There’s good news for Democrats in the Grand Canyon State where their incumbent (and favorite) senator, former astronaut Mark Kelly, is up for election to a full term after his special election victory a couple years ago. Kelly is a remarkably strong candidate; he’s a Space Shuttle commander, the husband of former congresswoman and gun violence survivor Gabby Giffords, a Navy veteran, the son of police officers, and… did we mention he’s an astronaut. He became the first Democrat since the 1960s to hold the Senate seat that was formerly Barry Goldwater’s and then John McCain’s, unseating the appointed Republican, Martha McSally (who has an impressive background herself).

Many outlets have impressed just how competitive the race for this seat is and how much danger Mark Kelly is in, but contrary to our more conservative ratings instincts, we actually feel that this race is less competitive and that Kelly is safer than is being let on. To be clear, Kelly is not a shoe-in, and there is a serious chance he could lose this race; but this is definitely a race more likely to go for the Democrat than not. Not only does Kelly consistently lead in the polls, but there are some fundamentals in this race that are positive for the Democrat. Here is our logic:

First, Arizona has become more Democratic leaning. Let’s start with the obvious – in contrast to many other states with competitive Senate races this year, Arizona has neither become more Republican over the last decade (as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have); or been stuck as perennially competitive (as Nevada has). Arizona has gone from a reliably Republican state to one that the Democratic presidential candidate actually won (with two Democratic senators to boot). This makes it more similar to Georgia in its electoral trajectory than it does North Carolina or Nevada (though Arizona and Nevada are very similar based on their demographic makeup). That Democrats swung two Senate seats in two years in the state that once brought Republicans Barry Goldwater and John McCain to the national forefront is a Californian turnaround. Though there will be a reversion to the mean as Democrats national political fortunes have deflated, and Arizona is not quite a Democratic-leaning state yet, you’d rather be a Democrat in Arizona in the 2020s than a Republican.

Second, Kelly is a vibrant, dynamic, and broadly appealing Democrat. There’s a reason he’s the state’s most popular senator, and no – it’s not just because he’s an astronaut. Though Arizona is a “mavericky” state, Kelly has demonstrated himself to be much more of a team player than the state’s senior senator.1To be fair to Kyrsten Sinema here, as of August 2022 she actually votes in line with the president’s agenda about 94% of the time, which puts her in line with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and Mark Kelly too. There are a number of Democrats who do not get as much flak but who actually vote against the president’s agenda more often, including Montana’s Jon Tester and both of Nevada’s senators (Jacky Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto). But Sinema goes to lengths to feed this perception. He preaches bipartisanship and has dinged the president’s response to border issues, which feels more in touch to Arizona than does protecting high earners from tax cuts in a state that has an average income below the national average. He has also pressured the president to expand oil leases, a politically astute calculation given Arizona’s higher-than-average gasoline prices. This outward explanation and news-grabbing contrasts with the rest of the Democratic Party and appears to be a more effective strategy to explain disagreements and solutions than the close-to-the-chest stratagem employed by Kyrsten Sinema. There’s also something genuinely inspiring about Mark Kelly’s story, from combat missions during Desert Storm to launching into space and culminating in a family tragedy that lead him to politically avenge his wife. That he is able to effectively use his story, differ with the president when necessary, and explain why and how he hopes to achieve solutions is a reason to bet on his political prospects.

Third, Kelly’s opponent could do him favors. Let’s finally turn to who Kelly will face in the general election – former Thiel Foundation president Blake Masters, a venture capitalist and Peter Thiel’s protégé. For those who don’t know, Thiel is a billionaire who co-founded PayPal and Palantir, an early investor in Facebook, and is now increasingly involving himself in the modern conservative movement – backing right-wing candidates like Donald Trump, Ohio Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance, and Masters. This may sound a bit out of touch and Trumpy for a formerly Republican-leaning state that swung hard against the former president, but that’s where Masters draws a lot of inspiration anyway.

Masters’ past is littered with fringe political views that, before 2015, would have destroyed any number of prospective Senate candidates. His opinions as a student at Stanford were drudged up, which included an approving quote of Nazi war criminal Hermann Goering. A “former libertarian,” Masters also once called for “unrestricted” immigration which, though he’s now describing illegal immigration as an “invasion,” could give Kelly a unique opening to run to the right of Masters on immigration in the border state. Then again, both of Thiel’s big Senate candidates, Masters and Vance, have leaned on the “great replacement” conspiracy theory that suggests there is some maniacal plot to destroy the political power of whites in America. This segways nicely into his other prominent conspiracy of choice: that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump; something that was in no way just an opportunistic ploy to get Trump’s coveted endorsement, right? Masters also opposes gay marriage (or at least, the Supreme Court ruling on it) – which gives me an apt opening to note that Thiel is, in fact, gay. 

This gives Kelly a lot to work with as he paints Masters as a fringe right-wing candidate in a state that seems to be moving in the opposite direction. But that’s not all. Masters’ lack of any political experience could also lift Kelly’s prospects as Masters’ positions on American aid to Ukraine (he’s against it) and privatizing social security (he’s open to it) eschew political normalcy, whereas Kelly’s status as a veteran and pragmatic experience in Washington will work to his credit in November. And while Republicans have tried to pin immigration issues to Kelly, emphasizing crises on the border and attempting to tether him to the Biden administration’s unpopular border policies, as noted earlier, Kelly is at least communicating about this issue effectively and differentiating himself while sounding sane. That’s more than can be said for most politicians, especially those in Arizona.

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