Category: Politics
A Proposal for a Fair Presidential Primary System
The presidential primary process is in desperate need of reform. Here is our proposal to balance the strengths of the modern system with fairness to all states and regions with a splash of theatrics.
Evaluating Our 2022 Senate Ratings
Our Senate forecast outperformed FiveThirtyEight and The Economist -- but we can always do better!
South Carolina is Better at Picking the Nominee Than Other Early States
You’ve heard the news – the death of the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus is upon us! Well, maybe. There’s at least some movement, as it looks like the Democratic Party is moving towards replacing Iowa with a more representative state like ...
Kevin McCarthy May Not Have the Votes
Barring any shocking developments, deaths, or party-switches, Republicans will hold 222 seats in the House of Representatives when the 118th Congress convenes in January. A caucus of 222 is notable for two reasons: first, it gives Republicans only four members ...
Politics Express: 2024 Republican Primary Draft – Post-Midterm Check In
After the 2022 midterms and our first Republican candidate jumping into the field, Lars, Michael, and Chris hop on to make some big moves in our 2024 Republican Primary rosters! Check out the lineup and the trades here, and listen ...
The Winners and Losers of the 2022 Midterms
With high inflation, elevated gas prices, and a Democratic president whose popularity is underwater, most observers went into election night expecting a red wave that would not only gum up President Joe Biden’s policy agenda, but also set the stage ...
It All Came Down to Nevada
We’ll have lots to say in the weeks to come about the incredibly strange midterm that continues to unfold. But with Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto’s successful reelection in Nevada, we can confidently say that control of the Senate will remain ...
The 2022 Midterms: Live!
Join us on Election Night, Tuesday, November 8 starting at 7:30 PM until we just can’t go any longer! Politics Editor Lars Emerson and Editor-in-Chief Michael Lovito will be talking through election results as they come in over on Twitter ...
Ratings Update: Wisconsin Senate Race
In our initial rating of the Badger State’s Senate race, we gave the Democratic nominee -- Mandela Barnes -- the benefit of the doubt because the polls, which he often led in, pointed to a close race. That is no longer justifiable.
Ratings Change: Pennsylvania Senate Race
When we made our initial rating for Pennsylvania’s Senate race, Democrat John Fetterman had yet to trail in a poll and the NRSC was pulling ad buys out of the Philadelphia market. Now, the race has edged towards a true toss-up.
Politics Express: 2022’s Gubernatorial Races
We're joined by Split Ticket Founding Partner and Contributing Author Armin Thomas to discuss the state of 2022's gubernatorial elections. What states are we watching? What races should you keep an eye on? And what can you ignore?
What to Watch (and What We’re Watching) for Our Senate Ratings Before November
Two months and 35 ratings later and they’re all in. Our full ratings for 2022’s Senate election are live and here to light your way through every odd character or peculiar wrinkle in each pivotal (and not-so-pivotal) race this cycle. ...
Four Takeaways from August and September’s Primaries and Special Elections
After a quiet July (and a jam packed August), our “takeaways” series returns with a look at the last two months of primary and special elections season, taking a look at Trump’s endorsements, the Left’s struggles, and the suddenly optimistic ...
George Clooney’s Political Ad
This is a departure from our usual style of programming. It’s a report of something George Clooney said on Saturday afternoon at History Talks 2022 at the Daughters of the American Revolution’s Constitution Hall. In a conversation between Clooney – ...
Politics Express: The Full 2022 Senate Map
With their full suite of 2022 Senate ratings now live, The Postrider‘s Politics Editor Lars Emerson and Editor-in-Chief Michael Lovito hop on the podcast to discuss the national factors in the race for the chamber, what states listeners should be paying attention ...
Initial Rating: Georgia Senate Race
Not since Florida started a recount in 2000 has a state grasped the attention of the nation like Georgia did in 2020 and early 2021. This year will keep the Peach State in the spotlight.
Initial Rating: Wisconsin Senate Race
It's fitting that the Badger State is the penultimate of our Senate Ratings, as it has been the most important state electorally over the last decade. Even despite a hypocritical and controversial GOP incumbent, Republicans have the advantage.
Initial Rating: New Hampshire Senate Race
Don Bolduc v. Maggie Hassan Likely Democrat If there was any bright spot for the Democrats in 2016, it was then-Governor Maggie Hassan’s razor thin victory over incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte for the right to represent New Hampshire in the ...
Politics Express: An Insider’s Look at Political Outreach and Advertising
Politics Editor Lars Emerson and The Postrider‘s Editor-in-Chief Michael Lovito are joined by Faith Rokowski from Blueprint Interactive, a Democratic digital strategy firm in DC, to discuss the state of political fundraising, campaign advertising, and digital best practices in the modern ...
Initial Rating: Louisiana Senate Race
Louisiana is always a weird one for election handicappers because its elections are often handled in a couple stages: a primary in which all candidates of all parties compete on the same ballot and then, should none of them get over 50% of the vote outright, a runoff election between the top-two finishers.
Initial Rating: Alaska Senate Race
Alaska may tend to vote for Republicans in state wide elections, but whether it involves a successful write in campaign, a second place Libertarian finisher, or an independent gubernatorial victory, their races are rarely boring.
Initial Rating: Oklahoma’s (Special) Senate Race
Kendra Horn v. Markwayne Mullin Safe Republican In 2018, Kendra Horn stood out as one of the unlikeliest ripples of the blue wave when she unseated the heavily favored Steve Russell in Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, becoming the first Democrat ...