If there was any bright spot for the Democrats in 2016, it was then-Governor Maggie Hassan’s razor thin victory over incumbent Republican Kelly Ayotte for the right to represent New Hampshire in the Senate. Hassan’s 1,017 vote victory was the closest of the 2016 cycle, and provided newly elected President Donald Trump (who barely lost the state to Hillary Clinton in what was the second closest result at the presidential election) and some New Hampshire Republicans with an opportunity to test out some voter fraud conspiracy theories before they went all in on the tactic in 2020. Representing the swingiest state in New England, Hassan has taken fairly moderate stances, opposing a $15 minimum wage, the legalization of recreational marijuana, and the loosening of Trump era border restrictions. But President Joe Biden’s flagging approval ratings, a few staff related controversies, and New Hampshire Republicans’ success in winning state level offices in 2020 made Hassan appear vulnerable. Republicans also felt like they had the perfect recruit in incumbent Governor Chris Sununu, who managed to placate hardliners via his support for Trump while also accepting the results of the 2020 election. But, perhaps considering a presidential run in the future, Sununu opted to take the easy win by running for a fourth two year term as governor.

Sununu’s decision not to run sparked a contentious primary with eleven different candidates, the two most prominent being New Hampshire State Senate President Chuck Morse and retired Army Brigadier General Don Bolduc. Morse gained the support of Sununu and other members of New Hampshire’s Republican establishment while Bolduc – who has endorsed Trump’s unfounded voter fraud allegations, accused Sununu of being a “Chinese Communist Party sympathizer,” and believes that COVID-19 vaccines contained a Bill Gates designed microchip (“the only chip that’s going in me is a Dorito”) – was endorsed by Trump’s controversial 22-day-long National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. Bolduc won the primary by just over a point, and delivered a victory speech while wearing a star spangled polo shirt and holding an arrow pierced shield.

As we’ve already mentioned, most New Hampshire Republicans had a pretty good 2020. Sununu cruised to reelection, and Republicans regained control of the State Senate, House, and Executive Council (think of it as an elected cabinet that can veto certain gubernatorial decisions). But they underperformed at the federal level, where Biden, Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, and Democratic Representatives Chris Pappas and Ann McLane Kuster all won over 50% of the vote in their respective races. Bolduc certainly has a chance in this race – we are still talking about tax-hating, quasi-libertarian New Hampshire, after all – but the national environment’s post-Dobbs shift away from Republicans paired with Republican nominee’s extreme rhetoric has provided Hassan with some momentum, which is why we currently rate this state as Likely Democratic. It looks like Bolduc might agree with us too – just days after winning the nomination, he abruptly backtracked on his claims of a stolen election, affirming “President Biden is the legitimate president of this country.” Too little too late or a shrewd pivot to the center? We’ll find out in November. 

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