Incumbent Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen’s quest for a second term could have been more interesting. For a while it looked like he’d seriously have a chance of facing the popular Republican governor of the state, Larry Hogan. But, despite intense recruitment efforts from Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, Hogan decided not to pursue the office. Hogan would have made the race competitive, as he is among the most popular governors in the country (turns out Americans really like moderate Republican governors…) but he likely made the right decision for his own political future. Many assume Hogan has presidential aspirations, trying to leverage his moderate and Democratic appeal (anecdotally, living in the DC area, I know many progressive people who live in Maryland – but I don’t know a single one of them who didn’t vote for Hogan in 2018) to reclaim the Republican Party away from its Trumpian obsession. Though he’d certainly face long odds in any national GOP primary, a loss in a close Senate race against an incumbent Democrat and a failure to round out his second term as governor while maintaining a campaign schedule may hinder those ambitions, so he’s probably made the right choice either way.

So why did we just spend a whole paragraph telling you about a guy who isn’t even running? First, because it’s interesting. Second, because the Maryland Senate race is ultimately quite mundane. Van Hollen will easily secure a second term against the Republican nominee and perennial candidate Chris Chaffee. Chaffee has run in primaries for the Senate and House of Representatives a number of times and rarely even makes it to the general. But, this time the “homebuilding contractor” has made it to the general and is running a foolishly conservative campaign given how Democratic Maryland is. His low budget Twitter presence really underscores how out of touch he is, with photos of scandalous Florida Representative Matt Gaetz, conspiracy theories about CIA control of Senate elections, and something about “weather weapons.” No, in fact, the Republican nominee for Senate in Maryland has about 250 followers on Twitter as of August – and while that means nothing when it comes to Election Day, it’s a pretty good sign there’s not a lot of Republican hope in the state.

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