What can be said about the Nevada Senate race that we haven’t already said before? Throughout this year, we’ve pitched this race to our readers as the most competitive this cycle, and then gone farther to argue that it is actually the most important race in the entire 2022 election. That hasn’t changed since this spring, even after the dust from the exciting Nevada primary settled, revealing mixed takeaways for both Nevada Democrats and Republicans.

And while Nevada must now reckon with three competitive House elections, a tight race for governor between a Democratic incumbent in a tricky situation and one of the most significant sheriffs in the country, and elections for secretary of state and attorney general that could elevate some election deniers, don’t be mistaken – the Silver State’s Senate race will dominate the coverage. Incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto took up Harry Reid’s seat in 2017, one of the few bright spots for Democrats in an otherwise rough election year. Reid had long been one of the most famous politicians in Nevada and served as Senate Democratic Leader for most of the 21st century thus far, so Cortez Masto had big shoes to fill. And yet, Cortez Masto has often eschewed the national spotlight, declining to be considered as Biden’s running mate in 2020 and marking her term in the Senate with policy discipline and little grandstanding. You’d be forgiven for not knowing she’s actually the first Latina senator in American history as she’s much more politics-shy than her machiavellian predecessor. And yet, she remains a prolific fundraiser and has stayed on-message in her reelect regarding issues facing actual Nevadans rather than focus on national Democrats, so what are the strikes against her?

There are four distinct challenges to Cortez Masto’s reelection and they set her apart from any other Democratic incumbent running this cycle:

First, contrary to popular imagination, Nevada has not convincingly swung towards Democrats. We wrote a few months ago that it’s the anti-Florida – elections always seem close (and they are, usually decided by just a few points) but ultimately they have pretty consistently gone for Democrats in the last few cycles. The problem is that, unlike many states in the Midwest, or states like Georgia or Texas in the South, we cannot draw a definitive trendline to show that over the 21st century Nevada has shifted to favor one party or the other. Given that every election since 2014 has at least favored Democrats at the national level, and most elections in Nevada since have narrowly gone for Democrats, it seems likely that in a Republican-leaning year like 2022 Republicans could pick up some wins.

Second, there are many high profile and competitive races in Nevada. We mentioned the three competitive House races, which could very well determine control of the House in the 118th Congress, but there’s the gubernatorial election and other statewide executive elections too. And there’s a lot of angry energy by Nevada Republicans after the state and its reliance on tourism and services suffered disproportionately from the COVID-19 pandemic and its pursuant regulations. Think your gas prices are high? Well unless you live in California or Hawaii, they’re probably higher in Nevada. Inflation is also particularly high in the Silver State, so voters may be inclined – even more so than in other states – to punish the party in power. Democrats in Colorado or Maryland may be saved by relatively uncompetitive state races boring Republicans in their blue-leaning states, but in Nevada there’s high motivation in almost every race. Whether that benefits Democrats or Republicans is to be seen.

Third, the Democratic machine in Nevada collapsed. Once widely acclaimed, the “Reid machine” fell apart due to infighting between progressive and establishment Democrats. It lost its major power broker and a lack of national attention proved too much for the machine to handle. Nevada went for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 2008 (though by increasingly narrow margins), causing many Democrats to take the state for granted, and the loss of Reid revealed deep divisions in the state’s Democratic Party as their agent of deliverance stopped binding the coalition together. The state’s highly transient population, low rate of college education, and economic headwinds may be enough to overcome what is left of the declining Democratic organizing in the Silver State.

Fourth, her opponent isn’t a joke. In contrast to Republican nominees in Georgia or Pennsylvania, Cortez Masto will face Adam Laxalt, the former attorney general of the state. He’s not a nobody in the vein of some of the other GOP standard-bearers this cycle. In fact he’s a descendant of a name that rivals Reid’s in Nevada politics: Paul Laxalt, their former Republican governor and senator. Laxalt did not face a particularly intense primary either, coalescing support across the party early on, so he emerged as a clear front-runner. This pits what is essentially a generic Democrat against a generic Republican in a state that is right on the margin in a year that favors the GOP. 

Essentially, Laxalt is acceptable, digestible, and not running as a complete madman. He’s further to the right than Republicans in the state have historically been, but Republicans don’t care, and Democrats will struggle to overcome the other prevailing obstacles in a close state. So, watch this state, watch this race, and know that it is very likely to determine control of the Senate this election. Appropriately for Nevada and its speculative pastime, the stakes are high.

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