Oregon holds a lot of potential for Republicans. It’s a large western state with lots of white voters and most of the state (geographically speaking) is deep red. But, as Colorado and Washington can attest, these factors do not make for a winning Republican coalition in the ways you’d think they should. That’s not to say it’s never been close in recent memory – John Kerry only won the Beaver State by 4% of the vote in 2004 and Al Gore scraped by a margin of less than half of a percent in 2000 – but it’s only gotten more Democratic since and hasn’t seen a Republican senator elected in 20 years, or a Republican governor elected in 40. So it’s easy to think a Republican has no chance of winning the Senate seat this year… and they don’t. But they could have if they tried a little harder.

Ron Wyden is the Democratic incumbent, now running for his fifth term. He’s understated in the chamber, yet his decades-long record offers Democrats a lot to love: he was the first Senate candidate and senator to support same-sex marriage, he has a strong civil liberties voting record, he voted against authorizing military force in Iraq and opposed the 2009 “troop surge” in Afghanistan. Unlike many western Democrats he’s outspoken on gun control, and he’s outspoken on climate and health care issues. Having represented Oregon in one office or another (he was elected to the House of Representatives in 1980) for over 40 years, it’s very likely the increasingly Democratic-leaning state will reward him with another six years. 

But let’s meet the challenger, who we’ve actually talked about before. Jo Rae Perkins came up last cycle when she was the Republican nominee against Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley in Oregon and ultimately lost by over 17% of the vote. A perennial candidate in Oregon politics, Perkins is a devout QAnon conspiracy supporter, which is about all she’s famous for despite now having been the Republican nominee in two consecutive Senate elections. Perkins is running on issues you’d expect a QAnon follower to be running on: that scientists are wrong about COVID-19, stopping the steal, and anti-choice (except when it comes to vaccines) policies. Needless to say, in a blue state that Biden easily won, Wyden can expect to win that fifth term.

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