Initial Rating: Idaho Senate Race
Safe Republican
Among the least interesting Senate races this cycle is the one in Idaho. (What an intriguing lead that inspires you to continue reading, right?) Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo is seeking his fifth term this cycle and will almost certainly defeat Democratic challenger David Roth (whose claim to fame is his 2020 nomination for a state legislative seat that he lost by over 30 points in the general election). Idaho is a very red state and Crapo’s got endorsements from the NRA, Pro-Israel America, and the 45th President of the United States backing him up, so his victory isn’t really in doubt.
Acknowledging his imminent win, let’s focus for a minute on the current and future senator from Idaho. Crapo is a “have your cake and eat it too” kind of Republican. In 2006, regarding President Bush’s Supreme Court nomination of Samuel Alito, he said, “All of the President’s nominees deserve up-and-down votes and not efforts to obstruct judicial nominees for political purposes.” But in 2016, with President Obama’s judicial nominee up, he supported the Republican strategy not to hold a vote and noted that “the current Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by an individual nominated by the next President of the United States.” Of course, when 2020 rolled around and Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on the court, Crapo supported an immediate vote on Trump’s nominee with less than 60 days until the presidential election. After January 6, 2021, Crapo called for the perpetrators to be “prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law” and said “what we witnessed at the U.S. Capitol today was not peaceful; such violence is wholly unacceptable.” Afterwards, he said he would not join the efforts to reject “validly certified Electoral College votes.” He later stated he was against any process to remove Trump in the waning days of his presidency and ultimately voted against the January 6 commission.
The New York Times called him “a hero of bipartisanship,” but as Betsy Z. Russell asked in a Q and A with Crapo in The Idaho Press, “But your rhetoric is extremely partisan. Why the difference there?” He dithered, dodged, and eventually blamed Biden (interesting given Biden didn’t become president until a year-and-a-half ago). Towards the end of the interview, he was asked about the lack of competition he faces in this (and in past) campaigns. Notably unconcerned with losing his seat, Crapo protested, “I take every campaign seriously … and run a full, solid campaign to get my message out.” Whether that’s true or not, it won’t matter. Mike Crapo is here to stay.