It’s not very often that you get a do-over in electoral politics, but Republicans will be getting something close to that in Pennsylvania in 2024. In the state’s last Senate election, in 2022, the party went through an ugly primary that ended with celebrity doctor and talk show host Mehmet Oz barely eking a win over hedge fund CEO and former Treasury Department official David McCormick. Oz, who was dogged by his elitist image, an abortion-related debate gaffe, and the fact that, until he decided to run, he did not actually live in Pennsylvania, ended up losing to John Fetterman, who was dealing with some highly publicized struggles of his own, by nearly five points, and left Republicans wondering if McCormick may have won the race instead. 

McCormick didn’t even face a primary opponent this year, which means that Republicans will get to test their theories about 2022 in 2024, at least to a certain extent. Perhaps the biggest obstacle to McCormick succeeding where Oz ultimately failed is that, instead of running against the polarizing Fetterman, he’ll be facing three-term incumbent Bob Casey Jr., who’s never won less than 53% of the vote in all of his Senate races. Of course, Casey had the good fortune to be running in the blue wave years of 2006, 2012, and 2018 in each of his prior elections, and the electoral environment in 2024 figures to be much more Republican leaning than it was in either of those three years. 

From a candidate quality perspective, Casey would seem to have the edge. While, unlike Oz, McCormick has actual governing experience, his 2022 relocation from Connecticut makes him vulnerable to the same accusations of carpetbagging, and the investments his hedge fund has made in companies with ties to China’s military to could draw the ire not only of foreign policy hawks, but Pennsylvanians in the state’s once mighty manufacturing sector who could be swayed by Casey’s past opposition to Chinese steel imports. It also doesn’t help McCormick that Casey is something of a brand name in Pennsylvania, the son of a former governor who served the state as attorney general and treasurer before winning his first Senate race 18 years ago. His evolution on abortion rights also provides him with a unique angle to what will be one of the most hotly debated issues of the campaign. A former opponent of Roe v. Wade, Casey has since advocated for codifying abortion rights nationwide, an ideological journey which could make him the ideal Democratic messenger to social conservatives who might not be completely sold on McCormick. 

If there’s one X factor outside of President Joe Biden’s unpopularity that could help McCormick pull fully ahead of Casey, it’s the fact that he was present during the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania in July. The long term political effects of the shooting have yet to take shape, and there are signs that its relevance may fade as the campaign goes on, but if McCormick could somehow fashion himself as a sort of John Connally figure to Trump’s John F. Kennedy, he may be able to play on voters’ sympathies and desire for political reconciliation. That, of course, is a big if, and even if the top of the Republican ticket may be polling well in the Keystone State, which is expected to be close, Casey’s incumbency, moderation, and the strength of his local brand will make this a close race.