Incumbent Republican Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott has been having a moment the last couple of years. As a Black Republican, he’s managed to successfully thread the needle between the more racist elements of his party and its former president and the reexamination of race in America that has come to a boiling point in the last few years. And despite his neoconservative instincts, he’s managed to stay in Trumpworld’s good graces, and is considered one of the frontrunners for the vice presidential spot should Trump make a triumphant return. One step up, Scott is also seen as a strong candidate in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. All this after he’s softly criticized the former administration a number of times for its approach on issues of race and trade policy. But his appeal is undeniable to Republicans – here’s someone who can talk about race with credibility and a conscience, while espousing otherwise pro-MAGA views. It shuts off a lot of Democratic criticism against the GOP when Scott is on the ticket, despite the fact Scott still carries very conservative views. 

Up for reelection for what he’s said will be his “last one,” Scott will face little serious competition from Democratic nominee Krystle Matthews, a state representative. Matthews has had some stumbles, but even were she running a stronger campaign, she’d lose – South Carolina just isn’t prepared to elect a Democrat. In 2020, embattled Republican Senator Lindsey Graham fought back what seemed to be a strong challenge by Democrat Jaime Harrison in a race where Harrison seemed to have momentum, a fundraising advantage, and closed in on Graham in the polls; Graham won by over 10%. Matthews doesn’t have any advantage there, as Tim Scott polls better than Lindsey Graham (in fact, in this poll, Scott has a 66% approval rating in the state; whereas Graham has a 58% disapproval rating) to begin with and South Carolina hasn’t showed any new warmth to Democrats in the last two years. But Matthews, who is also Black, will also struggle to get past audio released by the conservative activist group Project Veritas in which Matthews asked “where the fuck is my Black people with money? Give me that dope boy money… find you somebody in your family that doesn’t even know you are donating to my campaign, and put it under their name.” Matthews has characterized the recording as “tongue in cheek” and apologized, but frankly, tape or not, she never really had a chance to dethrone Scott.

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