We were perhaps too generous to Iowa in our 2020 forecasts, rating both its Senate race and presidential race as toss-ups due to an array of competitive polls and an assumption that it would revert to the mean after flipping to Trump in 2016 while having gone for Obama by 9.5% in 2008 and 5.8% in 2012. To be fair, we weren’t alone. FiveThirtyEight and The Economist both had models with a close race in Iowa at the presidential and Senate level, but Iowa swung pretty hard to the right regardless. Trump carried the state by about 8% over Biden and incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst got a margin of almost 7% over Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield.

So in 2021, noting the trend, we went into a little more depth on Iowa in one of the pieces in our “Midwestern Reality” series. In our feature on Iowa and Ohio, we noted that “both Iowa and Ohio are now more Republican leaning than Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas. That’s a far cry from Iowa’s reputation as a microcosm of small town America that prospective presidents of both parties would pay heed to in order to curry favor with rural voters.” We used that to build up the case that “Democrats’ continued focus on these states at the expense of others is a dangerous risk that carries little reward. These are states they do not need to win, whether they’re willing to admit it or not.” And that seems both prescient and – fortunately for Democrats – apt given the tightness of the national race for control of the Senate this cycle.

Up this round is incumbent Republican Senator Chuck Grassley, who was first elected in 1980 and is now seeking his eighth term! Grassley’s victory would award him numerous superlatives – he’d become the most senior member of the Senate, the longest serving Republican Senator in history, and the longest-serving member of Congress overall. But, Grassley will also be 89 years old, and we’ll get back to why that’s important in a minute.

The Democratic challenger is retired Navy Vice Admiral Michael Franken, who was once an aide to former Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy. And while Franken’s resume is impressive, and his victory in the Democratic primary was a bit of a surprise that potentially even gave Democrats a better candidate in the general (Franken is running as an “all over the map” candidate who can appeal to independents and Republicans as well), he’s very unlikely to unseat Grassley. Polls show an 8 point race, but even that is probably optimistic for Democrats – Grassley has not received less than 60% of the statewide vote since his first election in 1980. So, having established that Grassley will almost certainly sweep again, why is his age so important? 

It’s because there was wide speculation Grassley would retire up until he announced his intent to seek reelection in September of 2021. This came after lobbying by Republican leadership buoyed by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell’s sole motivation of reclaiming a Republican majority. Do we expect Grassley to continue to hold the seat until his next term ends, when he’ll be 95? No – but the assumption is that McConnell and the Republican Senate campaign arm don’t either. They wanted Grassley to run to keep the race safely in GOP hands, allowing them to focus resources elsewhere, and should Grassley decide to retire in a year or two, the Republican governor of Iowa could appoint the successor and a special election would get the focus thereafter. It’s a clever electoral strategy by Republicans who are anxious not to have to guard their flank in a cycle where they’re rearing to pick off a few Democrats.

See all 2022 Senate Ratings | Methodology