this: any tiny shift could change the outcome.

The three most common words you read and hear between now and Election Day will be “Pennsylvania,” “Pennsylvania,” and “Pennsylvania.”

In 2022, one of the reasons why the Republicans struggled in so many competitive Senate races is that they simply did not run good candidates. Mehmet Oz of Pennsylvania, Blake Masters of Arizona, and Herschel Walker of Georgia all had ...

If our headline caught you off guard, then strap in. We’ve got a lot to catch you up on! At the time we’re putting this out, the race for control of the Senate clearly favors Republicans. Working with 49 seats ...

The prelude to the New Jersey race was dramatic, but the state hasn’t elected a Republican to the Senate since 1972. Does the GOP have an opening?

Arizona Republicans keep running bad candidates in otherwise winnable races, 2024 is no exception.

Could one electoral vote really be that important?

For one, Rick Scott's last narrow margin was in a cycle that clearly favored Democrats. 2024 ain't that.

The Tar Heel State has been something of a white whale for national Democrats this century. It's still Harris' lowest hanging fruit if she wants to expand the 2020 map.

Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980. Could 2024 change that?

Republicans seem to do better in Wisconsin when turnout increases, this creates risk for Tammy Baldwin

It’s not very often that you get a do-over in electoral politics, but Republicans will be getting something close to that in Pennsylvania in 2024. In the state’s last Senate election, in 2022, the party went through an ugly primary ...

We're back and excited to cover this Senate election. Use our tool to make your own assumptions and happy electioneering!

A primer on the basics.

How we combine quantitative and qualitative analysis to beat other election models, and how you can too.

Georgia epitomises how Democrats have expanded the map in the Trump era. That doesn't mean it's easy to win.

In a high turnout presidential election, expect Wisconsin to be close

The trend towards Democrats in the Lone Star state is undeniable, but it still favors Republicans

Demographic trends and a fraying coalition pose risks for Harris in Michigan, though Republican missteps provide an opening