Initial Rating: Kentucky Senate Race
Safe Republican
In 2020, nobody’s profile was raised more by losing a primary than the progressive, Bernie Sanders- and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-endorsed Kentucky state Representative Charles Booker, who lost his state’s Democratic Senate primary by less three points to the DSCC endorsed Amy McGrath and delivered a memorable concession statement where he thanked his supporters from “the hood to the holler.” That five word phrase has become Booker’s tagline and the title of his 2022 memoir, a progressive non-profit he founded, and a documentary about his 2020 campaign, a big tent branding effort that lead up to this year’s successful nomination campaign. Booker, who supports progressive policies like Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, and even universal basic income, is hoping that his platform will appeal to voters in both his urban Louisville state House district and whiter, more rural corners of Kentucky, testing the progressive theory that if you just make a persuasive enough case for left wing policies, working class voters will realize that they’ve actually been progressives all along and vote accordingly.
Unfortunately for Booker, this kind of a victory, or really any victory at all, is very unlikely. His opponent is incumbent Senator Rand Paul, son of libertarian icon Ron Paul and one of the most proudly obstructionist members of the upper chamber. There’s nothing this guy loves to do more than vote against legislation – even bills increasing security for Supreme Court Justices and funding Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion (a no vote that got him on the Security Service of Ukraine’s list of Russian propagandists) can’t get his co-sign. Like most “small government” conservatives, his advocacy for individual rights doesn’t extended to abortion or LGBTQ issues – but he has been the Republican face of criminal justice reform and an outspoken critic of warrantless government surveillance. Whatever his ideological inconsistencies, it shouldn’t hurt his chances in Kentucky – despite narrowly electing a Democratic governor in 2019, the Bluegrass State remains the 7th most Republican state according to Cook PVI, and as such should deliver Paul a fairly comfy win.