In a remarkably brief period of time, the Centennial State has moved from the spotlight of the presidential campaign to something of an afterthought. The tipping point state for both of Barack Obama’s presidential elections, Colorado is now widely considered a safe Democratic state; in 2020, its margin for Biden over Trump was closer to New Jersey, Oregon, and Illinois than swingier blue-leaning states like New Hampshire or Minnesota. So where does that leave Colorado in 2024?

The 2022 midterm illuminates a lot of the relevant concerns for Republicans trying to fight against the Democratic current in Colorado. With an incumbent (and unpopular) Democratic president in the White House, Republicans expected to compete earnestly in the state, and they played across the field to do so. Republicans ended up nominating a relatively moderate candidate for Senate (Trump called the GOP nominee “stupid”), a less moderate candidate for governor, thought they could hold on to seats in the statehouse, and thought they could pick up the state’s new congressional district – which would be a toss-up in an even year. Given this was a year that favored Republicans, what happened was nothing short of stunning.

The incumbent Democratic senator won by about 15%, the incumbent Democratic governor won by 19%, a Democrat won the new congressional district, and the GOP fell to its smallest minority in the state legislature in state history. “An extinction level event,” is how a losing Republican state representative described it. “Utter annihilation of Republicans,” wrote a GOP strategist in the state. Colorado was delivering for Democrats on a night where deep blue New York came close to being competitive, so it begs the question: is this a result of the state’s continued and well-documented shift towards Democrats, or something else? 

Both provide the answer, and give a clear conclusion regarding the state of the 2024 presidential race. Colorado has seen rapid population growth over the last decade, heavily concentrated in the Front Range counties which contain solidly Democratic cities like Denver, Fort Collins, and Boulder, and even historically Republican-leaning cities that now are more evenly split like Colorado Springs (which elected an independent as mayor in 2023, the first time since it started directly electing mayors that it didn’t elect a Republican). That all of these cities double as college towns in a state well-regarded for its high education levels and investment in both primary and higher education further boosts Democrats. A heavy tech, science, aerospace, and government presence in the state brings in and accommodates a lot of more liberal voters, even as the state has become significantly more expensive to rent or buy in in recent years.

Meanwhile, if the earlier description of “extinction” didn’t foretell this point too much, the Colorado Republican Party is a shell of what it once was. In the wake of the 2022 midterms, the party turned on local Republicans deemed insufficiently conservative, shifted rightward, and has struggled financially. We expect this to diminish Republican performance in the Centennial State this cycle. 

It’d be one thing if the state GOP was diminished and the state Democratic Party were a mediocre party merely taking advantage of the Republican divisions. Unfortunately for Republicans – and if the last decade of overperformances didn’t give it away – the Colorado Democratic Party is probably one of the strongest state parties in the country. The Party has seized on its statewide and nationalized successes and turned towards local races to great success, attracted an enviable amount of money in 2022 and again this cycle, and managed to remain a centrist party with a diverse coalition. 

In something of a parallel for Democratic campaigns in the last few years, the prominent Democrats from the state tend to eschew culture war issues and focus on education, healthcare, cost of living, and better government. Gone are the days of presidential candidates and advertisements blanketing the state to win its electoral votes. We expect Biden to handily carry the Centennial State.