The Land of Enchantment last swung for the Republican presidential candidate in 2004, when George W. Bush narrowly eked out a victory over John Kerry. In each subsequent election, it favored Democrats by around 10% on average (or, accounting for national performance, about 6-7 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole). We do not expect this to change much this year, so why is it getting its own special write-up in our presidential coverage?

For one, a lead of 7 points places the state squarely within at least the outside reach of the Republican candidate in a year in which they win the popular vote (in fact, 2004 was the last year in which this happened, and look which way New Mexico went!). For another, though the state has shifted towards Democrats over the last decade (Biden won a commanding 11% margin over Trump there in 2020), the state is unusual in that it looks like what should be a state that favors Trump – or at least one where he’ll gain ground. In fact, most national factors tend to point to New Mexico being much closer to three or four points more Democratic than the nation, nowhere close to 7. So let’s start with why that is, and then build back towards where we expect New Mexico to land.

New Mexico was hit particularly hard by inflation over the course of the Biden presidency, and is also one of the least educated and poorest states in the nation. Though Trump’s base of non-college educated white voters make up a paltry 20% of the state, New Mexico has a large Latino population (32% of the state), which is also expected to shift rightward this election. Additionally, the effects of illegal immigration in the state (which is located within the El Paso Border Patrol sector, now the busiest sector for the first time in 30 years) suggest both groups will likely punish Harris to some additional degree due to her vulnerability on this issue.

So why does Biden lead in every poll of New Mexico? Countervailing factors which boost Democrats in the state are small but aggregate to create a compelling ceiling for Republicans. Native Americans generally, but the Navajo Nation in New Mexico specifically, have seen increased turnout and support for Democrats in recent years, and we expect this trend to continue among the roughly 12% of New Mexicans that identify as Native Americans. And, while the state lags in its percentage of a population with a college degree (a group which is now predominantly Democratic and has high turnout levels), a whopping 14% of the state holds an advanced degree – placing New Mexico in the top 15 states in terms of post-bachelor’s degree attainment. This – as any recent film buff can attest to – is due to the concentration of major federal labs in the state, like Los Alamos (which is now a very wealthy city, boosted by high-paid science and tech workers). Aside from federal labs, the “Rio Grande Technology Corridor” boasts a plethora of private companies too, with names like Intel, Facebook, and HP dotting the landscape alongside several universities. Investment and growth in these areas have paid dividends for more Democratic-inclined voters, while investment in green energy at the national level has even meant that this research has led to tangible benefits for lower income individuals in the state, something the Biden administration has championed.

This is what sets New Mexico apart from seemingly similar, more Republican inclined states (such as Nevada). New Mexico may have high income inequality, with a squeezed middle class in between those barely scraping by and those making well over $100,000 a year, but Democrats do very well with New Mexicans who make below $50,000 in particular (42% of voters in the state) as well as those who make over $100,000 (21% of voters in the state). Because the higher paid workers are concentrated in high tech, academia, and government jobs, the electorate ends up being far more Democratic than it looks on paper (Trump won those making over $100,000 in the 2020 election, but not in New Mexico).

Though the Land of Enchantment has a lot to offer Republicans on the surface, a cursory look below reveals a particularly unusual set of demographics in a very small state that overwhelmingly favor Democrats, and Kamala Harris, in the 2024 election.