Oftentimes when a governor appoints a senator due to a vacancy, it can lead to a fierce primary fight within the incumbent party or the elevation of a weak candidate that can lead to some strange results, like a Democrat winning in Alabama or a Republican winning in Massachusetts. So it’s a good sign for Democrats that Alex Padilla, who was appointed as California’s first Latino senator after Kamala Harris ascended to the vice presidency, faced only fringe opposition within his own party (Congressman Ro Khanna, the co-chair of Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign and Padilla’s most likely intra-party opponent, mulled a run but decided to endorse Padilla instead) and captured over 50% of the vote in the state’s top two primary. 

Padilla is the heavy favorite against Republican Mark Meuser, a Pasadena-based attorney who received the California Republican Party’s official endorsement but only 14.9% of the primary vote. As last year’s failed recall of Governor Gavin Newsom demonstrated, California is still a very blue state, and Padilla should have little trouble winning against Meuser, a candidate with no prior public experience who he was able to dispatch in the 2018 Secretary of State race. But the fact that Meuser became the first Republican to reach the second round of a California Senate race since 2012 could be a signal of how Republican the electoral environment is and spell trouble for Padilla’s more vulnerable colleagues. 

See all 2022 Senate Ratings | Methodology