Not since Florida started a recount in 2000 has a state grasped the attention of the nation like Georgia did in 2020 and early 2021, when the state’s two Senate elections went to a runoff after no candidate in either race received at more than 50% of the vote. Both races would go the Democrats way, ensuring a 50/50 split in the Senate and – thanks to Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ victory in the presidential election – Democratic control of the chamber. In the regular race, journalist and one time congressional candidate Jon Ossoff defeated incumbent David Perdue, while in the special election, Raphael Warnock, a political neophyte and the pastor of the Ebenezer Baptist Church defeated the Brian Kemp-appointed Kelly Loeffler for the right to finish the term of the recently retired Johnny Isakson, shifting the public perception of Georgia from a Republican stronghold into a vital swing state. 

Thus far in his Senate career, Warnock has been a vocal opponent of restrictive voting laws, and has advocated for passage of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and the For the People Act, and has even said that he’d be willing to eliminate the filibuster to get them passed. He’s also emerged as a natural campaigner, deploying his pastoral speaking skills at campaign events and touting his bipartisan achievements, which includes cosponsoring an amendment to the infrastructure bill with Republican Texas Senator Ted Cruz. He does come with some baggage, however, which includes a 2002 arrest for obstructing a child abuse probe at a church camp he helped run (the charges were later dropped with a prosecutor describing the incident as a “miscommunication”) and a contentious divorce and custody dispute with his ex-wife, who alleges that Warnock ran over her foot with his Tesla (paramedics found no injury). 

Speaking of baggage, Warnock’s Republican opponent is Herschel Walker, a former Heisman Trophy-winning running back at the University of Georgia whose relationship with Donald Trump goes all the way back to 1983, when Trump bought the New Jersey Generals of the USFL, who Walker played for at the time. Walker became a vocal Trump booster in 2016 and 2020, and was even appointed to the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition in 2018. After helping to spread some election related conspiracy theories in 2020, Walker reestablished his residency in Georgia (he had been living in Texas) and received Trump’s endorsement for the Senate, effectively clearing the Republican primary field. On the surface, Walker is a perfect fit for the seat – he’s already a legend in Georgia, and his ability to attract Black voters (Warnock and Walker are the first two Black major party Senate nominees to go head to head in the South) could help eat into the tiny margins Democrats won to flip the Peach State. But Walker’s history is, to put it politely, checkered. Walker’s ex-wife, Cindy Grossman, has accused him of pointing a pistol to her head and holding a straight razor to her neck and threatening to kill her, behavior that prompted a judge to grant her a restraining order and temporarily prevent Walker from purchasing a gun. In June, it was revealed that, in addition to Christian, his son with Grossman (and something of a conservative influencer), Walker fathered three other children outside of his marriage. According to Walker, who had not publicly acknowledged these children before this year, claims that he wasn’t “hiding” them, just trying to keep them out of politics. But reporting from The Daily Beast revealed that he concealed the existence of these children to people working on his own campaign, and only owned up to their existence after being presented with evidence.  

In terms of Walker’s actual campaign, things have been off to a bizarre start. Walker is not a particularly gifted public speaker, and a clip of Walker discussing “bad air” floating from China over the United States went viral, reinforcing the idea that he may not have the clearest grasp on policy issues. He’s also more or less ducked debating Warnock, committing to appear at one debate that Warnock did not commit to participate in (which also happens to provide the questions ahead of time), and not committing to appear in any of the debates Warnock did commit to. 

But despite Walker’s many controversies, most polls still show the race within the low single digits, enough to make him a real threat to Warnock. So what’s going on? Well, it’s worth remembering that, although the trends in Georgia are promising for Democrats, their victories in 2020 were still very close – Warnock and Ossoff won their respective runoffs by two points and just over one point respectively, and Biden won the state by less than one percent. It’s also worth noting that, while recent projections have given Democrats a decent chance of retaining the Senate, 2022 still figures to be an Republican-leaning year, and the quirks of thermostatic public opinion can really eat into the small margins Warnock, Ossoff, and Biden won with two years ago. Even Colorado, which Obama helped turn into a reliably Democratic state in 2008 and 2012, still ended up electing Republican Cory Gardner to the Senate in 2014.

Of course, Trump’s popularity (or lack thereof) in Georgia could be a bit of a wildcard – the former president’s endorsees for governor, attorney general, and secretary of state all lost their Republican primaries handily to incumbents who refused to help Trump overturn the election, and few of his endorsees for Congress won either – when it comes to having Trump’s support, Walker is a bit of an outlier. If Trump is anywhere as active a campaigner in Georgia as he was in 2020 and 2021, it could actually have the opposite effect and remind many independents and moderate Republicans why they voted against him and his party nearly two years ago. But he’s managed to stay out of the race so far, letting Walker (for better or for worse) define himself, and leaving Georgia as one of 2022’s true toss-ups.

See all 2022 Senate Ratings | Methodology