Coming into this year’s midterms, we all knew that the open Senate seat in Pennsylvania – a Trump-Biden state that boasts a rich mix of deep red rural areas, deep blue urban areas, and purple suburbs – would be one of the most important races of the year, but few probably anticipated it would be this colorful. The race between Republican Mehmet Oz and Democrat John Fetterman has included accusations of carpetbagging, a sudden illness, and measuring inflation via cruditès, building up to a fierce – if not occasionally petty – battle for the most likely Democratic pickup, a seat that they haven’t won since 1962.

If you know only one of the candidate’s in this race, it’s probably Oz, a retired cardiothoracic surgeon who hosted The Dr. Oz Show for 13 seasons; a show that attracted controversy for its promotion of pseudoscientific remedies, a habit that got him hauled before a Senate subcommittee. Appointed to the President’s Council on Sports, Fitness, and Nutrition by Donald Trump, Oz also pushed for hydroxychloroquine to be used to treat COVID-19 and called for Anthony Fauci to be fired as Chief Medical Advisor to the President (after announcing his candidacy for the Senate, Oz himself would be fired from the PCSFN). A longtime resident of New Jersey, Oz moved to Pennsylvania for the express purpose of running for Senate, and garnered Trump’s endorsement in a tight Republican primary that had to be decided via automatic recount, with Oz declared the winner over two weeks after votes were cast.

This delay in victory meant Oz ceded serious campaigning ground to Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, who easily won the Democratic primary. A former mayor of Braddock, Pennsylvania running on a platform that David A. Graham of The Atlantic deemed “workers, wages, and weed,” the bearded, 6-foot-8 Fetterman garnered few endorsements from Pennsylvania’s Democratic establishment, who favored moderate Congressman Conor Lamb. Fetterman, who rarely wears a suit, is testing out theory that progressice policies presented in a working class package could help Democrats make inroads among non-college educated white voters, a demographic that’s swung hard to the Republicans in recent elections.

The Democrat (who, despite his aesthetics, grew up in a wealthy family) has embraced the class warrior image, mocking Oz for his New Jersey residence, his multiple homes, and his shi-shi taste in appetizers. If the polls can be trusted, it’s been an effective approach – Fetterman has led in nearly every survey taken since the primaries, occasionally by double digits. But his campaign has been confined primarily to Twitter – Fetterman suffered a stroke in February, and was only discharged from the hospital on May 22, a few days after the primary. While he recorded a series of heavily edited video messages for his Twitter account, Fetterman didn’t make a public appearance until August, where he appeared healthy but, in the words of Politico, displayed a “halted” speech pattern. Oz’s campaign has banked hard on the idea that Fetterman is not well enough to serve, demanding that the candidates face off in five debates (for reference, the last two Pennsylvania Senate campaigns only featured two debates), betting that the former talk show host will shine in front of TV cameras and reverse the trend towards Fetterman. It’s not a bad strategy – Pennsylvania is a swingy enough state that a few bad public appearances by Fetterman could be enough to swing the momentum towards Oz. But according to Politico, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is concerned about Oz’s favorability polling and his poor fundraising, a situation compounded by the NRSC pulling $5 million worth of ads from the Philadelphia market. A lot can and will happen between now and November, and Democrats have been lulled into a false sense of security in the Keystone State before, but there have been a lot of red flags for Oz thus far, enough for us to give Fetterman the slight edge for the time being. 

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