As incumbent Republican Senator Jerry Moran vies for his third term, many readers may wonder whether the landslide defeat of the anti-abortion amendment on Kansas’ early-August primary ballot is a sign of Republican fortunes in November. We’d push back on that for a couple reasons: first of all, the result – contrary to most reporting – was fairly predictable to anyone who has watched Kansas politics for the last couple decades. And second, it falls in line with a trend over the last ten years in which Republican-leaning states have nonetheless voted to expand Medicaid and legalize marijuana in statewide initiatives. Despite the impressive margin of victory for abortion rights, this doesn’t mean Kansas is suddenly a blue-leaning state. It just means most voters in Kansas (like most voters nationally) do not want to restrict abortion rights. 

This also doesn’t mean Kansas isn’t still a Republican-leaning state. It is still around 20% more Republican that the nation as a whole and though trendlines are favorable for Democrats and the state regularly elects Democratic governors (it has not elected two governors from the same party in a row since the 1960s), getting past this deep disadvantage has proved insurmountable for Democrats running for Senate in the Sunflower State. Both of the state’s Senate seats have been held by Republicans since the 1930s, which is the longest streak of a single party controlling both of a state’s seats. In the 21st century, no election for Senate in the state has put the Democrat within 10% of the Republican. In 2022, that won’t change. 

Democratic candidate Mark Holland, who is a United Methodist pastor and former mayor of Kansas City, will likely stick to the Democratic playbook in the state. That’s to say he’ll run as a moderate, understated, faith-driven pragmatist – but this playbook hasn’t yet worked in its Senate races (to be fair, running as a leftist firebrand would almost certainly work less). Moran’s win isn’t in doubt, but it’ll be interesting to see whether Kansas awards him the 62% of the vote he received six years ago, or if Democrats continue to make incremental gains in the suburban heartland.

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