Category: Politics

Demographic trends and a fraying coalition pose risks for Harris in Michigan, though Republican missteps provide an opening

Biden dropping out caused a lot of modeling chaos but our coconut-adjusted presidential election model is now back up and running!

The Sunshine State generates a lot of noise, let's distinguish between what matters and what doesn’t.

Trump will triumph in this rebellious district, but an underperformance could make for an interesting race for second place.

Harris has the advantage in Minnesota so long as she can stay above water nationally. In a cycle like this, that’s not a sure thing.

Gone are the days of presidential candidates traversing the Centennial State to win its electoral votes.

Ranked-choice voting eliminates the effect of third party spoilers, but uncertainty cuts both ways.

Exciting things are afoot in the Beehive State.

On the surface, the Land of Enchantment looks like a Trump pickup opportunity, but a closer look reveals unusual demographics which clearly favor Biden.

New Hampshire almost went for Trump in 2016, it swung decisively away from him four years later, where will it fall in 2024?

So much for “as goes Ohio, so goes the nation.”

Republican gains have been offset by an electoral system that favors moderates.

It's hard to imagine a world where Trump wins the Old Dominion unless he manifests a clear popular vote victory.

How vice presidential candidates boost the margin in their home state and how tickets can maximize the electoral impact of this effect.

Did Democrats somehow stumble into an enviable position in the 2024 election?

Because who said The Postrider couldn't do rapid response?

We’re about 100 days out from a presidential election, and the Democrats have to build almost an entirely new ticket from scratch. We didn’t think we’d be here either, but luckily we’re never ones to shy away from discussion of ...

Back in February, I wrote a piece titled “Democrats Do Not, In Fact, Have a Better Option Than Biden,” a fairly direct response to arguments made by Nate Silver and Ezra Klein that President Joe Biden should abandon his reelection ...

Well, this is awkward.  We’ve spent months of our time building out a model of the grand electoral rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Now that Biden has dropped out at the last minute, where does that leave us, ...

If Biden's stature is so weak that they are actually pointing to a debunked model to justify staying in, it should cause immediate concern.

When in doubt, run to the truth.

On Wednesday, we published a piece concerning Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys” model and the 2016 election. In the spirit of open discussion, we’ve decided to publish a response Professor Lichtman sent to us shortly after our piece was published: Thank ...