Louisiana is always a weird one for election handicappers because its elections are often handled in a couple stages: a primary in which all candidates of all parties compete on the same ballot and then, should none of them get over 50% of the vote outright, a runoff election between the top-two finishers. This is called a “jungle primary” and Louisiana is the only state with this system (though states like California and Washington have similar mechanisms). In 2016, Louisiana’s Republican State Treasurer John Kennedy ran for Senate for the third time (in 2008 he ran against incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu and lost; four years prior he ran as a Democrat and did not make it to the second round, ultimately losing to Republican David Vitter) and got 25% of the vote in the first round, facing off against Democrat Foster Campbell a month later in the runoff.

Kennedy won his seat with about 61% of the vote and embarked on what has been a conservative streak in the Senate. He is well known in the chamber for his anti-abortion rights stance, folksy demeanor, and opposition to criminal justice reform (he was one of only 12 senators who opposed 2018’s First Step Act, a bipartisan criminal justice reform bill). He objected to the certification of electoral votes even after what he called the “despicable and shameful” storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021. And yet, Kennedy also opposed a number of Trump’s judicial nominees because he felt they weren’t qualified enough and was one of only three Republican senators to vote with the Democrats to override the FCC’s repeal of net neutrality so, there’s something of a populist traditionalist in him as well.

There are at least two Democrats who have a chance to make it to the runoff if Kennedy doesn’t get the majority outright (which he very well may as there isn’t a serious Republican challenger to the incumbent). Activist and former congressional and state senate candidate Gary Chambers is the Democratic frontrunner, with a number of local endorsements. He’s a progressive who is unabashedly running as such, notably becoming the first Senate candidate to smoke pot in an ad spot he was running, and discussing the racial disparities in drug-related arrests. The other Democratic candidate is former Navy man Luke Mixon who has been endorsed by the state’s Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards and who hopes to duplicate Edwards’ strategy by emphasizing his military service and pragmatic intentions to govern. Unfortunately for Mixon, that’s an easier path for a prospective governor than it is a prospective senator (see our piece on Maryland, where there was the potential for the inverted scenario), and partisanship will win the day in Louisiana, giving Kennedy a second term.

See all 2022 Senate Ratings | Methodology